Rural India outlook positive on good rabi procurement, cash flow – M&MSharvari Joshi
Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday, NIFTY closed up at 15,834 (+0.7%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Hindalco (+3.8%), ONGC (+2.4%), and SBI (+2.2%). The top losers were Tech M (-1.6%), HDFC Life (-1.4%), and BPCL (-0.6%). The top sectoral gainers were REALTY (+2.7%), METAL (+1.2%) and PVT BANK (1.1%) and sectoral losers were IT (-0.2%) and PHARMA (-0.01%).
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Hemant Sikka, President of Farm Equipment Sector, M&M (M&M) with CNBC-TV18 dated 2nd July 2021
- In the month of June 21, the total tractor sales went up 32 per cent, exports jumped over 90 per cent and the market share rose to 42.5 per cent. The company is optimistic about tractor demand in the coming months. The farm sector equipment industry has grown by 19 per cent in June and M&M has outperformed showing 32 per cent growth.
- The rural outlook looks bright as demand has increased in June. Overall, the rabi procurement has gone around very well. Cash flow in the rural heartland is very positive.
- With the second wave of COVID subsiding, confidence is coming back. It was a play of two factors, clearly, a little bit of pent-up demand and also some fresh demand coming in that is why June has played out so well for the industry overall.
- They are getting into a very high base in Q2, Q3, and Q4 FY21 so they will wait for July and August, see how the monsoon pans out, and then maybe at the beginning of September, they will be able to revise the guidance.
- Overall guidance remains the same and they will try to maintain their usual high & healthy margins.
- In June, pent-up demand was there due to lockdowns in April & May but there was a little bit of fresh demand as well. The tractor industry has been on the roll and if the monsoon progresses well then the industry will be able to perform much better.
- None of the players has a very high inventory. M&M also has a very reasonable inventory. In fact, they have reduced inventory in Q1, so production will be running at full capacity.
- Automakers have raised prices in recent times with most citing increased output costs as a reason. M&M plans to gradually do so.
- They have taken their latest price increase on July 1. They have taken a 3 per cent price increase. Before that on April 1 and January 1, they had taken the previous 2 price increases. Another increase might be there in 2HFY22.
- Some of the states have come back as far as supply is concerned like Maharashtra, all the suppliers are running at 100% capacity. In Karnataka, Bangalore, suppliers are running at 50-60% capacity.
- Overall, they are looking at positive sentiment from the Rural side.
Asset Multiplier comments:
- Due to positive sentiment building up in rural India, we expect the tractor industry to perform very well.
- Overall waiting time has increased due to semiconductor shortage but there has been a good demand for their newly launched models (XUV, Thar, bolero).
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
- The closing price of M&M was ₹ 791/- as of 05-July-2021. It traded at 20x/ 17x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 38.8/ 45.5 for FY22E/23E respectively.
- The consensus price target is ₹ 947/- which trades at 21x the earnings estimate for FY23E of ₹ 45.5/-
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