Tag - Auto

e-XUV 300 to be launched in 4QFY23- Mahindra and Mahindra

 

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed in the red at 16,523 (-0.4%) dragged by BAJAJ-AUTO (-3.7%), APOLLOHOSP (-3.3%), and HINDALCO (-2.9%). JSWSTEEL (+3.6%), COALINDIA (+2.0%), and HDFCLIFE (+1.5%) were the top gainers. Among the sectoral indices, PSU BANK (+0.7%), BANK (+0.4%), and PRIVATE BANK (+0.3%) were the top gainers, and HEALTHCARE (-1.5%), IT (-1.4%), PHARMA (-1.3%) were the top losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director (ED), Mahindra and Mahindra published in Moneycontrol on 30th May 2022:

  • The revenue market share for sports utility vehicles (SUVs) is back to the top position, the company is getting 9,000-10,000 bookings every month for the XUV 700. The recently launched XUV 700 has seen only 10-12 per cent cancellations despite a waiting period of 18-24 months.
  • The Company has seen huge success in its XUV 700 Utility Vehicle and is not able to match the demand despite producing more than 5000 vehicles every month. The company plans to ramp up its production once supply issues subside.
  • The Management believes the worst supply constraints are behind it. And that as the company ramps up the capacity with semiconductors supplies expected to improve further, the waiting period will come down.
  • The Company announced the launch of Scorpio-N a new newer generation model of the classic Scorpio on 27th June marks the 20th anniversary of the first launch of Mahindra Scorpio in 2002.
  • While commenting on the overall market situation, ED reiterated that some risks remain on the external environment front and supply has been disrupted due to lockdowns in China. ED, however, added that they expect to see “strong growth” in the auto business in FY23E.
  • The company reported its highest-ever standalone revenue for auto and farm segments at Rs 553 bn for FY22 with April traction in tractors being strong, better than expectations. The farm equipment sector (FES) tractors market share for FY22 is at 40 per cent, up 1.8 per cent year on year with the highest ever farm export volume of 17,500 tractors in FY22.
  • The management reiterated the company’s goal to reach an 18 per cent return on equity (RoE), adding that focus on capital allocation and improved financial metrics continue to deliver results.
  • The Company is planning to launch the fully electric version of its XUV 300 SUV in the market in the first quarter of next year and is expected to unveil its electric vehicle business strategy, ‘Born Electric Vision’ of EV concept in Aug-22.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Mahindra and Mahindra continue to cement its position as the market leader in the utility vehicles segment and with the expected launch of e-SUV, the company can better consolidate its leadership.
  • The farm Equipment segment has been performing really well for the company, increased farm incomes due to government policy, and strong monsoon forecasts will augur well for the company’s demand in the medium term.

Consensus Estimates: (Source: market screener and investing.com website)

  • The closing price of Mahindra and Mahindra was ₹ 1,047/- as of 01-June-2022.  It traded at 16x/ 11x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 69/ 94 – for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 1,150/- implies a P/E Multiple of 12x on the FY24E EPS estimate of ₹ 94/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

To launch its first EV model by 2025 – Maruti Suzuki

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY ended 290 points in the red and closed at 17,173. FMCG (+0.6%), AUTO (+0.4%), and METAL (+0.3%) were the gainers, whereas, IT (-4.6%), PSU BANK (-2.5%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (-2.2%) were the losers. Among the stocks, NTPC (+6.4%), SBILIFE (+2%), and HDFCLIFE (+1.7%) were the gainers and INFY (-7.2%), HDFC (-4.8%), and HDFCBANK (-4.6%) were the top losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Hisashi Takeuchi, MD & CEO, Maruti Suzuki published in Business Standard on the 18th April 2022:

  • The shortage of necessary electronic components and semiconductors has resulted in a backlog of 270,000 units – the equivalent of nearly two and a half months of the company’s domestic sales.
  • For sourcing the semiconductor chips, the company is working with the parent, Suzuki Motor Corporation as well as placing bulk orders directly with chipmakers.
  • The market share of the company has come down to 43.4% from 47.7% two years back. Despite clocking a 13% YoY sales growth in FY22, the loss in domestic market share was due to the total industry growing at a similar pace.
  • The company deals predominantly in the small car market and has lagged in the SUV segment. It has strategies to make a comeback by introducing multiple models in the SUV space.
  • With Suzuki announcing investment in Gujarat to manufacture electric vehicles, the company is targeting localisation which will help in end-product cost reduction.
  • To manufacture electric vehicles and batteries by setting up greenfield projects takes around two to three years. The company thinks, a launch in 2025 is achievable.

