21 Dec

Demand continues to be positive from rural areas : Kajaria Ceramics

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Friday, NIFTY closed at 13,760 (-0.14%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Dr Reddy (+3.3%), Bajaj Auto (+2.5%), and Infy (+2.3%). The top losers were IndusInd BANK (-3.1%), HDFC Bank (-2.3%), and ONGC (-1.9%). The top sectoral gainers were IT (+1.6%), PHARMA (+1.3%), and FMCG (+0.3%) and the sectoral losers were PVT BANK (-0.7%), PSU BANK (-0.7%), and REALTY (-0.6%).

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Ashok kajaria, CMD – Kajaria Ceramics and Sandip Somany, VC and MD of HSIL with CNBC TV18 dated 18th December 2020:
• The home improvement sector has seen a huge demand amid the COVID-19 lockdown and the work from home, including in the rural areas. The demand from non-metros and smaller towns is robust
• The residential market is very strong especially from tier-2, tier-3, and tier-4 towns. The demand is very strong after the lockdown.
• In the earlier months we thought it is pent up demand, but looking at the last five months, the demand continues to be positive.
• The branded players are doing much better post lockdown and exports too have gone up.
• After the lockdown, things are much better for branded players. They are doing very well in the domestic market. The exports have also gone up from the country in the last three months.
• September, October, and November, the exports have gone up by almost 40 percent than what it was last year.
• Mr Sandeep said that there has been significant growth in demand particularly in the kitchen space and they expect to see 15 percent growth by end of the year in that space.
• They see a very sharp increase in home improvement products. The kitchen space particularly has seen significant growth in demand because for the past 20-40 years nobody has spent so much time in their homes and people are enjoying cooking and rediscovering cooking.
• So, the kitchen space has become very exciting. They are the second-largest producer there in the country and they have seen a significant reemergence in the demand there. At the end of the year, we will be close to 15-20 percent positive.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
• The closing price of KAJARIACER was ₹ 700/- as of 18th December 2020. It traded at 49x/ 37x/ 31x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 14.4/ 19.1/ 22.7 for FY21E/FY22E/23E respectively.
• The closing price of HSIL was ₹ 105/- as of 18th December 2020. Consensus estimates for HSIL are not available.
• The consensus price target of KAJARIACER Ltd is ₹ 601/- which trades at 26x the earnings estimate for FY23E of ₹ 22.7/-
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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20 Dec

Bull Markets

As equity markets around the world reach a new high, investors need to remember a few things about the bull markets. Here are some comments made by famous investors who have seen many bull and bear markets in their careers.

“Bull markets ignore bad news, and any good news is a reason for a further rally.” Michael Platt

“Gresham’s Law says that the bad money [paper] drives the good money [specie] out of circulation; this accurately describes human behaviour when people are confronted with a cost-free choice. I now believe this accurately describes people’s choice of investment philosophies, especially late in a bull market, when the sloppy analysis drives out the disciplined assessment, and when the grab for return overwhelms the desire for capital preservation.” Seth Klarman

“The longer the bull market lasts the more severely investors will be affected with amnesia; after five years or so, many people no longer believe that bear markets are possible.” Benjamin Graham
“In investor behaviour, particularly during the last stages of a great bull market, perception of risk and actual risk are at opposite ends of the spectrum.” Leon Levy

“People tend to forget about the importance of the price they pay as the experience of a bull market just sort of dulls the senses generally.” Charlie Munger

“Once a bull market gets underway, and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks. In effect, these people superimpose an I-can’t-miss-the-party factor on top of the fundamental factors that drive the market. Like Pavlov’s dog, these ‘investors’ learn that when the bell rings – in this case, the one that opens the New York Stock Exchange at 9:30 a.m. – they get fed. Through this daily reinforcement, they become convinced that there is a God and that he wants them to get rich.” Warren Buffett

