Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Thursday, the benchmark index NIFTY 50 closed at 17,248 (+0.2%), 27 points higher. Among the sectoral indices, IT (+1.2%), CONSUMER DURABLES (+0.4%), and OIL & GAS (+0.3%) led the gainers, while MEDIA (-1.8%), PSU BANK (-1.0%), and PHARMA (-0.9%) led the laggards. Among the NIFTY50 components, BAJFINANCE (+2.9%), INFY (+2.5%), and BPCL (+2%) were the top gainers while HINDALCO (-1.8%), CIPLA (-1.5%), and SUNPHARMA (-1.4%) led the laggards.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Ramesh Swaminathan, ED & Global CFO (LUPIN) with CNBC-TV18 on 15th December 2021:
- The Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) that comes with Voluntary Action Indicated (VAI) means that the warning letter issued in 2017 on Lupin’s Goa plant has been lifted. LUPIN has about 109 products that are yet to be approved by the FDA and 24-25 out of these are from the Goa unit.
- LUPIN expects a lot more approvals to come through from this unit over the next few weeks.
- There has been a lag in LUPIN’s top line because approvals were not coming and the company was not able to leverage on the pipeline. LUPIN will launch new products as approvals start coming in from the Goa unit.
- This unit is important to LUPIN because 24-25% of the US turnover comes from it and more approvals coming through would help elevate LUPIN’s revenues.
- LUPIN’s other 3 facilities in India at Mandideep, Tarapur, Pithampur-II, and Somerset in the US also received warning letters which have affected their top line. It expects these units to get inspected over the next quarters and eventually contribute to the top line.
- LUPIN has a rich pipeline but they are also focusing on more complex products in terms of innovations like complex injectables and biosimilars.
- They already got approval for Albuterol which indicates the progress they have had in inhalation products. They also introduced Brovana and Spiriva is on the anvil and a lot many to come in the inhalation segment.
- LUPIN’s facilities have been under the radar for the last 3-4 years and they have been constantly working on it. LUPIN believes they are in a state of readiness when it comes to India and they expect satisfactory solutions as and when the authorities inspect these facilities.
- LUPIN has been working on the common thread that exists between all of its facilities with its team of consultants and is confident in this regard.
- LUPIN is confident and prepared to launch Spiriva in the second half of FY23.
- As far as diagnostics are concerned, LUPIN is thinking big in that direction but it’s not going to be the most important for them. A huge chunk of this segment is fragmented and only 20% of it belongs to the organized sector so that leaves vast scope for it to become organized.
- LUPIN plans to follow a doctor-led scientific proposition with an ABL certificate.
Asset Multiplier Comments
- Due to travel restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 virus outbreak, the entire pharma industry has been experiencing a delay in its facilities getting inspected. As the travel restrictions have been lifted, the inspections are expected to pick up the pace.
- Many of the pharma companies have incurred Capex for new facilities or undertaken remediation of the FDA’s observations. As these facilities are yet to be inspected, there has been a lag in terms of contribution to revenues. Once the approvals start coming through, we expect the top line of companies like LUPIN to report good growth.
- LUPIN has been impacted by the price erosion in its generic segment in the USA. The impact of this is expected to be mitigated as the specialized products are launched.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Tikr websites)
- The closing price of LUPIN was ₹ 904/- as of 16-December-2021. It traded at 23x/ 17x the EPS estimates of ₹ 40/ 52/- for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
- The consensus target price of ₹ 985 implies a P/E Multiple of 20x on FY24 EPS estimate of ₹ 52/-.
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