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • We believe, the company will continue to face competition from other existing as well as new players. The company’s goal of regaining its lost market share is a big challenge for the new CEO.
  • The semiconductor shortage is likely to persist at least for a few months which will create a hindrance for most automobile companies. The players who can rationalize the short supply by prioritizing selling the premium category models will turn out to be better performers.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: Tikr website)

  • The closing price of MARUTI was ₹ 7,579 /- as of 18-Apr-2022. It traded at 35x/22x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 219/343 for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 9,150/- implies a P/E Multiple of 27x on the FY24E EPS estimate of ₹ 343/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Production levels improving gradually – Maruti Suzuki

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, the benchmark index NIFTY 50 closed at 17,805 (+1.0%), 180 points higher. Among the sectoral indices, OIL & GAS (+1.3%), PSU BANK (+1.2%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+1.2%) led the gainers while HEALTHCARE (-0.8%), PHARMA (-0.8%), and REALTY (-0.5%) led the losers. Among the NIFTY50 components, NTPC (+5.2%), ONGC (+3.7%), and SBIN (+2.8%) were the top gainers while TATAMOTORS (-1.7%), COALINDIA (-1.7%) and TATACONSUM (-1.2%) led the laggards.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Shashank Srivastava, ED-Marketing & Sales of Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) with CNBC-TV18 on 03rd January 2022:

  • In December, MSIL could produce almost 90% of its planned production which was an improvement over the previous months. In September, the company did only about 40% of the production. In October it was about 60%. In November it was about 83-84% and it was close to 90% in December.
  • There seems to have been a progressive improvement on the supply side as well because of the improved situation on the semiconductor front. Going forward, the situation is still not expected to be normal and it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly at what time it will become normal. The company doesn’t believe January-22 will be normal.
  • 100% Normal Utilisation levels is a dynamic that involves the global supply chain and is a very complex issue involving not just Maruti Suzuki and India, but all the OEMs across the globe.
  • On the demand side, the momentum seems to be still pretty strong and it is across all segments. The company saw a good improvement in booking numbers as well as the overall inquiry level even in December.
  • The demand seems to be strong but in the last few months there was a supply disruption because of the semiconductor issue and that has led to the building up of waiting periods and the pending payments had gone up. Currently, MSIL has 2.3 lakh pending bookings. The demand for CNG seems to continue growing. The waiting periods for CNG models are much longer than that for the Petrol/Diesel models.
  • MSIL is very bullish about the Indian market in the long term and the company is planning to strengthen the portfolio in one of the areas where it is a little weaker as far as product portfolio is concerned. The Company plans to launch many new models in the mid SUV segment.
  • The company has no plans to launch an EV before 2025 because it believes the ecosystem which is required for sustainable large-scale, large-volume build-up in the industry is still not there. With regards to the product and investments in the product, Maruti Suzuki has been a very strong presence and along with its parent organization Suzuki Motor Corporation, the company plans to make robust investments in the e-product portfolio.
  • Commodity prices are pretty strong and there is no real relief on the cards. As a result, the company has announced a price hike. Most of the OEMs have announced a price hike in January-22 and the company plans to announce a price hike in line with that.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Auto Industry is undergoing a lot of turmoil due to high pent-up demand, increasing fuel prices, supply chain issues, and commodity inflation. As India’s largest carmaker- MSIL is at an inflection point as it navigates through these critical issues while maintaining its market share.
  • The migration to EV has already been started by MSIL’s peers, however, with the company delaying EV Launch to 2025, it remains to be seen how it reacts to aggressive expansion by its competitors in this segment.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Tikr website)

  • The closing price of Maruti Suzuki was ₹ 7,630/- as of 04-January-2022. It traded at 56x/30x/25x the EPS estimates of ₹ 136/251/304/- for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 8,172/- implies a P/E Multiple of 27x on FY24 EPS estimate of ₹ 304/-

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

 

Product Development for Next-Gen EVs under Focus – Sona Comstar

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

After Monday’s freefall, Indian equities recovered on Tueday as the NIFTY 50 closed at 16,771 (+0.9%). None of the sectoral indices ended with losses. METAL (+2.9%), MEDIA (+2.5%), and CONSUMER DURABLES (+2.0%) were the best performers of the day.

