SBI: Retail Advances drive the Advances growth

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed 1.4% higher at 11,787 points on hopes of fresh tax reforms that may lower taxes applicable to capital markets. In the sector-wise performances, Auto (+4.3%) and Metal (+4.0%) were the top gainers while Media (-0.3%) was the only sector to close in the red. Amongst the NIFTY 50 Stocks, TATAMOTORS (+16.6%) , JSWSTEEL (+6.7%), TATASTEEL (+6.4%) and YESBANK (+6.3%) were the top gainers while INFRATEL (-9.0%) and BHARTIARTL (-3.3%) were the top losers.

SBI: Retail Advances drive the Advances growth

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Dinesh Kumar Khara, MD SBI; dated 29th October 2019 on ET Now:

  • While talking about the State Bank of India (SBIN) 2QFY20 results, the advances grew ~9% YoY and deposits grew ~8% YoY. The retail advances did well. The retail personal advances growth of ~19% drove the overall advance’s growth. Corporate advances reported muted growth.
  • Slippages have come down YoY by ~18% and credit cost are at sub 2% levels.
  • Net Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) at 2.79% and Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) has gone up to 81%+.
  • Corporate investments are awaited and the utilisation levels are pretty low. Mr Khara expects the utilisations to go up.
  • Personal loans grew by ~19% YoY. There is a lag on the demand on the street and the investment which comes through and the corporate credit demand.
  • The provision for wage increase is a significant component of the cost to income. The PCR is much higher than the Loss Given Default (LGD). This will result in the credit cost to come down going forward.
  • The sale of subsidiary drove the bottom-line growth in 2QFY20. SBIN not looking for any further divestment.
  • The real credit growth and demand pickup in the economy will become from the real economy.  Banks are geared up to meet the demand from the corporate side. Banks have tightened underwriting standards after recent experiences and continue to lend.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing website)

  • The closing price of SBIN was ₹ 280/- as of 29-October-19. It traded at 1.11x /1.0x /0.86x the consensus Book Value for FY20E / 21E / 22E of ₹ 253/283/325 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 372/- implies a Price to Book multiple of 1.14x on FY22E Book Value of ₹ 325/-.

Kajaria Ceramics CMD Ashok Kajaria: Reduction in FY20 revenue guidance

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY closed flat with a marginal 0.01% gain. Yes Bank (+11.2%), SBI (+7.6%) and ICICI Bank (+3.2%) were the top NIFTY50 gainers. Bharti Infratel (-8.6%), Tata Motors (-5.4%) and Titan (-2.9%) were the top NIFTY50 losers. Among the sectors, NIFTY PSU BANK (+3.4%), NIFTY IT (+0.8%) and NIFTY MEDIA (+0.5%) were the top performers while NIFTY METAL (-0.4%), NIFTY AUTO (-0.3%) and NIFTY FMCG (-0.2%) were the top losers.

Excerpts from an interview with Mr Ashok Kajaria broadcasted on CNBC on 23rd October 2019.

  • Kajaria Ceramics reported 1% volume growth in 2QFY20. The quarter was an aberration. Bad market sentiment, tight liquidity situation, floods in several parts of the country and Kashmir situation impacted the volume growth. Kashmir comprises 6% of Kajaria’s market share and there were no dispatches to Kashmir from 5th August 2019.
  • Things have started turning positive. 3QFY20E and 4QFY20E will be more like 10% volume growth reported in 1QFY20 or slightly better.
  • EBITDA margin was 14.7% in 2QFY20. Management has guided FY20E margins to be close to 15.0%-16.0%. 
  • Earlier the management had guided to volume growth of 15.0% for 2HFY20E and 12.0%-13.0% for FY20E. As per the current scenario, the growth guidance is moderated to 11.0%-12.0% for 2HFY20E and 10.0% for FY20E.
  • On the real estate demand front, retail demand is very good. Commercial real estate demand is very bad. Improvement has come in the government sector in healthcare and education by way of projects by various state governments. Marked improvement has been seen in these 2 sectors in the last 2-2.5 years. Private real estate is still very bad. 
  • Smaller business verticals of Kajaria have been growing faster than the overall business. Bathware and sanitaryware closed at Rs 2,000 mn in FY19. Management had guided to 30% growth in FY20E. They haven’t been able to achieve that yet but are confident of achieving the target. 
  • Plywood business was a Rs 170 mn business in FY19. Management is targeting Rs 360 mn revenue in FY20E.
  • On the industry in Morbi, Gujarat, the topline growth was negative in FY19 and FY20E is expected to be flat. The reasons being plant shutdowns in Morbi due to gasifiers being shut down, and the industry players being in deep trouble with a lot of cash flow problems due to GST.
  • One positive thing for the industry in Morbi is the exports. In FY19, the Morbi industry did  Rs 70,000 mn of exports out of total industry size on Rs 285,000 mn. In FY20E, the industry target for exports is more than Rs 90,000 mn. If the exports pan out, the players will be okay as the domestic market continues to have a lot of problems. 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website) 

