Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Tuesday, NIFTY50 ended in its 5 day winning streak and closed at 16,663 (-1.2%). Among the sectoral indices, AUTO (+0.6%), and FMCG (+0.2%) were the only gainers while METAL (-4.1%), IT (-2.6%), and OIL & GAS (-2.5%) were the top sectoral indices that closed in the red. Among the NIFTY50 stocks, TATACONSUM (+3.7%), M&M (+2.4%), and CIPLA (+2.0%) led the gainers while TATASTEEL (-5.2%), HINDALCO (-5.2%), and ONGC (-4.9%) led the losers.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Parag Rao, Country Head, HDFC Bank published in Economic Times on 14th March 2022:
- The bank did face a couple of outages and it impacted the customers. The regulator took notice of this and conveyed that it has no issues with the bank’s growth plans and strategic direction in which the bank is going, but it would like it if the bank reconsiders its investments in infrastructure so that it can sustain this growth.
- The bank in the interim was not allowed to do two things. One was the credit card ban; it could not issue new credit cards to customers and at the same time, all the new digital initiatives which the bank was planning to launch were put on temporary hold till such time the bank strengthened and demonstrated the capability to manage this kind of growth.
- The bank’s new motto is technology become the driver and magnet to get business for the bank and that is how it has started the transformation. In this context, the first embargo on the issuance of credit cards was lifted in August-21. Since then, the bank has gotten back to its regular run rates and rapid growth plans on its credit card base.
- HDFC Bank is a very large bank. It has commitments and responsibility to a very large customer franchise and in that sense, this pause in its growth was for a very good cause and it is now far better prepared for the next five years.
- The bank’s strategy can be broken up into three core parts; one is reimagining the entire customer experience and building new digital platforms which would take the customer experience that much far into the future. The context has already been set over the last five to seven years with the emergence and explosion of the digital wave.
- This digital wave has brought about significant changes in the way customers would interact with their principles, banks, and various other categories practically in every industry and so there was a different need for customers in this whole digital world.
- All of this has expanded the kind of needs and demands that the customer expects from the institution. So reimagining customer experience and building completely new digital platforms to enhance customer value is one leg of the bank’s strategy.
- One immediate change over the next couple of months will be the relaunch of PayZapp 2.0 on a completely new platform. The Bank aims is to be among the top three payment apps in the country and a significant ramp-up for PayZapp not just by how it engages and provides the services of holistic payments to its existing set of 60 million customers.
- The Bank’s planned investments into technology are expected to double over the next 3 years as compared to the past 3 years. The bank is focused on expanding its digital infrastructure by bringing new and skilled talent to lead the transformation.
Asset Multiplier Comments
- After 16 months of restrictions imposed by the RBI, HDFC Bank is all set to leverage its investments in technology to fuel the next stage of growth in customers by expanding its omnichannel presence.
- While HDFC Bank is a leader in a lot of parameters in the banking sector, it requires significant catch-up to its peers like ICICI Bank and SBI who have already ahead of the curve when it comes to customer acquisition and tech-based infrastructure development.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: Marketscreener website)
- The closing price of HDFC Bank was ₹ 1424 /- as of 15-March-2022. It traded at 2.7x/ 2.4x the consensus Book Value per share estimate of ₹ 520/600 for FY23E/FY24E respectively.
- The consensus target price of ₹ 1970/- implies a P/B multiple of 3.3x on FY24E BVPS estimate of ₹ 600/-
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