30 Aug

Strong tailwinds for Steel production in India – Jindal Steel and Power

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, markets ended at an all-time closing high with Nifty closing 226 points higher to close at 16,931. BHARTIARTL (5.0%), DIVISLAB (4.2%), and AXISBANK (4.0%) were the top gainers on the index while TECHM (-1.4%), NESTLEIND (-1.1%), and EICHERMOT(-1.1%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  METAL  (2.5%), PSU BANK (2.0%), and BANK (2.0%) were the top gainers, while IT (-0.6%) was the only laggard.

Excerpts of the Interview with Mr. VR Sharma, Managing Director at Jindal Steel and Power Ltd on Economic Times, dated 24th August 2021:

  • The steep fall in Iron Ore prices has lifted the market spirits across the world. However, that hasn’t translated to a fall in steel prices due to stiffness in coking coal prices and high input costs for other ferrous metals. 
  • The lower iron prices aided by a $1000/MT steel price in international markets are translating into improved gross margins for producers, and the market will likely stabilise at these levels.
  • India has to reach a level of about 300 million tonnes by 2030. In nine years, it may be producing about 300 million tonnes of steel and consuming the same quantity. 
  • Overnight it is very difficult to build up capacities. Building up capacities takes about three to four years, all-steel producers are bullish about India’s prospects, and a Rs. 2 tn investment is expected to be made over the next 5 years.
  • The sector is showing healthy growth and the demand has already begun to pick up, the company expects the entire steel sector to shine in the upcoming years.
  • Steel demand will continue because infrastructure projects are in offing and there are a lot many projects on the table now. The construction sector is booming and the shipbuilding sector, defence sector, and the oxygen cryogenic plants are increasing in terms of number.
  • Headwinds such as adverse Chinese Steel Policy, logistical bottlenecks, Covid induced supply disruptions have led to coking coal prices being inflated. This is putting pressure on steel prices which are not expected to recover in the short term.
  • The industry expects to shift from coking coal to indigenous coal, which is both cost friendly and environment friendly and offers protection from such price shocks.
  • The Chinese steel industry has seen a  dip in production and consequently exports, being the second-largest steel producer, India is well poised to take the benefits of  Chinese fallback,

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • The cyclical recovery in the steel sector may have finally arrived. With the tailwinds for this industry, it is likely to grow fast over new capex and recovery cycle for the decade. 
  • Jindal Steel and Power is one of the largest steel producers in India. It is well poised to reap the benefits of scale and the tailwinds. It is likely to deliver great value to its shareholders.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Jindal Steel and Power was ₹ 379/- as of 30-August-2021.  It traded at 7x/5x the EPS estimate of ₹56/₹ 77  for FY22E/23E. 
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 538/- implies a PE multiple of 7x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 77/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

By Jindal Steel & Power Limited , , 0 Comments Read more...
29 Aug

This Week in a nutshell (Aug 23rd to Aug 27th)

This Week in a nutshell (Aug 23rd to Aug 27th)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 23rd Aug at 16,450 and closed on 27th Aug at 16,705. This is the highest closing ever for the index. The index made a weekly gain of 2.9%. On the technical front, 16,650 will act as immediate support and if this level is broken, the Nifty may slide to 16,575-16,500 levels. On the upper side, 16,780 will act as a hurdle. Once the level is breached, the Nifty can move to 16,840-16,900 levels.