Among the NIFTY 50 components, HCLTECH (+4.3%), WIPRO (+3.8%), and UPL (+3.6%) were the gainers. POWERGRID (-1.7%), AXISBANK (-1.1%), and BAJFINANCE (-0.7%) led the laggards.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Sunjay Kapur, Chairman of Sona Comstar with CNBC-TV18 on 20th December 2021:

  • Sona Comstar has inaugurated a new state of art research and innovation center in Chennai. This facility is dedicated solely to electric vehicles with an aim to foster the development of advanced products for next-generation electrified vehicles.
  • The semi-conductor shortage situation has not improved much over the past few weeks, as the number of chips required per vehicle are increasing as OEMs shift focus towards more digitally integrated systems in vehicles.
  • This is a trend across other industries as well, where the demand for more complex and efficient chips is increasing, adding to the supply issues. Currently, the Auto industry consumes 7% of semiconductor supply, which is slated to go up to 20% in the next 5 years.
  • There’s no immediate relief in sight as there’s no anticipation of a slowdown in demand, so until the supply catches up this issue will persist in the medium term.
  • Logistics, CIF, and Raw Material Inflation are near-term headwinds for the company, the demand persists the challenge lies in solving the supply-side issues in the medium term.
  • The company has set up a state-of-the-art Testing and R&D Facility in Chennai to develop 30-50 Kw Motors and Controllers for EVs. The company is in talks with global OEMs to gauge the demand arising from a shift towards EVs.
  • Conversion from ICE to EVs in terms of the 2 Wheeler market provides a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for all auto-ancillary companies. The company believes that in a market of this size, competition can co-exist with significant market share

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • The shift to EVs provides a massive growth opportunity for all auto and auto ancillary companies and Sona Comstar is perfectly placed to take advantage of its unique R&D-led product portfolio.
  • The Auto Industry is reeling from the semi-conductor shortage crisis and with no respite in sight, we believe the company will be under pressure in the medium term until the supply side issues are sorted out.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Sona Comstar was ₹ 709/- as of 21-December-2021.  It traded at 118x/ 75x the EPS estimates of ₹ 6.0/ 9.5/- for FY22E/FY23E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 708/- implies a P/E Multiple of 75x on FY23 EPS estimate of ₹ 9.5/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

No Plans to Sell Stake – Escorts

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed in the green at 17,503 (+0.5%). The top gainers in NIFTY50 were BHARTIARTL (+4.0%), JSWSTEEL (+4.0%), and ASIANPAINT (+4.0%). The top losers were BAJFINANCE (-2.6%), BAJAJFINSV (-2.6%), and TATAMOTORS (-1.8%). Sectoral gainers were METAL (3.3%), REALTY (2.4%), and MEDIA (2.3%). There were no sectoral losers for the day.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Nikhil Nanda, Chairman and Managing Director, Escorts with Economic Times dated 19th November 2021:

  • Escorts has announced the onboarding of Japanese tractor maker Kubota as a joint promoter of the company along with the Nanda family. Kubota will infuse over Rs 94 bn into Escorts, including an open offer to its shareholders, to increase its stake to 53.8% becoming the majority shareholder of the company.
  • This deal was the best partnership for the company, with the kind of ability and strength that Kubota already has as a global brand it is possible to bring the best in the world to India and use Escorts’ platform to serve the needs of the farming community globally.
  • There’s no change in the stake of the promoter family, it’ll continue to stay the same, Mr. Nanda categorically denied media reports that claimed the Promoter family was selling its stake in Escorts. The family is absolutely honoured to have a chance to partner with Kubota and It looks forward to building this partnership between Kubota and Escorts.
  • The focus of the promoter family was to create an institutionalised company that can survive the fluctuations many family-held companies go through over generational shifts. The company aspires to be a market leader but to achieve that growth trajectory institutionalising was the need of the hour.
  • The partnership with Kubota is not a new one, the relationship started in 2018 with the announcement of a JV. This is just the next step of the partnership after the tremendous success that the company has witnessed over the past 3 years.
  • With the common philosophy and the alignment of interest that the promoter family shares with Kubota, The Promoter family will become joint Promoters with Kubota and as a testament to the respect and mutual admiration, the promoter family will not hold a golden share in the company.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Kubota is a Japanese tractor manufacturer which is one of the largest in the world, this partnership will help Escorts leverage the technological prowess of Kubota to provide best in class products.
  • With Kubota’s global presence, India can become a launch pad of Escorts’ Tractors as it aims to aggressively expand its exports portfolio.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Tikr.com websites)

