Real Estate demand growth driven by rising income levels – HDFCRicha Varu Rathod
Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday, markets plunged sharply in continuation to Friday’s fall. After the flat start, weak global cues and updates on the new COVID variant started weighing on the sentiment as the day progressed.
NIFTY ended 1.7% down at 16,912. IT (-2.7%), HEALTHCARE(-1. 9%), and PHARMA (-1.9%) were the top losers and there were no sectoral gainers. The top losers were INDUSINDBK (-3.7%), TATACONSUM (-3.4%), and BAJAJFINSV (-3.3%) while UPL (+0.4%) was the only stock in green.
Real Estate demand growth driven by rising income levels – HDFC
Edited excerpts of an interview with MR. Keki Mistry, Vice-Chairman and Managing Director of Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC Ltd) with CNBCTV18 on 3rd December 2021:
- On new norms on recognition of Non-Performing Assets for Banks and NBFCs issued by RBI: He stated that a few years back NPA were recognized on a 180 days basis that got changed to 90 days. According to the new guidelines published by RBI, once the account is recognized as NPA, Banks won’t be able to upgrade it to standard assets till the whole loan has been repaid. Earlier, an NPA account, after payment of 1-2 installments could be categorized as a standard asset. Temporarily, there will be limited impact on Profit and Loss Account for most of the companies including HDFC but the reported Gross NPAs number will look higher for next 3-4 quarters.
- The real estate market has steadily picked up after the slowdown in the 1HCY21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant lockdowns.
- Mr. Mistry thinks that the interest rates have been bottomed out but he doesn’t see that having a significant impact on the market.
- He thinks that the runway for growth is across the country. In the period from CY17-CY20, the demand was largely focused on the tier-II tier-III towns in the outskirts of big cities. In the last one or two years, cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad, and Chennai are reporting strong growth. A pickup in demand in the metro cities has been witnessed recently.
- Mr. Mistry attributed the rise in demand to
- Income levels rising in the past few years. He explained that the real estate prices have been stable but the income levels grew on an average by 8% per annum in the last 4 years resulting in cumulative 34-35% growth in income levels.
- Low-interest rates
- Feel good factor: He stated that the malls, hospitals, shops, hotels, and restaurants are full as the feel-good effect is driving and keeping people motivated.
- The myth that there is oversupply in Mumbai and Delhi markets has disappeared, so people are not waiting for property rates to subside anymore.
- The HDFC chief believes that affordability has increased in the market and it is an opportune time to buy real estate. To supplement this, he said that October-21 saw the highest level of loan disbursements by HDFC. This indicates strong demand and he expects it to sustain for a long time.
- Mr. Mistry also believes that the lending rates have bottomed out but he does not expect the RBI to start raising rates in a hurry. But throughout the next 6-12 months rate hike is possible. It depends a lot on global factors like inflation, oil prices, and other factors which are not within our control.
- The yield curve, according to him, has been steep due to excess liquidity in the system. This has been reflected in the demand seen in the high-end market which has seen a pickup after being subdued from CY17 to CY20.
Asset Multiplier Comments
- Looking at the macro growth drivers, well-diversified loan portfolio, and adequate liquidity on hand our outlook over the long term remains positive on HDFC Ltd.
- We think the new rule would impact in the near short term but in long term we expect the NPA levels to normalize. Stable collection efficiency and provisions higher than regulatory requirements will help support the company to maintain a healthy Balance Sheet.
Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)
- The closing price of HDFC Ltd was ₹ 2,769/- as of 06-December-21. It traded at 4.2x/3.9x/3.5x the consensus BVPS estimate of ₹ 659/705/781 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
- The consensus target price of ₹ 3,251/- implies a PBV multiple of 4.2x on FY24E BVPS of ₹ 781/-.
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