Weekly highlights

  • Dalal Street rose to record closing highs on Friday, weekly gains were led by IT (+2.9%), Financial Services (+2.1%) and Pharma sector (1.7%).
  • The midcap index logged its best week in two-and-a-half months. However, weakness in auto sector played spoilsport, keeping the upside in check.
  • The US Food and Drug Administration’s full approval to Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine rekindled hope and optimism about a quicker recovery from a slowdown caused by the pandemic.
  • Renewed tensions between China and the US, the fear of a rise in the number of Covid-19 Delta variant infections, suicide attacks at the Kabul airport in Afghanistan that killed at least 12 US service members and scores of Afghans and the US central bankers’ annual symposium kept investors cautious around the globe.
  • As the trading week ended, Indian market participants and analysts keenly awaited updates from the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming for more clarity on the US monetary policy going forward.
  • S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s wait-and-see approach in a much-anticipated address on Friday gave US investors and market participants some reassurance that the central bank’s extraordinary efforts to prop up the economy were likely to support riskier assets a while longer.
  • US Stocks gained ground after the release of the text of Powell’s speech, with the benchmark S&P 500 index hitting a record high, while the lack of any new hints on when the U.S. central bank is likely to begin paring bond purchases led Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar lower.
  • The foreign institutional investors (FII) sold equities worth Rs 68,333 mn, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 63,826 crore. So far in August, FIIs have sold equities worth Rs 76,525 mn and DIIs have bought equities worth Rs 80,782 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

  • Indian Markets – Indian investors are likely to react to the statement made by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in the Jackson Hole symposium in which he has also hinted about tapering by end of CY21. Investors will also eye 1QFY22 GDP print, auto sales numbers and global cues in coming week.
  • US Markets – Markets will keep an eye on a window into how the Delta variant has rippled through the economy, with the release of the U.S. jobs report for the month of Aug-21, following recent weak readings on consumer sentiment and retail sales. The seven-day average of new reported cases reached about 155,000, the highest in about seven months, Reuters data through Thursday showed.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

By Uncategorized 0 Comments Read more...
26 Aug

Expect demand uptick, but supply chain issues persist – Galaxy Surfactants

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY ended at 16,637 (+0.01%) as it closed near the opening level of 16,628. Among the sectoral indices, OIL & GAS (+0.8%), CONSUMER DURABLES (+0.6%), and FMCG (+0.6%) ended higher, whereas METAL (-1.3%), MEDIA (-1.2%), and PSU BANK (-0.8%) ended lower. Among the stocks, BRITANNIA (+2.7%), TATACONSUM (+2.2%), and BPCL (+1.8%) led the gainers while BHARTIARTL (-4.4%), JSWSTEEL (-1.8%), and MARUTI (-1.5%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. U Shekhar, Founder Promoter and MD of Galaxy Surfactants (GALAXYSURF) with CNBC TV18 on 26th August 2021:

  • The demand for the company’s products has been low in the first quarter of FY22 due to the 2nd Covid wave. The company sees demand getting better in the August and September months. However, the challenge of the supply chain is hampering the company’s ability to supply and cater to the increased demand.
  • The supply chain constraints faced are due to the shortage of containers, and closing of various ports in China. The logistics have been severely impacted due to the Covid and freight costs continue to be at high levels.
  • The workers in the company are unable to work due to the Covid wave in Indonesia and Malaysia, because of which the production is getting hampered.
  • The company sees significant opportunity in terms of its innovation products on speciality ingredients. The company is also commissioning its major project in Jagadia, Gujarat in the next 30 days and some more projects will commission in the next three-four months.
  • The expansion projects in the company’s Egypt factory will be operational in 3 to 4 months which will help the company to broaden the category of products in Egypt and also help serve the countries in Europe and US, much faster.
  • The company has planned a capex of ₹ 1500 mn each in the next 2 years and is well placed for financing this capex.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • In the next few months, better availability of containers, easing restrictions, workers coming back to work, these will help reduce the supply side constraints for the company.
  • The company will be able to better cater to the strong demand as people around the world get vaccinated and things normalise.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of GALAXYSURF was ₹ 3,094/- as on 26-Aug-2021. It traded at 35x/ 30x/ 27x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 89/105/114 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 3,417/- implies a PE multiple of 30x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 114/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Galaxy Surfactants 0 Comments Read more...
25 Aug

No Plans to enter EV Segment in the short term: Maruti Suzuki

 

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended flat with Nifty closing 10 points lower to close at 16,634.  EICHERMOT (3.7%), HDFCLIFE (2.6%), HINDALCO (2.4%) were the top gainers on the index while BAJAJFINSV(-2.9%), TITAN (-2.2%) and MARUTI (-1.3%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  OIL & GAS (1.1%), IT (0.7%) and FMCG (06%) were the top gainers, while PRIVATE BANK (-0.9%), METAL (-0.8%) and REALTY(-0.8%) were the top losers.