The stock price was Rs 548/- as of close price of 25-10-19 and traded at 30.8x /26.0x /21.8x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E of Rs 17.8/21.1/25.1 respectively.

Consensus target price of ₹ 608/- implies a Price to earnings multiple of 24.2x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 25.1/-.

Practice – Nobody is perfect but you can aim to get better

This post is part of a series on The Virtuous Investor written by Joachim Klement. Let’s face it, we all make mistakes, both as investors and in our lives. There is no shame in making mistakes, but there is shame in not wanting to get better at whatever you strive to do. If you want to be a great painter, you better paint as many paintings as you can. The first few are likely going to be rubbish, but over time, your skills will develop, and you will get better at it. Does that mean you are going to be the next Leonardo da Vinci or Pablo Picasso? Probably not, because these painters had an exceptional amount of talent that only very few people have. But that talent needed to be exercised and practised before it could come to full fruition.

What is true for artists is true for investors as well. We all have to practice investing in order to get better. And just like most artists never will be as good as Leonardo, so too will most investors never be as good as Warren Buffett. But you can at least strive to become the best investor you can be. There is one crucial difference between artists and investors. While we can choose to become an artist or not, everyone is forced to become an investor, whether they like it or not.

The practice is a necessity for investors, but unfortunately, practice is only half the ticket to better returns. The other half is to learn from past mistakes. And unfortunately, this is where most investors fail miserably. As investors, we tend to forget our past mistakes and remember our past successes.

The virtuous investor is aware of this faulty financial memory and uses techniques to record investment decisions and learn from mistakes. The simplest technique Klement knows of and uses are investment diaries. In an investment diary, you record every investment decision you make with three short bullet points:

  1. What decision did I make?
  2. Why do I think this investment is going to make money?
  3. What could go wrong?

These three bullet points in your investment diary give you a picture of your thinking. After a while (and Klement recommends doing this regularly) you can review past decisions and your thinking at the time. This way, you will start to understand where you made mistakes in your investment decisions and learn to avoid these mistakes over time. Klement admits that it is a long and tedious process that will improve your investment performance only gradually, but as with almost all things in life, there are no shortcuts.

Becoming a good investor not only takes years of practice, it takes years of deliberate practice which means not just doing things, but systematically reviewing past actions to learn from past mistakes and build on past successes.

SBI chairman: Economy in the transition phase, growth to come back

Update on the Indian Equity Market:On Thursday, BSE benchmark Sensex ended 38 points lower, while Nifty ended below 11,600. Among the sectors, PSU Banks (-3.5%) dragged the most. Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries were the top gainers. Infratel and Grasim were among the top losers. Maruti Suzuki on Thursday posted a 39% year-on-year (YoY) fall in September quarter profit, which was better than Street expectations. The market was moved by SC decision relating to telecom industry and the trends of Maharashtra and Haryana assembly poll results.

SBI chairman: Economy in the transition phase, growth to come back

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Rajnish Kumar, Chairman, SBI Bank; dated 24th October 2019: The Indian economy is in a transition phase largely owing to important reforms undertaken in the last few years. Mr. Kumar is exuding confidence that the country’s growth rate will be back on track.