  • The closing price of Escorts was ₹ 1,803/- as of 23-November-2021.  It traded at 22x/20x/16x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 81/89/111 for FY22E/23E/24E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 1,766/- which trades at 16x the earnings estimate for FY23E of ₹ 111/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Investments in EV Business a priority – Mahindra and Mahindra

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

 

On Thursday, Indian benchmarks declined for the third consecutive session with NIFTY closing at 17,874 (-0.8%). Among the sectoral indices, METAL (+0.4%),  CONSUMER DURABLES (+0.3%) were the only gainers. REALTY (-2.3%), PSU BANK (-1.8%), PHARMA (-1.4%) led the laggards. Among the stocks, TITAN (+1.7%), HINDALCO (+1.1%), and JSWSTEEL (+0.6%) led the gainers, while SBIN (-2.8%), ONGC (-2.6%), and SBILIFE (-2.5%) led the laggards.

 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Manoj Bhat, CFO, Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) with CNBC-TV18 on 10th  November 2021:

  • Raw Material Inflation has been a key headwind for the industry due the commodity cycle turning, However the company is taking a calibrated approach to passing on the costs to consumers through price hikes as the commodity cycles are transient in nature.
  • The company already has taken 3 price hikes in the farm segment and 2 in the auto segment, and there’s still robust demand and thus the company plans to adopt a wait and watch policy.
  • The entire auto industry has seen margins getting contracted severely and the company thinks that the margins have bottomed out at these levels. However the impact was seen in this quarter due to volume loss as a result of semiconductor issue and new product launches which are margin dilutive in the first few quarters.
  • The Company expects margins to improve over 2HFY22 due to scale benefit from volume recovery as the semiconductor situation improves, and calibrated price hikes if necessary.
  • The semi-conductor issue is a global one and it peaked in Q2FY22, but there’s signs of improvement across the world with improving visibility and the company expects normalcy in 1HFY23.
  • Tractor volumes were impacted due to erratic monsoons, however even on an inflated base of FY21, the company expects high single digit growth in FY22. The demand fluctuation is short term the company expects demand to stabilise in 4QFY22 led by market share gain by the company.
  • EV Three Wheelers segment has shown tremendous growth of 317% YoY in Q2FY22 with a 63% market share. The company expects 20% of current 3 wheeler segment to shift to EV by FY25, and the company has plans to invest Rs 30 bn over FY23-25 to expand its dominant position.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • We expect the raw material inflation to impact the bottom line in the medium term.
  • Notwithstanding the semiconductor shortage, it has received a positive response for its new launches such as Thar, XUV 300, and Bolero Neo. The company has indicated its loyal customers are willing to wait as long as 9-12 months to get the new cars. We like the customer loyalty and expect the company’s top line to benefit in the medium to long term.
  • While its revamping its SUV portfolio, the company has ambitious plans to launch electric varients in its UV and 3W portfolio. This may help improve the product penetration.

 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and tikr.com websites)

  • The closing price of M&M was ₹ 925/- as of 11-November-21. It traded at 24x/ 20x/ 17x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 39/ 46/ 54 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 1,050/- implies a PE multiple of 19x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 54/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

No Plans to enter EV Segment in the short term: Maruti Suzuki

 

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended flat with Nifty closing 10 points lower to close at 16,634.  EICHERMOT (3.7%), HDFCLIFE (2.6%), HINDALCO (2.4%) were the top gainers on the index while BAJAJFINSV(-2.9%), TITAN (-2.2%) and MARUTI (-1.3%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  OIL & GAS (1.1%), IT (0.7%) and FMCG (06%) were the top gainers, while PRIVATE BANK (-0.9%), METAL (-0.8%) and REALTY(-0.8%) were the top losers.