“The further you get away from a bear market, the greater the number of people who have convinced themselves they can handle the downside – until the next time, of course. In the interim, if the indices are performing well, then you can bet that many investors – individuals and professionals, alike – are going to feel pressure to do whatever they can to ride the bull.” Steven Romick

“Never confuse genius with luck and a bull market.” John Bogle

“In a bull market, it is advisable to restrain one’s greed. There is an old wall street saying, ‘The bulls make money, the bears make money. But what happens to the pigs?’. You can’t make 101 per cent. You shouldn’t even strive to make 100 per cent. Your goal should be 66.6% of a big move. Get out and then reinvest in something that has been newly studied.” Roy Neuberger

“It’s just the nature of a rip-roaring bull market. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 per cent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, where the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.” Paul Tudor Jones

“Common stocks should be purchased when their prices are low, not after they have risen to high levels during an upward bull-market spiral. Buy when everyone else is selling and hold on until everyone else is buying — this is more than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of a successful investment.” J Paul Getty

“Very early in my career, a veteran investor told me about the three stages of a bull market. Now I’ll share them with you. The first, when a few forward-looking people begin to believe things will get better. The second, when most investors realize improvement is actually taking place. The third, when everyone concludes things will get better forever. Why would anyone waste time trying for a better description? This one says it all. It’s essential that we grasp its significance.” Howard Marks

Source: http://mastersinvest.com/bullmarketquotes

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18 Dec

Hopeful of double-digit credit growth in FY22E- Karnataka Bank

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Thursday, Nifty ended 0.4% higher at 13,740. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were Divis Labs (+3.0%), HDFC (+2.7%), and Bajaj Finance (+2.4%) while the losing stocks for the day Hindalco (-2.2%), Coal India (-1.8%), and Maruti (-1.7%). Top gaining sectors were Financial Services (+1.2%), Realty (+0.6%) and Pvt Bank (+0.5%). The losing sectors were Media (-1.9%), PSU Bank (-1.4%) and Metal (-0.4%)

Hopeful of double-digit credit growth in FY22- Karnataka Bank

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Mahabaleshwara MS, Managing Director & CEO, Karnataka Bank Ltd; dated 16th December 2020 from CNBC TV 18:

Karnataka Bank has no plans of raising capital right now but will consider it at an appropriate time.
The bank is comfortable with the current capital position and is at a comfortable position of 13.08% capital adequacy ratio (CAR).

Going forward the Bank has also assessed the impact of COVID-19 and there will not be any negative impact, according to him. Karnataka Bank has been maintaining a CAR varying in between 12-13.3%. So, considering that, the position is comfortable. But at the appropriate time, all banks are evaluating to take a stand in further strengthening the capital. So, the Bank will also take an appropriate stand going forward if required. The growth capital & stress capital both are in comfortable space according to the Bank’s internal assessment.

On asset quality, Mr Mahabaleshwara said that he had estimated about 2-4% of the Bank’s loan book to be converted under the one-time restructuring (OTR) scheme. So this is on the expected lines because the Bank has to identify all those accounts by December 31. That exercise is going on and he is sure that it will be within that range itself. The moratorium book will be somewhere around 1% by the end of December-20 as estimated earlier from 11.6% in September-20 of the total loan book.

The Bank’s strategy is to conserve, consolidate & emerge stronger. It would be focusing on the bottom line rather than the top line. Mr Mahabaleshwara does not expect credit growth to be more than 2-4% for FY21E. However, he said that for FY22E, the credit growth could be in double digits.

Mr Mahabaleshwara expects the average net interest margins (NIMs) to be more than 3%. Comfortable margins will be ensured with an increase of retail loans and a reduction in corporate exposure in loans. Digital sanctioning is in focus currently for the loans.