 

Excerpts of the Address by RC Bhargava, Chairman, Maruti Suzuki at 40th AGM dated 24th August 2021:

 

  • The Company will not enter electric vehicles in the short term and will enter “only when it is feasible” to sell reasonable numbers. The sales volume of existing EV (Electric Vehicle) Players is not significant enough to threaten Maruti’s Market Share.
  • The company is a market leader in ICE (Internal Combustion Engine). It has plans to be a market leader in EVs as well but the company feels, the conditions for EV penetration in India are not adequate yet.
  • The company’s short term focus is on Hybrid CNG to manage the headwinds raised by rising fuel prices until EVs reach their inflexion point.
  • The company plans to launch an SUV in this high growth segment with the aim to capture more market share in this highly competitive field consisting of a lot of players.
  •  The company is currently facing production issues due to semiconductor shortages. This is expected to continue till the end of FY22. There’s a significant reduction in production, however, no major operational loss is evident.  
  • The Company’s planned Capex is Rs. 45 bn but the company expects there will be a significant deviation in actuals by the end of the year.
  • There’s very low penetration per capita when it comes to the passenger vehicles segment. He feels that in order for India to be fully developed, India should not be pressured to meet its carbon emission reduction norms.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments:

 

  • Maruti Suzuki has a great brand presence across all segments in the Indian markets. With its cautious stance on EV, it risks losing out on market share to more aggressive EV players like Tata Motors.
  • ICE Vehicles are not still being phased out at a very rapid pace and a complete transition to EV is still a long way off. Till then Maruti Suzuki will likely continue to enjoy its position as the market leader.

 

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Maruti Suzuki was ₹6711/- as of 25-August-2021.  It traded at 36x/24x /19x the EPS estimate of ₹189/₹ 279/₹ 351  for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 7912/- which will put it at 23x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 351/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

By Maruti Suzuki , , 0 Comments Read more...
24 Aug

Demerger will help maintain focus and direction for both segments – Aarti industries

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, Indian stocks closed in the green aided by positive global cues, and positive U.S. vaccination news. Nifty 50 ended at 16,625 (+0.8%) led higher by BAJAJFINSV (+7.8%), HINDALCO (+3.9%), and ADANIPORTS (+3.8%). The top laggards were BRITANNIA (-1.4%), NESTLEIND (-1.4%), and ASIANPAINT (-1.1%). Among the sectoral indices, METAL (+2.9%), MEDIA (+2.0%), and PSU BANK (+1.8%) led the gainers. Typically considered defensives, FMCG (-0.7%), and IT (-0.2%) led the laggards.

The Board of Aarti Industries recently approved the demerger of its pharma business.  Mr. Rajendra Gogri, MD, Aarti Industries (AARTIIND) discussed the rationale behind this move with Economic Times on 24th August 2021:

  • In the last few years, the pharma business revenues have almost doubled and EBIT has grown four times, with EBIT margins around 20 percent plus. The company foresees a significant opportunity in both, the pharma and specialty chemicals businesses. It has been decided to have a separate company so that there can be a separate focus and strategic direction for both the segments.
  • The process for demerger is expected to be completed in the next 9-15 months depending on the Covid situation.
  • Earlier AARTIIND had announced a Rs 50bn capex plan, out of which Rs7.5 bn will now be spent on the pharma division, and the balance on chemicals.
  • Both the segments have separate manufacturing facilities as well as R&D centres. The customer base also is separate. There is virtually no overlap in manufacturing as well as R&D in the market between both the segments.
  • In pharma, they are looking to add more than 50 products in the next 5-6 years. For pharma intermediates and API, a new greenfield expansion at Atali, Gujarat is being set up.
  • With a strong customer base across the world, AARTIIND expects a sizeable revenue growth over the next few years. In the next five years, the Company is looking at top line 2.5 to 3.5 times and three to four times at EBIT level for both the segments.
  • AARTIIND is totally backward integrated, especially in the Chemicals segment. Benzene is a key raw material which is domestically available and the Company does not foresee any raw material shortages but container freight is an issue. Usually, AARTIIND is able to pass on the freight increase to the customers but the availability of containers is impacting exports.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • China had imposed penalties on chemical companies causing pollution and environmental damage. As a result, many chemical companies’ plants have been shut or relocated outside China. Additionally, with Covid-19 imposed restrictions, supply chain challenges have increased. Chemical companies in India have emerged as a beneficiary due to these challenges under the China+1 strategy.
  • AARTIIND is able to pass on the freight cost hikes to domestic customers almost immediately. There is a quarter’s lag while passing on the freight hikes to overseas customers. As the freight cost is eventually passed fully to the customers, the Company is able to maintain and improve its bottom line.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of AARTIING was ₹ 920/- as on 24-August-2021. It traded at 43x/ 34x/ 33x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 21.3/ 26.7/ 28.0 for FY22E/ 23E/ 24E.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 927/- implies a PE multiple of 33x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 28.0/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Aarti Ind, Chemicals , , 0 Comments Read more...
23 Aug

Now comfortable with organic as well as inorganic growth – Shree Cement

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY closed 0.3% higher at 16,496. Top gainers in NIFTY50 were HCLTECH (+4.3%), TCS (+2.1%), and NESTLEIND (+2.0%). The top losers were GRASIM (-3.1%), ADANIPORTS (-2.8%), and M&M (-2.6%). The top gaining sectors were IT (+1.7%), OIL & GAS (+0.4%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (+0.4%) while the top sectoral losers were MEDIA (-1.7%), AUTO (-1.5%), and REALTY (-1.0%).

Now comfortable with organic as well as inorganic growth – Shree Cement

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. HM Bangur, MD of Shree Cement (SHREECEM), aired on CNBC TV18 on 20th August 2021:

  • SHREECEM saw good average prices in 1QFY22 and management expects prices to remain good. The issue is on the raw material cost pressure. Commodity prices have increased almost 2x vs last year.
  • SHREECEM has hedged fuel upto end of November 2021, meaning energy prices for 2QFY22E will remain at par with 1QFY22.
  • Despite this, management agrees that cement prices have to increase eventually or else margins will suffer for the entire industry. The current commodity cost pressure cannot be endured by companies for a long time.
  • SHREECEM targets to have volumes of 27 to 28 mn tonne for FY22E, translating to a low growth YoY.
  • EBITDA per tonne for SHREECEM should sustain around 1QFY22 levels of Rs 1,481, with a band of +/- Rs 50.
  • Demand in the Northern and Southern India has been good. There is a seasonality factor in Eastern India where demand picks up only after October. There have been no surprises on the demand front. Pressure on demand has subsided after the April-May period as the Covid-19 cases reduced.
  • SHREECEM has about Rs 64,000 mn cash on book. The capex intensity for last 2 years was lower due to Covid-19 disruption. SHREECEM had completed their QIP just a few months before the onset of Covid-19 in India in 2020.
  • On the subject of cash utilization, SHREECEM is planning to order a 4 mn tonne cement unit in north India in the next 1 month.
  • Unlike before, SHREECEM is now comfortable with inorganic growth as well and is looking for acquisition opportunities. Till now were averse to acquisitions- now comfortable with both organic and inorganic growth. Capex gap for 2 years due to covid that’s why there is cash acquisition as did QIP just before covid.