 

Excerpts of the Address by RC Bhargava, Chairman, Maruti Suzuki at 40th AGM dated 24th August 2021:

 

  • The Company will not enter electric vehicles in the short term and will enter “only when it is feasible” to sell reasonable numbers. The sales volume of existing EV (Electric Vehicle) Players is not significant enough to threaten Maruti’s Market Share.
  • The company is a market leader in ICE (Internal Combustion Engine). It has plans to be a market leader in EVs as well but the company feels, the conditions for EV penetration in India are not adequate yet.
  • The company’s short term focus is on Hybrid CNG to manage the headwinds raised by rising fuel prices until EVs reach their inflexion point.
  • The company plans to launch an SUV in this high growth segment with the aim to capture more market share in this highly competitive field consisting of a lot of players.
  •  The company is currently facing production issues due to semiconductor shortages. This is expected to continue till the end of FY22. There’s a significant reduction in production, however, no major operational loss is evident.  
  • The Company’s planned Capex is Rs. 45 bn but the company expects there will be a significant deviation in actuals by the end of the year.
  • There’s very low penetration per capita when it comes to the passenger vehicles segment. He feels that in order for India to be fully developed, India should not be pressured to meet its carbon emission reduction norms.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments:

 

  • Maruti Suzuki has a great brand presence across all segments in the Indian markets. With its cautious stance on EV, it risks losing out on market share to more aggressive EV players like Tata Motors.
  • ICE Vehicles are not still being phased out at a very rapid pace and a complete transition to EV is still a long way off. Till then Maruti Suzuki will likely continue to enjoy its position as the market leader.

 

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Maruti Suzuki was ₹6711/- as of 25-August-2021.  It traded at 36x/24x /19x the EPS estimate of ₹189/₹ 279/₹ 351  for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 7912/- which will put it at 23x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 351/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

2 Wheeler EV Segment at a growth inflexion point: Hero Electric

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended lower with Nifty closing 46 points to close at 16,569. EICHERMOT (+2.7%), ULTRACEMCO (+2.4%) BAJFINANCE (+2.1%) were the top gainers on the index while KOTAKBANK (-2.3%),HINDALCO (-2.3%) and ICICIBANK (-2.0%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  FMCG (0.7%), CONSUMER DURABLES (0.6%) and PSU BANK (0.3%) were the top gainers, while PRIVATE BANK (-0.9%), METAL (-0.8%) and REALTY(-0.8%) were the top losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Naveen Munjal, MD, Hero Electric on ET Now dated 17th August 2021:

  • Electric 2 Wheelers are the most lucrative segment in the EV Industry due to a lot of factors such as fewer infrastructure demands, simpler charging requirements, and ride distances.
  • The biggest tailwind for this segment is government support, FAME II ratings, state-specific concessions, and production-linked incentive schemes for EV Manufacturers.
  • The Total Cost of Ownership gap between ICE and EV is increasing daily due to the rise in fuel prices. Hence, the company expects demand to shift to EVs in the upcoming years to the point it’ll be 20% or a 4 billion unit segment in the next 5 years.
  • The consumer sentiment is shifting towards Electric Mobility not just in urban areas. The penetration is increasing in tier-3, tier-4, and some rural areas as well, so the sales would only go northwards from hereon.
  • The range is adequate for regular usage and for heavy usage the company offers multiple batteries as a backup. Most customers charge their bikes at home. However, the range anxiety can be addressed by installing charging stations, in which the company is investing heavily.
  • The company has also trained 6,000 mechanics and plans to train another 25,000 to solve any potential issues that may arise due to EV Malfunctions thereby creating an entire ecosystem.
  • India is leapfrogging technologies to have the most upgraded know-how as compared to other countries who took the traditional approach of innovating through the years, which is why the performance of Indian EV 2 Wheelers is best in class.
  • R&D that is being done is immense. So the vehicles in the future are going to be far better than what they are at this point. This range of vehicles is already better than what was three or five years back. This demonstrates the huge improvement in technology,

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • Electric Vehicles are a thing of the future due to the headwinds faced by ICE Vehicles, the transition has already begun and India stands to be one of the biggest EV markets in the upcoming decade.
  • There are no pureplay EV Manufacturers that are listed on the bourses. However many 2 Wheeler Manufacturers are planning their foray into this segment. It should be noted that Hero Electric and Hero Motorcorp are two legally distinct entities with no connection to each other.
  • Hero Motorcorp has its own plans to manufacture Electric 2 Wheelers as it wants to expand into this lucrative growth-driven segment.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Hero Motorcorp was ₹2763/- as of 18-August-2021.  It traded at 17x/14x /12x the EPS estimate of ₹167/₹ 201/₹ 225 for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 3235/- which trades at 14x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 225/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Have very low inventory at dealerships Maruti Suzuki