Post moratorium stress is much lower than the pre-Covid level for the bank. Slippage ratio is expected to be at 1-2% levels, he added.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
The closing price of The Karnataka Bank was ₹ 58/- as of 17-December-2020. It traded at 0.30x/ 0.28x the consensus Book value per share estimate of ₹ 191/204 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
The average consensus target price of 50/- implies a PB multiple of 0.2x on the FY22E book value of ₹ 204/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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17 Dec

Goal is to get back to the FY18-19 growth levels– LTTS

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, Nifty closed 0.9% higher at 13,692. Within NIFTY50, HINDALCO (+2.8%), BHARTIARTL (+2.8%), and HDFC (+2.8%) were the top gainers, while ICICIBANK (-1.1%), INDUSINDBK(-1.0%), and ULTRACEMCO (-0.8%) were the top losing stocks. Among the sectoral indices, REALTY (+5.1%),METAL (+1.8%) and AUTO (+1.0%) were the top gainerswhilePSU BANK (-1.6%) was the only losing sector.

Goal is to get back to the FY18-19 growth levels– LTTS

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Keshab Panda, CEO, L&T Tech Services, aired on CNBC-TV18 on 15thDecember 2020
● The new normal is presenting new opportunities for engineering and technology companies like L&T Tech Services (LTTS).
● LTTS recently received a USD 100 mn + plant engineering order from a global oil and gas major. The deal is the biggest ever plant engineering deal in India and includes sustenance engineering, control automation, smart manufacturing, and efficiency improvement.
● The revenue contribution of the deal will start coming in FY22E onward.
● The current deal is for 2 plants of the client. The opportunity could be much more than that if extended to other plants. The opportunity in the 2 plants itself could extend by 50-100%.
● For this deal, the model will be 20% onsite and 80% offshore.
● The deal wins pipeline has increased multifold from the pre-covid levels.
● The revenue growth for FY18 and FY19 was 20% and 26% respectively. Growth came down to 8%-9% in FY20 due to customer issue. Now the goal is to get back to the FY18-19 growth levels quickly.
● LTTS is also working on improving margins from the 2QFY21 levels.
● Among sectors that LTTS operates in, plant engineering is doing well, medical is doing best, transportation except aerospace is also coming back.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)
● The closing price of LTTS was ₹ 1844 as of 16-December-2020. It traded at 30x/ 23 x/ 20x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 62.6/80.5/92.4 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus target price of ₹ 1750/- implies a PE multiple of 19x on FY23E EPS of ₹92.4/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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16 Dec

Dramatic recovery in advertising revenues – Sun TV

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday Nifty closed 0.1% higher at 13,568. Among the sectoral indices, Media (+1.8%), Auto (+0.6%), and Metal (+0.8%) closed higher. Nifty PSU Bank (-1.5%), FMCG (-1.3%), and Pharma (-0.2%) closed lower. Bajaj Finance (+5.1%), Bajaj Finserv (+4.2%), and Eicher Motors (+3.1%) closed on a positive note. HUL (-2.1%), Nestle (-2.1%), and BPCL (-1.8%) were among the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr. SL Narayanan CFO, Sun Group with CNBC-TV18 dated 14th December 2020:

● Mr. Narayanan said the company has dramatic recovery in advertising revenues.
● The recovery on QoQ basis is better but the kind of set back company witnessed in the 1st half of the year the recovery is not that sharp to recover all the deficits.
● He said the subscription will become the mainstay of media companies like Sun Tv.
● 9 years back, the subscription revenues were averaging around Rs 85 crore a quarter which was Rs 340 crore run rate annually. That number has now touched Rs 2,000cr.
● Speaking on infrastructure, he said the company has prepared in the last 3-4 years for streaming.
● The company is investing in more forms of content.
● He said the telecom companies are sourcing content from media companies.
● The company is looking to spend Rs 400 cr on original content and in addition to this, the company will be producing movies.
● The company will also Rs 200 cr for exclusive content on Sun Next.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Investing.com websites)
● The closing price of Sun TV was ₹ 500 as of 14-December-2020. It traded at 14x/ 13x/ 12x the consensus Earnings per share estimate of ₹ 35.5/39.1/41.9 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus average target price for Sun TV is ₹ 523/- which implies a PE multiple of 12x on FY23E EPS of 41.9/-.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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15 Dec