  • Due to a lot of reforms, the economy is in transition. Reforms like GST (goods and services tax) and IBC (insolvency and bankruptcy code) have been implemented in the last three years because of which India is in a transition period. As a result, a lot of cleanup has happened in the corporate sector. He is of the view that disruption is bound to happen in the transition phase.
  • Mr Kumar said that in terms of development, India is still not in the “developed” category. Besides, the per capita income is still low. There is a huge scope for growth in India, and demographics are also not against India. Unlike many other developed countries where they are facing challenges on account of demographics, India does not have that kind of challenge at least for the time being.
  • According to Mr Kumar, the Indian economy is seeing the bottom as far as economic growth is concerned. He expects the market to go up from now because each sector is now starting to perform well. For example, in agriculture, this year’s position is better even in terms of credit. He also mentioned manufacturing and private sector investment in infrastructure is still slow.
  • Observing that the Modi government over the past few years has brought banking to the doorsteps of every household, Mr Kumar said the activation of these accounts have reached almost 90 per cent. Besides, balances of these accounts are now reaching a level where servicing these accounts is “not a loss-making proposition” for the banks.
  • He stated that the average balance in these accounts is touching ₹1,900 and about ₹230 bn in June was the balance in the savings bank account. This itself benefits the economy as such a large population is brought under the banking channels.
  • Noting that the biggest challenge in the banking sector was about the functioning of the public sector banks, Mr Kumar said that recapitalization has happened in a big way but sectoral issues need to be addressed like the power, road and telecom sectors. As these sectoral issues impact the working of the banks, particularly on the asset quality front.
  • He further said that in this government there is no political interference in the banking sector. State Bank of India has been more immune to any pressures because the systems are such that it is very difficult for any Chairman/MD to influence any decision-making process.
  • When asked about cryptocurrency, which has been banned in India, the SBI chairman said that the way the world is moving towards digitisation, at some stage, a regulated cryptocurrency would be a better bet than an unregulated one. He also cautioned about the dark side of the internet as there can be a misuse of the digital currencies. He further added that regulation is a must adding that efforts are on how to bring technologies like blockchain into functioning of the banks.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website) 

  • The stock price was Rs 262/- as of close price of 24-10-19 and traded at 1.03x /0.92x /0.79x the consensus Book Value for FY20E / 21E / 22E of Rs 254/286/331 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 275/- implies a Price to Book Value multiple of 0.83x on FY22E Book Value of ₹ 331/-.

Festive season: A hope for automakers

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed 0.1% higher. Among sectoral indices NIFTY PSU Bank (+2.1%), NIFTY Auto (+1.3%), NIFTY IT (+1.0%) closed higher while NIFTY Media (-1.3%), NIFTY Realty (-0.9%), NIFTY Metal (-0.3%) ended on a negative note. The biggest gainers were HCL tech (+3.5%), Eicher Motors (+2.5%), Infosys (+2.3%) whereas Adani Ports (-6.1%), Bharti Airtel (-3.7%), Zeel (-3.4%) ended with high losses.

Excerpts from an interview of Mr Vinkesh Gulati, Vice President FADA (Federation Of Automobile Dealers Association)

  • The entire auto sector in our country has shown a downturn. With all major OEM’s showing a decline in number, it is the festive season which gives hope to automakers.
  • Mr Gulati says sentiment during festive season goes up and enquiries start to come in. Passenger vehicle (PV) segment is showing similar signs this year too.
  • It is expected that better conversions will happen as compared to the last six months.
  • He says the two-wheeler market is not showing good signs. The overall situation in the two-wheeler market is grim.
  • In the past year, the passenger vehicle (PV) segment has shown decline of 8-10 percent. This year the expected decline is less 1-2 percent or similar as last year.
  • The two-wheeler segment is expected to degrade and continue to decline around 8-12 percent.
  • Mr Gulati says the reason behind the decline of the 2-wheeler segment is because it is a reflection of rural and semi-urban market sentiment.
  • 2 wheelers segment is majorly based in the rural and semi-urban market and the sentiment there is still not changed. Rural market is still not picking up festive hype.
  • He says Automakers are offering steep discounts to increase sales and the festive season is the best time to buy.
  • Speaking on the discount front, he says, discounts are similar to what they were in Navratri. Furthermore, discount is given by dealers on their own to liquidate their inventory.
  • From December onwards it is expected that all OEM’s will come out with their BS-VI variants and again during December there will be discounts on BS-IV to liquidate inventory.

