Update on the Indian market
On Monday, NIFTY continued the rally for the second consecutive trading day after Friday’s announcements of tax measures and revisions in GST rates leading to earnings upgrade of the companies. NIFTY closed 2.9% higher. The sectoral indices’ performance reflected the key beneficiaries of the change in tax rates with NIFTY BANK (+5.4%), NIFTY Financial services (+5.4%) and FMCG (+4.4%) were the biggest gainers while NIFTY IT (-2.9%) and NIFTY Pharma (-2.2%) were the losers. The biggest gainers were BPCL (+13.7%), LT (+9.1%), BAJFINANCE (+9%), EICHERMOT (+9%) while the highest losers were ZEEL (-8%), INFY (-5%).
HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK): Bank to cash on the festive demand
Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Aditya Puri, MD, HDFC Bank; dated 19th September 2019 on CNBC TV 18:
- HDFC bank has made higher provision for Agri loans but the actual defaults are not high. Agri loan slippages were one-off and will come down post-harvest.
- HDFC bank created contingency provisions as per RBI norms for NBFCs and for corporates which don’t have unhedged exposure. These provisions are expected to go away this quarter.
- The cost to income ratio is expected to go down by 5% in the next 5 years for HDFC bank.
- Banks are not allowed to lend for land. In the real estate sector, commercial real estate is doing well. The middle, slightly above middle and affordable housing continues to see demand. The concessions announced by the finance minister of India are only for affordable houses. The Luxury flats, are the ones which will not benefit and the prices will eventually be determined by the market.
- HDFC Bank is looking ahead to a very good festive season of Diwali. From 27th September 2019 to 31st December 2019; HDFC Bank is coming up with a Diwali Dhamaka offer which will provide lower cost, cashback and discount from the vendor to the customers. HDFC Bank will give ~7-10% cashback over and above the discounts given by the vendor partners. HDFC Bank will maintain NIMS of ~4.3%.
- On talking about the linking to external benchmark rates, Mr Puri mentioned that HDFC bank doesn’t have many floating loans. He mentioned that floating rate deposits are not feasible. There is a lot of pressure on banks to transmit lower rates, but there is a need for the debt market reforms.
Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)
- The closing price of HDFCBANK was Rs 1,255/- as of 23-September-19. It traded at 4.1x / 3.6x / 3.0x the consensus book value for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of Rs 308/ 351/ 413 respectively.
- Consensus target price of Rs 2,661/- implies a P/B multiple of 6.4x on the FY22E book value of Rs 413/-