Expecting double-digit growth YoY in 3QFY21 – Berger Paints

Update on Indian equity market:
Markets started the week on a higher note as Nifty closed the day 44 points higher at 13,571. Within the index, ONGC (5.9%), LT (4.3%), and CIPLA (4.1%) led the index higher while EICHERMOT (-2.5%), HEROMOTOCO (-2.2%), and M&M (-2.0%) were the highest losers. Nine out of 11 sectoral indices were in the green with MEDIA (2.0%), PSU BANK (1.8%), and METAL (1.4%) leading the pack while AUTO (-1.0%) and REALTY (-0.9%) were the only losers.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Abhijeet Roy, Chief Operating Officer, Berger Paints (Berger) published on CNBC-TV18 dated 11th December 2020:
The demand scenario in the month of October and November was robust. The company is witnessing a similar trend in December. He expects the volumes to report double-digit YoY growth in 3QFY21E.
Demand from the auto segment surged ahead of the festive season. The demand has softened in the month of December.
The decorative segment has seen robust demand right from 2QFY21 and continues to do well in the month of December.
To meet the ever-increasing demand for its products, the company is putting up a new plant at Lucknow. The initial plan was to have Rs 2,600-2,700 mn of investment in capacity expansion. The same has been ramped up to beyond Rs 4,500mn looking at the demand scenario.
He said that the costs are going up for some raw materials, specifically for monomers. The margins are expected to be under pressure in 4QFY21E.
He said that the company reported the fastest growth in the industry and as a result, gained market share. With the ever-increasing demand scenario, he is confident of continuing the momentum.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
The closing price of Berger was ₹ 681/- as of 14-Dec-2020. It traded at 102x/ 75x/ 63x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 6.7/ 9.1/ 10.8 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 551/- implies a P/E multiple of 51x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 10.8.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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14 Dec

Price hikes will vary from model to model – Maruti Suzuki

Update on the Indian Equity market:
On Friday, Nifty50 ended the week with gains at 13,514 (+0.3%). Among the sectoral indices, METAL (+1.1%), PSU BANK (+1.0%), and FMCG (+0.9%) ended with gains, while PHARMA (0.6%), IT (-0.4%), and AUTO (-0.1%) were the only losers. ONGC (+5.5%), NTPC (+5.2%), and GAIL (+5.0%) were the top gaining stocks while AXISBANK (-2.3%), DIVISLAB (-2.2%), and ADANIPORTS (-1.3%) were the top losing stocks.

Excerpts of an interview of Mr. Shashank Srivastava, ED- Marketing & Sales, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MARUTI) with CNBC TV18 on 10th December 2020:
• MARUTI has announced a hike in the prices of its vehicles from January 21 to offset the impact of rising input costs. The quantum of price hikes is still being discussed and will vary from model to model.
• Largely the input cost increases have been because of steel and precious metals (Palladium) increasing.
• Due to the shift from BS-IV to BS-VI, the consumption of precious metals used has increased, worldwide. As a result, the demand for these metals has gone up worldwide.
• Due to the mismatch in higher input costs and lower production in CY20, there has been a sharp increase in input costs and it has become imperative to hike prices.
• He believes the pent-up demand still exists. The long-term demand would depend on the fundamentals of the economy and Covid sentiment.
• This year has been a little unusual and the auto industry was recovering from supply chain disruptions. When the demand finally came in, inventory levels are lower and due to this demand-supply gap, he expects lesser discounts compared to last year.
• According to FADA registration numbers, MARUTI sold 143,554 vehicles in November which was lower than the numbers company expected. This is due to the difference in the number of RTOs from which data is collected by VAHAN (which FADA uses) vs the number MARUTI uses. VAHAN takes data from 1252 RTOs whereas there are 1465 RTOs in India. About 15% RTOs are not a part of VAHAN data and these are in the states of Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh. These 3 states comprise about 13-15% of MARUTI’s sales.
• Another problem with using the VAHAN numbers is that it used permanent registration. There are about 18 states which give temporary registration and the permanent registration comes in as late as 30 days.
• For loans to customers, MARUTI is planning to add 4 more banks and 5 more in 4QFY21E. There will be 17 banks integrated on the website, which disburse about 95% of auto loans.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
• The closing price of MARUTI was ₹ 7,715/- as of 11-December-2020. It traded at 51x/ 31x/ 25x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 150/ 247/ 308 per share for FY21E/FY22E/FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 6,367 implies a PE multiple of 21x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 308/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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11 Dec

