Laurus labs

29 Mar

Antiretroviral API sales expected to normalize from 1QFY23 – Laurus Labs

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed at 17,325 (+0.6%) near the day’s high of 17,344. PHARMA (+1.5%), HEALTHCARE (+1.3%), and CONSUMER DURABLES (+1%) were the top sectoral gainers. MEDIA (-1.2%), PSU BANK (-0.8%), and OIL & GAS (-0.2%) led the sectoral losers. Among the NIFTY50 components, EICHERMOT (+4.5%), HDFC (+3.3%), and DIVISLAB (+3.2%) led the gainers. HEROMOTOCO (-6.7%), ONGC (-3%), and COALINDIA (-2.7%) led the losers.

Laurus Labs has been granted a license to manufacture Molnupiravir and Paxlovid, the COVID drugs from the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP).

Excerpts of an interview with Dr. Satyanarayana Chava, founder, and CEO, Laurus Labs (LAURUSLABS), with CNBC-TV18 on 28th March 2022:

  • To treat the COVID virus Paxlovid is a more effective drug compared to Molnupiravir. As the number of cases in Asia except in China and Africa is declining significantly.
  • On opportunity, Mr. Chava said, as an API or formulation for Paxlovid company didn’t see a great opportunity in the emerging markets. As the company got the license, they are preparing themselves to grab the opportunity available to them.
  • Mr. Chava added it will take 3 to 4 months for the company to file for regulatory approval after that it will see a clear picture of the opportunity for the company. It’s too early to comment on the opportunity and currently, the company doesn’t see any visibility.
  • Logistics challenges from China and higher prices of petrol-driven solvents are impacting margins but due to the company’s scale, it can manage the impact better than its peers. The company has the challenge of passing higher input costs to customers.
  • On the margins front, the Company can maintain its EBITDA margin of ~30% and the company expects despite the input cost challenges company will be able to manage its margins.
  • The company has 11 final approvals and several tentative approvals for antiretroviral to sell in low and middle-income country (LMIC) markets. The company expects two more final approvals lined up in the coming months.
  • In FY22 company has a challenge in antiretroviral API sales but the company expects 4QFY22 will be a better quarter. From 1QFY23 onwards company expects normalcy in API sales. It also got new approvals in the formulation and it expanded its geographies for formulations and custom synthesis business also performing well.
  • The company expects growth in all divisions in FY23 and is targeting revenue of USD 1bn by FY23.
  • LAURUSLAB received an order from a Global Life Science company in February 2022. The company has started its supplies and is preparing to produce larger quantities in the coming quarters and also the company is well-positioned to deliver its order.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • We believe that the recent approvals to LAURUSLAB for Molnupiravir and Paxlovid are not likely to add any major incremental revenues as covid cases subside and peers of LAURUSLABS also got the approval for the same drug and this might not add any competitive advantage for the LAURUSLAB.
  • We expect that the issues in antiretroviral API sales to be normalized from 1QFY23 with continuous improvement but lockdowns in China and geopolitical tensions are leading to higher input costs that can put pressure on margins in the shorter term.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of LAURUSLABS was ₹ 592/- as of 28-March-2022. It traded at 28x/22x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 21/ 27/- per share for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 575/- implies a P/E Multiple of 21x on the FY24E EPS estimate of ₹ 27/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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03 May

Plan to cross USD 1bn revenue by FY23 – Laurus Labs

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

The Nifty50 made a comeback in the last hour to end the day a little changed at 14,634. Among the index components, SBILIFE (+5.4%), BHARTIARTL (+4.5%), and ADANIPORTS (+4.5%) ended the day with gains. TITAN (-4.6%), INDUSINDBK (-2.3%), and RELIANCE (-1.9%) ended in the red. METAL (+2.2%), FMCG (+1.1%), and PHARMA (+0.3%) were the top sectoral gainers while MEDIA (-1.4%), PRIVATE BANK (-1.1%), and BANK (-1.0%) led the sectoral losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Satyanarayana Chava, Founder & CEO, Laurus Labs aired on CNBC TV-18 on 30th April 2021:

  • Laurus Labs recently declared 4QFY21 results, wherein Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) revenue is up 88 percent and formulations are up 61 percent YoY. EBITDA margins reported were 33.4%.
  • They have the capacities, products to be made, and customer demand and expect reasonable growth in FY22.
  • The 30% + EBITDA margin is a benchmark. They will aim to achieve these margins to maintain healthy growth.
  • They continue to invest in infrastructure, investing Rs 7,000mn in FY21. They have earmarked Rs 15,000-17,000 mn for FY22 and FY23 for capex to augment their capacities in all 3 divisions.
  • The growth in API business has nothing to do with manufacturing Covid-19 drugs. The growth came primarily from antiretroviral, oncology and contract manufacturing for other generic companies. So far, there hasn’t been any disruption in the supply chain and no impact is expected from the 2nd Covid wave. There was an increase in logistic cost though.
  • The internal target is to cross USD 1bn in revenues by FY23E. With the capex incurred in FY21 and planned in FY22-23E, there will be a growth in revenues in FY22-23E.
  • The raw material price increase in products such as Paracetamol and Azithromycin was due to higher demand. In the products Laurus labs is manufacturing, the demand has not shot up as it has for the 2 products.
  • They are not passing on any of the incremental costs to customers. Due to covid-19, there was an incremental expense of USD 10mn, which was not passed onto customers.
  • Rather than investing in a one-time product, they are investing in the longer term. There is significant investment being made in the CRAMS business as they foresee sizeable growth in that division.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • The ramp-up in formulations business is expected to continue over FY20-23E. The execution in the US and EU are crucial to drive the next leg of formulations growth.
  • With a renewed focus on the synthesis segment, with R&D, increase in the number of customers, and addition of capabilities positions Laurus to evolve its business mix over the next 3-5 years.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of LAURUSLABS was ₹ 478/- as of 03-May-2021. It traded at 22x/ 20x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 21.3/ 23.9 per share for FY22E/FY23E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 414/- implies a PE multiple of 17x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 23.9/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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03 Nov

Revenue growth across segments expected to continue– Laurus Labs

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, Nifty closed 0.2% higher at 11,669. Within NIFTY50, INDUSINDBK (+6.5%), ICICIBANK (+6.0%), and AXISBANK (+6.0%) were the top gainers, while RELIANCE (-8.7%), DIVISLAB (-2.8%), and EICHERMOT (-2.5%) were the top losing stocks. Among the sectoral indices, PRIVATE BANK (+4.2%), BANK (+4.2%) and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+3.9%) were the top gainerswhileIT (-0.9%), PHARMA (-0.6%), and AUTO (-0.3%) were the top losing sectors.

Revenue growth across segments expected to continue– Laurus Labs

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Satyanarayana Chava, Founder & CEO, Laurus Labs, aired on CNBC-TV19 on 30th October 2020:
● In 2QFY21, LAURUSLAB’s revenue growth came from all three divisions and management expects that trend to continue.
● Management has very good visibility of revenue growth going forward.
● Management also expects to maintaingross margins and EBITDA margin. The EBITDA margin is expected to be maintained within the 1HFY21 band of 29%-33%. However, Management refrained from giving any numerical guidance.
● LAURUSLAB’s net debt as of 30th September 2020 is Rs 20,000 mn. Management does not want to bring down the net debt beyond this level as there is a large capacity expansion plan on cards.
● Based on the revenue visibility and order book level, investment in additional capacity is required. Over the next 24 months, management expects a capital outlay of Rs 12,000 to 15,000 mn. The capacity expansion will be done using internal accruals and no external funds will be raised.
● LAURUSLABS has an annualized net debt to equity ratio of 0.85x so they are not highly leveraged. So,the decision to not reduce the net debt levels will not hurt the company.
● Recently the rules have been relaxed in the production linked incentives (PLI) scheme for Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), drug intermediaries, and medical devices. LAURUSLABS has some products where they could get benefit from the modified norms of the PLI scheme, but it will not be very significant.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)
● The closing price of LAURUSLABS was ₹ 301/- as of 2-November-2020. It traded at 18.1x/ 20.6 x/ 13.1x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 16.6/14.6/22.9 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus target price of ₹ 309/- implies a PE multiple of 13.5x on FY23E EPS of ₹22.9/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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