L&T Infotech: Aims to achieve double-digit growth in FY20E

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed 0.6% lower at 11,590 points; reversing the trend of the last 6 sessions. The whistle-blower complaint against Infosys was the talk of the day which dragged the markets down. Amongst the NIFTY 50 Stocks, DRREDDY (+3.5%) and ICICIBANK (+3.2%) were the top gainers while INFY (-16.7%), TATAMOTORS (-4.0%) with other banks dragged the NIFTY down. In the sector-wise performances, Pharma (+2.0%) and Financial Services (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers while IT (-4.8%) was the biggest loser for the day.

L&T Infotech: Aims to achieve double-digit growth in FY20E

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Sanjay Jalona, MD & CEO L&T Infotech; dated 18th October 2019 on CNBC TV 18:

  • The old announced large deals are ramping up well. L&T Infotech (LTI) announced 3 more large deals in 2QFY20. LTI is confident of achieving a double-digit growth rate for FY20 despite a struggle in 1Q and 2Q of FY20.
  • There was a ~50 bps reduction in EBIT in 2QFY20. The wage hike for the LTI is effective in July. So, the entire hit comes in 2Q financials. The impact was ~160 bps in 2QFY20. The cost savings in visa expenses and other operational optimizations provided support of ~110 bps. The net margins were 13%, lower by ~30bps YoY.
  • LTI maintains the PAT margin guidance of ~14-15% for FY20E.
  • In the Banking & Financial Sector (BFS) sector, top clients saw budget cuts. LTI expects to see a recovery in 3QFY20.
  • In the BFS segment, LTI executed a deal of separation of a bank from a larger bank in FY19. It was a one-off assignment which provided the ~US $ 30-40 mn incremental revenue to LTI. The separation was completed successfully. But as this was a non-recurring one-off contract. This deal leads to a high base effect. Apart from that, in BFS; LTI is focussing on client-specific problems.
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrade of the Global economic growth outlook from 3.8% to 3%; will lead to some nervousness in the industry. LTI continues to see the excitement and a pipeline in deals but the nervousness persists. LTI is not seeing any delays in projects.
  • Management expects the digital technology to drive change for the customer. Management is looking forward to stronger 2HFY20 and is very positive on FY21 as well. 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of LTI was ₹ 1,611/- as of 22-October-19. It traded at 19x/16x/14x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 86/ 100/ 112 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 1,808/- implies a PE multiple of 16x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 112 /-

Wipro: 3rd quarter will be better than both quarter 1 and 2

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, Equity market traded higher for 6th straight session as the Nifty moved 0.7% higher to close at 11,661. This market movement is correlated with the incoming flows from the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian equities. The FIIs have turned net buyers into the markets for the past five days. Among the sectors, all but one sector was in red i.e. the Media (-1.0%). All other sectors traded higher with Realty (1.9%), Metals (1.9%) and PSU banks (1.5%) led the gains. Within the stocks, Yes Bank (8.2%), Coal India (3.3%) and Adani Ports (3.2%) led the gains whereas Zee (-5.6%), Tata Motors (-2.1%) and Cipla (-1.4%) dragged the index lower.

3rd quarter will be better than both quarter 1 and 2: Wipro

Key takeaways from the interview of Mr Abidali Neemuchwala, MD & CEO, Mr Jatin Dalal, CFO, Mr Bhanu Murthy, President & COO, and Mr Saurabh Govil, President & Chief Human Resources Officer, Wipro Ltd. (Wipro): dated 16th October 2019 with ETNOW:

  • Mr Neemuchwala mentioned that the guidance given to its investors during the September result reflect the optimism of the company that 3rd quarter will be better than both the 1st and 2nd quarters.
  • The trade agreements impacted industries that have big global supply chains like manufacturing, auto industry, etc. While the pipeline for the company looks good, in the first quarter, the company had secured a couple of large deal wins but the clients did they did not get signed. The customers told the company that the company has won the deal but it took three months to sign it in 2nd quarter. This is the reason the company is confident about the 3rd quarter.
  • Talking about the margins, Mr Dalal said that he does not have particular range for operating margins for the company. He mentioned that the company has remained resilient and focussed on delivering a good outcome on margins every quarter over the last six quarters. The company will remain focussed on that going forward too.
  • Mr Murthy said that all the business units delivered positive year on year growth for company. Three of them delivered better than the Wipro average growth rates. On the Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) side, the company has heavily invested in the digital transformation of the BFSI customers. There is an uncertainty overhang there right now.
  • According to Mr Dalal, the attrition story has played out over the past few quarters and it has been well thought through thing of investing on employees. As a result, currently there is some traction in terms of investments in salaries, bonuses, rolls, hiring and the various things that the company has done across the globe. All that has now resulted in seeing that workforce, especially the junior workforce, being much more engaged and that is what is delivering results for the company.
  • About the sub-contracting expenses, Mr Dalal mentioned that the expenses have come down but he called it as the first step towards being more self-reliant on supply chain. According to him, sometimes it is more pragmatic to use subcontracting to capture demand and then subsequently build it through its own supply chain. The company will remain very practical and pragmatic around the way it uses subcontractors all over the world.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Wipro was ₹ 249/- as of 18-October-19. It traded at 15x/ 14x/ 13x the consensus EPS for FY 20E/ FY 21E/ FY 22E of ₹ 16.7/ 17.5/ 18.6 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 252/- implies a PE multiple of 14x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 18.6/-.

The Price of Certainty

Ian Cassel writes that an investor learns from hindsight and get paid for foresight. Often times an opportunity exists because the conditions aren’t perfect yet. Investor has to pull the trigger in advance of all the pieces coming together. Investment success is determined by two things: First, How well you assimilate imperfect information and Second, Your ability to identify when you are wrong quicker.  

Jeff Bezos of Amazon said the following about decision making. Cassel thinks that it is the perfect description of investing: “Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.”

The price of certainty is expensive because it slows you down. We want to know everything. If I just knew a little more. A little more. A little more. But knowing more often times breeds confidence but not accuracy. 

Cassel thinks if Bezos would have continued his quote he would have said focus on the 70% that matters and be okay if the 30% you don’t know hurts you. You have to live with the possibility that you could be wrong. You can’t let the fear of the 30% steal your courage to move forward if you believe the odds are in your favor. 

How can you be both quick and accurate?  Cassel applies four filters to every new company he evaluates: An organization with signs of intelligent fanaticism; A business that can grow through a recession; A balance sheet that can weather a storm and act with occasional boldness; A stock that can conservatively double in 3 years.

When Cassel applies these four filters he might miss something, but it cuts to the core of what is important. He can normally size up a new opportunity that he is attracted to in a few hours. Over the years Cassel found being quick has served better than being slow. If it takes a long time to get to a buy decision then it probably isn’t a buy. The great opportunities are normally obvious, at least to an investor.

In addition, Cassel found buying small and averaging up later as you gain additional conviction is a great way to counterbalance being fast and right with the risk of being fast and wrong. You aren’t going to be right all the time, but try to be wrong as fast as you can and move on. 

“Be willing to make decisions. That’s the most important quality of a good leader. Don’t fall victim to what I call the “ready-aim-aim-aim-aim” syndrome. You must be willing to fire.” – T. Boone Pickens

Blue Star- The demand in the festival season is expected to grow 12% YoY in FY20

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY was up 1.07% to close at 11,586 level. The top performers in the index were yes bank (+15.47%), Tata motors (+13.27%) and Eicher Motors (+7.96%). HCL tech (-1.06%), VEDL (-0.97%) and Grasim (-0.59%) were the worst performing NIFTY stocks. Among the sectorial indices, NIFTY Auto (+3.13%), NIFTY PSU Banks (+3.0%) and NIFTY PVT Bank (+1.71%) were the top gainers. NIFTY IT (-0.41%) was the only negative performing index today as all the other indices were in green.