Expect 15% AUM growth going ahead – Muthoot Finance

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Wednesday, NIFTY closed in red at 13,478 (-0.38%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Nestle (+4.1%), ITC (+3.8%), and Britannia (+3.1%). The top losers were UPL (-11.3%), Ultra Cement (-3.3%), and Shree Cement (-2.8%). The top sectoral gainers were FMCG (+2.8%), REALTY (+0.4%), and METAL (+0.2%) and the sectoral losers were MEDIA (-1.6%), PSU BANK (-1.5%), and AUTO (-0.9%).

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. George Alexander Muthoot, MD – Muthoot Finance with CNBC TV18 dated 9th December 2020:
• 3QFY21 has seen a reasonable pick up in the gold loan financing business and the demand for gold loans among MSME and small shop owners have been recovering, according to Muthoot Finance.
• Gold loans would do well in the coming days as the demand in most places has risen reasonably.
• In Q3FY21, they are seeing a reasonably good pick up in gold loan demand. Everywhere things are starting to open up, so probably business should come back to what it was pre-COVID.
• As far as gold loan is concerned, they see good pick up in the demand and they see gold loan companies doing well in the coming days.
• He expects to see a minimum of 15 percent assets under management (AUM) growth on a
• Year-on-year (YoY) basis in the next four-five years.
• Gold prices are expected to stabilize near Rs 50,000 per 10 grams level going forward.
• Banks get bigger loans while NBFCs get smaller ticket-sized loans.
• Muthoot Finance plans to open around 100-150 branches in the next 12 months.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
• The closing price of MUTHOOTFIN was ₹ 1,183/- as of 10th December 2020. It traded at 3.6x/ 2.6x/ 2.2x the consensus Book value estimate of ₹ 364/ 451/ 540 for FY21E/FY22E/23E respectively.
• The consensus price target of MUTHOOTFIN is ₹ 1,300/- which trades at 2.4x the book value estimate for FY23E of ₹ 540/-
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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10 Dec

Optimistic on future of the real estate, service sector to take longer to recover – HDFC

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Wednesday, Nifty ended 1.0% higher at 13,529 with banks outperforming. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were GAIL (+8.3%), Sun Pharma (+5.7%), and IndusInd Bank (+4.9%) while the losing stocks for the day were Nestle (-2.6%), Kotak Bank (-1.5%), and Titan (-1.3%). The top gaining sectors were Media (+3.8%), Pvt bank (+1.7%), and Bank (+1.5%). The losing sectors were PSU Bank (-1.0%), Metal (-0.5%), and Auto (-0.1%).

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC dated 09th December 2020 from CNBC TV 18:

Mr Parekh is optimistic about the future of the real estate sector, especially the small homes. However, he believes the service sector is going to take long before it recovers.
The pain, the struggle and difficulty have been in close contact service sectors like restaurants, hotels, transport, civil aviation and these industries still have a long way to recover.

Mr Parekh said October 2020 was a record month for auto as companies saw all-time high numbers of sales.
On inflation, he said that the latest monetary policy has been mature and accurate although the inflation is higher than the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). RBI has decided not to make any changes and leave the surplus liquidity into the system. He is confident RBI will not destabilize any large non-banking finance company (NBFC) or housing finance company (HFC) even if they don’t want to convert into a bank.