Update on Indian Equity Market:

The markets closed the weekly expiry day on a positive note as Nifty ended the day 0.5% higher at 15,179. Within the index, HINDALCO (5.4%), RELIANCE (4.2%), and ADANIPORTS (2.6%) were the highest gainers while EICHERMOT (-3.0%), TITAN (-2.5%), and LT (-1.4%) were the laggards. Among the sectoral indices, FMCG (0.8%), METAL (0.8%), and IT (0.6%) led the gainers while PSU BANK (-1.3%), AUTO (-0.5%), and REALITY (-0.3%) were the losing sectors.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Shashank Srivastava, Executive Director, Marketing & Sales- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (Maruti) with CNBC TV18 dated 11th February 2021:

  • Mr. Srivastava mentioned that the Vaahan data comes with a lag. In October-November, it was said that the dealers are carrying very high inventories based on the Vaahan data which on the ground was incorrect.
  • The states like Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, which contribute about 12% to the sales are not part of Vaahan numbers. About 14% of the RTOs (Regional Transport Office) are not part of the data issued by Vaahan.
  • The company is currently not facing any difficulty caused by a global shortage of semiconductor chips. Production was normal in January and continues to be so in February.
  • The auto sales recovery has continued. The company is now only 15% below last year’s volume levels. The same number was -78% and -34% during 1QFY21 and 1HFY21 respectively.
  • The company has kept very low inventory levels at dealerships. He said that the company needs to undertake extra production to fill the inventory levels.
  • Price rise in precious metals leading to input cost inflation for the auto sector. He mentioned that one has to take a hit on the bottom-line to protect the top-line.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener)
•The closing price of Maruti was ₹ 7,665/- as of 11-February-2021. It traded at 49x/ 31x/ 24x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 156/ 245/ 313 for FY21E/FY22E/23E respectively.
• The consensus price target of ₹ 7,620/- implied a PE multiple 24x of FY23E EPS estimate of ₹313/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Making structural changes to diversify from auto industry – JSW Steel

Update on Indian equity market:
Nifty remained muted on the weekly expiry day, ending 8 points lower at 11,300. Within NIFTY50, TATAMOTORS (+4.5%), LT (+4.4%) and HINDALCO (+4.2%) were the top gainers while SUNPHARMA (-2.1%), EICHERMOT (-2.1%) and BHARTIARTL (-2.0%) were the top losers. Among the sectoral indices, MEDIA (+1.4%), AUTO (+1.2%) and METAL (+1.1%) were the highest gainers whereas PSU BANKS (-1.0%), PHARMA (-0.9%) and BANK (-0.3%) were the laggards.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Seshagiri Rao, Joint Managing Director & CFO, JSW Steel (JSW) published in Economic Times dated 04th August 2020:
•Mr Rao said that in the normal scenario, the company was supplying about 2 million tonne to the Auto sector from the total annual capacity of 15 million tonne. During the pandemic lockdown, the number had dropped by as much as about 65%.
•The company is witnessing demand for steel picking up in tractors and two-wheelers. The demand from top-2 passenger car makers, Maruti and Hyundai has been improved in July over June. The demand for steel in the commercial vehicles segment however remained depressed.
•The company’s alloy steel plant at Salem produces about 1 lakh tonne out of which 70,000 tonne capacity is on rolling basis. There is one bloom mill completely dedicated to the auto sector, and there is a bar mill which can have multiple applications, and finds use in the sectors other than the auto also.
•In the lockdown, the bar mill production was not reduced, whereas the bloom mill production came down to 0 in the month of April, which is currently operating at 10,000- 15,000 tonne a month.
•The changes that company is making on the Auto side are not temporary, they are all structural. The growth in demand for steel from the Auto sector is not the same as the industry has witnessed in the past. He expects it to never be the same and therefore diversification has a strategic component with itself.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
•The closing price of JSW Steel was ₹ 259/- as of 13-Aug-2020. It traded at 38x/13x/ 9x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 6.8/ 20.5/ 27.8 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
•Consensus target price of ₹ 233/- implies a PE multiple of 8x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 27.8.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”