Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday, NIFTY ended at 17,368 (-0.8%) 143 points lower. Among the sectoral indices, only IT (+0.3%) ended higher, whereas MEDIA (-1.8%), OIL&GAS (-1.4%) and REALTY (-1.4%) led the losers. Among the stocks, AXISBANK (+2.4%), TECHM (+2.2%), and SBILIFE (+1.5%) led the gainers while BAJAJFINANCE (-3.0%), BAJAJFINSERV (-2.1%), and RELIANCE (-1.9%) led the losers.
Expect 15+ USFDA approval in CY22- Alembic Pharma
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. RK Baheti, CFO of Alembic Pharma with CNBC TV18 on 9th December 2021:
- Alembic Pharma has received tentative approval from USFDA for Selexipag tablets, a drug used to treat for pulmonary arterial hypertension with a market size of $460 Mn. There are 4 existing players in the market.
- The company can only bring the drug to the market post its patent expiry so there’s an expected delay before the drug can be formally launched post final approval which will happen in CY23.
- The company has first mover advantage in terms of launching the product on Day 1 of Patent Expiry, however the situation remains dynamic and other companies may receive approval for the same.
- The company has an annual run rate of 15+ approvals and the company expects to launch 15 new products in the US in CY22, with 3 Products being first to file by the company.
- Indian companies are facing intense pricing pressure in the US Generics business, due to heightened competition. Company’s degrowth is drawn by high base effect of last year’s exceptional performance and also drawn by company benefitting from scarcity and aggressive pricing over the past 2-3 years.
- The growth ahead is expected to be driven by new launches and first to file opportunities as the pricing degrowth will continue by 10% on an annualized basis, the company has plans to stock up inventories in anticipation of shortages to take advantage of aggressive pricing as and when the opportunities arise
Asset Multiplier Comments
- The company along with its peers is facing stiff competitive pricing pressure in the US Generics business, which was a key growth driver for the company in the past few years.
- The revenue opportunity of new launches, existing competition and cost controls are going to be key drivers of profitability for the company.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
- The closing price of Alembic Pharma was ₹ 797/- as on 13-Dec-2021. It trades at 23x/19x/17x the EPS estimates of ₹ 35/42/47 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
- The consensus target price is ₹ 860 implying a P/E Multiple of 18x on FY24 EPS Estimate of ₹ 47
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