Speaking about NBFCs, Mr Parekh said that there needs to be a change in the RBI Act for corporates to enter the banking system. He does not see it happening immediately. It’s a 2-3 year process. However, in the end, RBI will be more conservative and cautious in their usual style and manner and will differ giving licences to corporate houses.
On the GDP front, Mr Parekh said that 2Q has surprised everyone; although the gross domestic product (GDP) showed a negative growth rate for 2Q, one should look at it as an aberration.

One never expected that September and October would see such fantastic new inflows of application in e-bills, tolls or housing sector compared to previous September-October, which was pre-pandemic.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website):

The closing price of HDFC was ₹ 2,308/- as of 09-December-2020. It traded at 4.0x/ 3.7x/3.4x the consensus Book value per share estimate of ₹ 569/615/674 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
The average consensus target price of ₹ 2,106/- implies a PB multiple of 3x on the FY23E book value of ₹ 674/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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09 Dec

JLR will not compromise on product and technology investments – Tata Motors

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, Nifty closed 0.3% higher at 13,393. Within NIFTY50, ULTRACEMCO (+3.1%), TCS (+2.1%), and RELIANCE (+1.8%) were the top gainers, while HINDALCO (-2.3%), SUNPHARMA (-2.2%), and COALINDIA (-1.8%) were the top losing stocks. Among the sectoral indices, PSU BANK (+7.1%), REALTY (+0.8%) and IT (+0.8%) were the top gainers while METAL (-1.2%), PHARMA (-1.2%), and MEDIA (-0.9%) were the top losing sectors.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. PB Balaji, Group CFO, Tata Motors, aired on CNBC-TV18 on 7th December 2020
● Management has consciously called out that turning free cash flow positive is a key objective of the business.
● Both JLR and TML will be free cash flow positive in 2HFY21E. The India PV business will turn positive from FY23E. The management is confident of delivering on these targets.
● JLR turnover was well underway before the Covid-19 disruption. Due to Covid-19, JLR has accelerated plans that were already in place.
● Turnaround of JLR depends on 3 verticals: 1) Focus on how to use the products that have been launched to their maximum limit, 2) China geography turnaround, and 3) Cost and cash savings as part of the Charge+ program. As these 3 factors come together, JLR will turn free cash positive and that will ensure deleverage.
● Land Rover has been doing better than Jaguar. Land Rover also generates most of the profits currently. Turnaround and sustainability of cash flows of Jaguar is part of the overall medium-long term JLR turnaround plan.
● On the Indian PV side, the New forever range launched by TML in February 2020 has been successful in generating demand traction. Overall, the industry is seeing a demand resurgence in PV led to a need for a safe commute. Post-Diwali this year there hasn’t been a serious decline in sales which is what happens normally. Order books are at all-time highs.
● The Indian CV business is also seeing sequential recovery, although slower than PV. Recovery came earlier in SCVs and ILCVs.
● MHCVs are also doing better in the last 1.5 months. Financing has opened up for MHCVs which is helping sales. With the economy slowly starting, there is a pick-up in cargo movements.
● One segment that is not performing well at all is the Passenger carriers (buses) segment due to schools being shut and most offices working from home.
● JLR has slashed FY21E capex plans to GBP 2.5 bn. But JLR will not compromise on product and technology investments. The capex cut is in tune reflecting the decline in the demand scenario. Some products whose business case was not strong enough have been put on pause.
● Every JLR product will have an electrification option by early FY22E. The electrification journey is well underway and is not stopping here.
● Additionally, Tata Motors is looking for partnerships – be in JLR or TML – to ensure capital productivity.
● JLR margins went up to 11.1% in 2QFY21 on the back of Charge+ cash savings. Management expects further improvement in profitability and cash flows in 2HFY21E. As volumes increase, initiatives made on the costs, especially material costs, will get reflected more.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)
● The closing price of TATAMOTORS was ₹ 182 as of 8-December-2020. It traded at 18 x/ 9x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 10.4/19.9 for FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
● The consensus target price of ₹ 148/- implies a PE multiple of 8x on FY23E EPS of ₹19.9/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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