This week in a nutshell (03rd October – 07th October)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 3^rd October at 17,102 in the red and ended in the green at 17,315 on 7^th  October, after high volatility during the week. The index closed marginally in the green during the week. The next support and resistance levels for the index would be 17,262 and 17,412 respectively. The RSI (14) of 50 indicates the index is showing signs of recovery.

Among the sectoral indices, MEDIA (+5.5%), REALTY (+3.8%), IT (+4%), and BANK (+2.7%) were the gainers during the week while METAL (-1.2%), OIL AND GAS (-1.0%) and HEALTHCARE (-0.9%) led the losers.

Weekly highlights

• US major indices closed the week in red after the US Employment data erased the gains made during the week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones closed the week with losses of 1%, 2%, and 1% respectively.
• Oil prices settled higher on Friday as OPEC has maintained its policy of cutting down production in the wake of an impending demand slowdown, the Brent crude and WTI crude ended the week with a gain of 10% and 9% respectively.
• India’s tax collection from the sale of goods and services soared 26 per cent to Rs 1.47 trillion in September, on account of rising demand, higher rates, and greater tax compliance. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection remained above the Rs 1.4 trillion mark for the seventh straight month during the month up 27% YoY.
• S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI in September was 55.1, as against August’s 56.2. Despite cooling down from August, despite India’s manufacturing activity losing a bit of momentum the rates of expansion remained historically high. The S&P report stated that manufacturing PMI was in expansion for the 15th month in a row.
• Indian automakers witnessed strong sales growth in September as an improved supply of vehicles and pre-festive season inventory build-up at dealerships boosted dispatches. Carmakers either reported the highest-ever monthly sales or touched peak dispatches in many months. For two-wheeler companies, exports were weak with motorcycle sales also disappointing in the domestic market. The sales volumes in the commercial vehicles and tractors segment were also robust, suggesting an even stronger festival season for companies.
• The World Bank on Thursday projected a growth rate of 6.5 per cent for the Indian economy for FY23, a drop of one per cent from its previous June 2022 projections. India is expected to be the outperforming economy in FY23 despite multiple headwinds.
• OPEC+ agreed on its deepest cuts to oil production since the COVID-19 pandemic on Wednesday by 2 million barrels per day. The cut could spur a recovery in oil prices that have dropped to about $90 from $120 three months ago on fears of a global economic recession, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar.
• The foreign institutional investors (FII) continued to be sellers and sold equities worth Rs 360 mn while Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to be buyers and bought equities worth Rs 9,640mn during the week.

Things to watch out for next week

• This week will be very crucial for Indian Equity markets as the investors will closely watch Q2 Earnings releases from IT companies, and commentary about demand headwinds and deal pipelines would be on the radar.
• Various Macroeconomic statistics such as IIP, CPI, WPI, Balance of Trade and the RBI MPC Policy Meet Minutes will be out in the upcoming week which may lead to increased volatility during the week.

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