Asset Multiplier comments:

  • In FY21, despite impact of covid-19 on the revenue, Cement companies in India managed to maintain good EBITDA levels due to good pricing, cost optimization, fuel mix optimization and increase in use of green power.
  • Demand for cement in India is expected to remain healthy due to Government’s push on infrastructure, roads and railways, housing and rural development.

 

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

 

  • The closing price of SHREECEM was ₹ 25,854/- as of 23-August-2021.  It traded at 35x/ 30x/ 25x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 741/ 866/ 1,019 for FY22E/23E/24E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 27,718/- which trades at 27x the earnings estimate for FY24E of ₹ 1,019/-

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Shree cement , , 0 Comments Read more...
20 Aug

This week in a nutshell (August 16th to August 20th)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 16th August at 16,518 and closed on 20th August at 16,450. It made a weekly loss of 0.5%. The index is trading near the 10 DMA of 16,414 which might act as a support. On the upside 16,701 level might act as a resistance. The RSI (65), and MACD turning downwards suggests a further possible decline.

Weekly highlights

  • Tens of thousands of people have tried to flee Afghanistan since the Taliban militants entered into its capital Kabul, on Sunday, completing a defeat of government forces and ending two decades of war. On Thursday, the United States struggled to evacuate the Americans and Afghans at Kabul airport due to obstacles like armed Taliban checkpoints and paperwork problems. With a deadline of 31st August declared by the president of America, Joe Biden, thousands of people remain to be airlifted from the chaotic country.
  • PM Narendra Modi on 15th Aug announced a $ 1.35 trillion ‘Gatishakti’ initiative to bring employment opportunities for the youth and to help in infrastructure growth. He said that Gatishakti will help local manufacturers turn globally competitive and develop possibilities of new economic zones.
  • The RBI has partially lifted restrictions that it had imposed on HDFC Bank last December, allowing it to resume issuing credit cards. However, restrictions on new digital launches remain. Despite the ban, HDFC Bank remains the largest credit card issuer, with 14.8 million cards outstanding at the end of June, followed by SBI Card with 12 million and ICICI Bank with 11.03 million. (Source: Mint)
  • Federal Reserve officials made plans to pull back the pace of their monthly bond purchases likely before the end of the year, meeting minutes released on Wednesday indicated. The committee members broadly agreed that employment has not met the “substantial further progress” benchmark the Fed has set before it would consider raising rates.
  • Ola launched its first e-scooter with the Ola S1 series in India on 15th August 2021. The electric scooter was launched in two variants – Ola S1 and Ola S1 Pro. The company is officially opening Ola S1 for purchase from 8th September 2021 and will start delivering across 1,000 cities and towns in October this year. 
  • FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) were net sellers and DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) were net buyers this week. There was a net outflow of Rs 43,144 mn from the FII while DII invested Rs 1,224 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

  • As the world cautiously looks at the further developments in the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, it may have a significant effect on the stock markets.
  • US employment data and the various economies getting back on track after the 2nd covid wave will be among the deciding factors that drive the stock markets.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.” 

 

By #WeekInANutshell 0 Comments Read more...
18 Aug

2 Wheeler EV Segment at a growth inflexion point: Hero Electric

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, markets ended lower with Nifty closing 46 points to close at 16,569. EICHERMOT (+2.7%), ULTRACEMCO (+2.4%) BAJFINANCE (+2.1%) were the top gainers on the index while KOTAKBANK (-2.3%),HINDALCO (-2.3%) and ICICIBANK (-2.0%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  FMCG (0.7%), CONSUMER DURABLES (0.6%) and PSU BANK (0.3%) were the top gainers, while PRIVATE BANK (-0.9%), METAL (-0.8%) and REALTY(-0.8%) were the top losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Naveen Munjal, MD, Hero Electric on ET Now dated 17th August 2021:

  • Electric 2 Wheelers are the most lucrative segment in the EV Industry due to a lot of factors such as fewer infrastructure demands, simpler charging requirements, and ride distances.
  • The biggest tailwind for this segment is government support, FAME II ratings, state-specific concessions, and production-linked incentive schemes for EV Manufacturers.
  • The Total Cost of Ownership gap between ICE and EV is increasing daily due to the rise in fuel prices. Hence, the company expects demand to shift to EVs in the upcoming years to the point it’ll be 20% or a 4 billion unit segment in the next 5 years.
  • The consumer sentiment is shifting towards Electric Mobility not just in urban areas. The penetration is increasing in tier-3, tier-4, and some rural areas as well, so the sales would only go northwards from hereon.
  • The range is adequate for regular usage and for heavy usage the company offers multiple batteries as a backup. Most customers charge their bikes at home. However, the range anxiety can be addressed by installing charging stations, in which the company is investing heavily.
  • The company has also trained 6,000 mechanics and plans to train another 25,000 to solve any potential issues that may arise due to EV Malfunctions thereby creating an entire ecosystem.
  • India is leapfrogging technologies to have the most upgraded know-how as compared to other countries who took the traditional approach of innovating through the years, which is why the performance of Indian EV 2 Wheelers is best in class.
  • R&D that is being done is immense. So the vehicles in the future are going to be far better than what they are at this point. This range of vehicles is already better than what was three or five years back. This demonstrates the huge improvement in technology,

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • Electric Vehicles are a thing of the future due to the headwinds faced by ICE Vehicles, the transition has already begun and India stands to be one of the biggest EV markets in the upcoming decade.
  • There are no pureplay EV Manufacturers that are listed on the bourses. However many 2 Wheeler Manufacturers are planning their foray into this segment. It should be noted that Hero Electric and Hero Motorcorp are two legally distinct entities with no connection to each other.
  • Hero Motorcorp has its own plans to manufacture Electric 2 Wheelers as it wants to expand into this lucrative growth-driven segment.

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Hero Motorcorp was ₹2763/- as of 18-August-2021.  It traded at 17x/14x /12x the EPS estimate of ₹167/₹ 201/₹ 225 for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 3235/- which trades at 14x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 225/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Hero Motocorp , , , 0 Comments Read more...
17 Aug

Infrastructure in place to compete in online pharmacy space – Apollo Hospitals

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY closed 0.3% up at 16,615. Top gainers in NIFTY50 were TATACONSUM (+3.8%), WIPRO (+3.3%), and TECHM (+3.2%). The top losers were JSWSTEEL (-2.4%), ADANIPORTS (-2.3%), and TATAMOTORS (-2.2%). The top gaining sectors were IT (+2.6%), HEALTHCARE (+1.7%), and FMCG (+1.4%) while the top sectoral losers were METAL (-2.3%), PSU BANK (-1.8%), and PRIVATE BANK (-0.8%).

Infrastructure in place to compete in online pharmacy space – Apollo Hospitals

Excerpts of an interview with Ms Suneeta Reddy, MD of Apollo Hospitals (APOLLOHOSP), published on ET Now on 17th August 2021:

  • In 1QFY22, 26% of the total 30% revenue growth was because of Covid revenue. Surgical volumes have started picking up from July 2021.
  • In an attempt to have an omnichannel presence, Apollo’s 247 digital platform offers services, such as online pharmacy and teleconsultations, that are easier to access for the customer. 247 is helping Apollo to expand its reach and funnel patients into the system.
  • 247 is the fastest growing healthcare app in India. Apollo has earmarked Rs 1,500 mn in FY22E as spends for the digital platform, as customer acquisition and marketing are high for the business.
  • Apollo pharmacies have crossed 4,200 stores in India and the company is planning another 150 stores addition. Apollo has a distribution presence in 16,000 pin codes. Due to the wide reach, Apollo has the capability of 24×7 delivery within two hours which is a USP in the e-pharmacy space.
  • In addition to the distribution capabilities, Apollo has 5,500 doctors available for tele-consult within 15 minutes and testing infrastructure. All these factors will help Apollo to compete with other corporate houses entering the online pharmacy space.
  • Apollo plans to spend Rs 2,500 mn on capex in FY22E and Rs 4,500 mn on an acquisition. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 and cash and equivalents of Rs 8,800 mn, Apollo is fully funded to undertake the investments.