Excerpts of an interview with B. Thiagarajan, managing director, Blue Star (From Livemint dated 17/10/2019)

  • According to Mr. Thiagrajan, the festival season has been good.   Summer season has been great. Starting with Onam, the Dussehra season and now leading up to Diwali the consumption seems to be good and they are doing better than the market.
  • They are launching new TV commercial, print and digital campaigns in an orbit-shifting move. It is because the market is doing well.
  • They have engaged Virat Kohli and it is a new orbit-shifting move as far as Blue Star is concerned.
  • Advertising expesnes will be somewhere around 12% over last year in value terms. Considering the entire festival season up to New Year perhaps starting from Onam. So far that figure is holding good.
  • They would like to grow faster than the market. If the market is growing by 12%, they would aim to have 17% growth in the festival season. He expects between 10-12% market growth, anywhere between 15-17% Blue Star growth. This is in terms of room air conditioners.
  • In air conditioners the penetration levels are around 6%, there are many first-time buyers, low-end products are getting sold, and consumer finance is at an all-time high.
  • 90% energy consumption reduction has been achieved in AC. So it is no longer viewed as an energy guzzling device. Altogether, the monsoon season has ended well. Though there will be some delayed crops, he thinks agriculture income will be good.
  • Therefore tier-3-4-5 markets also should be doing well. This prompts him to say that anywhere between 10% and 12% growth should be taking place in the market.
  • Association with Virat will be for 14 months. Just like Virat is good in T20, one day and test cricket, Blue Star is a player in corporate commercial; light commercial like shop, showroom, and boutiques and residential. They need the mass connect because tier-3-4-5 towns are doing well. They are proud of that association.
  • They will spend around ₹550 mn out of the revenue target in this association. In terms of percentage of ad expenses to revenue it is not going to make a difference because they are growing and this association is going to bring more sales, they are excited about this.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The stock price was ₹ 826/- as of close of 17-10-19 and traded at 39x/ 29x/ 23x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E EPS of ₹ 23.1 /28.3 /36.1 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 805/- implies a PE multiple of 22x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 36.1/-.

In 2-3 years, Bharat Forge will not look like a forging company.

Update on  Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY was up 0.4% to close at 11,472 level. The top performers that aided the positive movement in the index were BPCL (+4.3%), Bajaj Finance (+3.8%) and Zee (+3.7%). Hero (-2.8%), Vedanta (-2.5%) and Hindalco (-2.4%) were the worst-performing NIFTY stocks. Among the sectoral indices, NIFTY IT (+1.0%), NIFTY MEDIA (+0.8%) and NIFTY REALTY (+0.8%) were the top gainers. NIFTY PSU BANK (-0.8%), NIFTY METAL (-0.5%) and NIFTY AUTO (-0.2%) were the top losers.

In 2-3 years, Bharat Forge will not look like a forging company.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Baba Kalyani, Chairman and MD, Bharat Forge. The interview was published in Mint dated 15th October 2019.

  • There is some order coming back into the auto industry with retail demand beginning to increase and production being curtailed to get the inventory down. It will take a little while before the order is restored completely and growth will come after that. It will take a couple of months for the inventory to get to a proper level.
  • The largest slowdown is in domestic medium and heavy market with month on month declines of 40-50%. The industry has never seen this kind of slowdown.
  •  Among the international markets, North America and Europe are going at reasonable levels. There is some pick up happening in Brazil. The problem is in the Indian vehicle market which needs to get sorted out.
  • Bharat Forge is doing reasonably well in the railways’ segment. It is a niche market that is not high in volume. Bharat Forge has 4 customers which are the major OEMs. Along with crankshafts, the company is starting to move towards turbochargers, connecting rods. They are trying to enlarge the business by enlarging the product mix. 
  • In the aerospace segment, Bharat forge has consciously decided to move to high-value niche products. The company manufactures critical components such as turbine blades, shafts, and landing gears. They are not into the high volume structure side of the business as it has too many participants and the margins are not great.
  • It takes a long time to become a supplier in the critical components such as the turbine blades or rotating shafts. These are very critical and safety components that cannot be failing. Bharat Forge has been successful in becoming a supplier of these components and the management hopes to start seeing better volumes.
  • The current downturn, although painful, is helping the company to reshape and restructure itself from a product, process, and technology point of view. 
  • In the next 2-3 years, Bharat Forge will not be seen as a forging company. It will become a technology company.  The company is doing a lot of things in the electric vehicle space and other technology spaces. They have developed a promising new technology space using their nanotechnology expertise of converting waste to wealth. 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The stock price was ₹ 428/- as of close of 16-10-19 and traded at 20x/ 18x/ 16x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E EPS of ₹ 21.4 /23.5 /26.5 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 444/- implies a PE multiple of 17x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 26.5/-.