Asset Multiplier comments:

  • Online pharmacies have seen a big growth in revenues during the covid-19 second wave. Consumers are preferring the convenience and limited contact nature of online shopping of common medicines, household medical devices such as oximeters, thermometers, and certain FMCG products sold by these players.

 

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener)

 

  • The closing price of APOLLOHOSP was ₹ 4,921/- as of 17-August-2021.  It traded at 86x/ 66x/ 53x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 56.9/ 75.1/ 92.8 for FY22E/23E/24E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 4,399/- which trades at 47x the earnings estimate for FY24E of ₹ 92.8/-

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

By Apollo Hospital, Healthcare , 0 Comments Read more...
16 Aug

Production loss to be minimal despite semi-conductor Shortage: Bharat Forge

 

Update on Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, markets ended higher with Nifty closing 34 points higher to close at 16,130, TATASTEEL(3.7%), BAJFINANCE (3.4%) M&M (2.4%) were the top gainers on the index while MARUTI (-2.6%),SHREECEM (-2.3%) and EICHERMOT (-2.3%) were the top losers for the day. Among the sectoral indices,  METAL  (1.5%), OIL & GAS (0.9%) and  FINANCIAL SERVICES (0.4%) were the top gainers, while MEDIA (-1.4%),  PSU BANK (-1%) and AUTO (-0.9%) were the top losers.

 

Excerpts of an interview with Baba Kalyani, CMD of Bharat Forge on CNBCTV18 dated 13th August 2021:

 

  • Despite mounting input cost inflation, Company managed to expand its margins by 100 bps sequentially and posted robust growth on both Revenue and Net profit Fronts in Q1FY22
  • Semi-Conductor shortage is a universal phenomenon that’s affecting industries and businesses across the world. In the case of OEMs, most of them have taken adequate steps to address this issue. 
  • In the short term, everyone is suffering some loss in production, however, the company expects no adverse impact on production in the medium-long term. The company reiterated that the situation was outside the control of anyone and its a matter of when and not if the issue will be resolved,
  • He stated that the industry has resorted to rationing of semiconductors to produce higher-value products. This will impact the supply in the short term. 
  • A lot of Passenger vehicle manufacturers have resorted to reducing the production of lower end passenger cars against higher value cars that offer better realisations.
  • Cost Reduction was the company’s important priority in the past 2 years and the company has optimised costs through downsizing, IoT and WC Management, to produce the best margins this company has seen.
  • The company has a strong balance sheet and healthy cash balance, the company plans to take forward its growth through inorganic acquisitions aimed at future technologies like e-mobility, renewables etc as the company gears itself for the future.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments:

 

  • The Semi-Conductor shortage will be dealt with sooner rather than later, barring any major disruptions, OEM and the entire Auto and Ancillary sector is recovering well.
  • Bharat Forge has managed to improve its margins and its plans to grow across all segments through strategic investments as it gets ready for the future are on the right track.

 

Consensus Estimates (Source: market screener website): 

  • The closing price of Bharat Forge was ₹803/- as of 16-August-2021.  It traded at 45x/29x /26x the EPS estimate of ₹18/₹ 28/₹ 31 for FY22E/23E/24E.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 900/- which trades at 30x the EPS estimate for FY24E of ₹ 31/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

By Bharat Forge , , , 0 Comments Read more...