Author - Rujuta Tamhankar

Behavioural Oversight

Anand Sridharan reminds investors that it is unfair to blame a fund manager for something that he/she doesn’t control (i.e. timing & quantum of flows in & out of fund). However, behaviour gap is real and hurts the average equity investor quite badly. Poor returns to the average investor are rooted in the following:

  1. Every investing strategy experiences (cleverly hidden) cycles
  2. Size is enemy of returns
  3. Substantial money tends to pile into a fund/strategy late in an upcycle
  4. Human nature and institutional (mis) behaviour exacerbate the above

Investing strategies witness headwinds & tailwindsOdds are that valuation will be a headwind over next 15 years. As a corollary, future returns will be worse than past. Only question is by how much. Without experiencing an inevitable downcycle for my approach, I cannot eliminate the possibility that I’m just a lucky idiot with a hot hand. Headwinds and tailwinds are often cleverly hidden and can only be deciphered with hindsight after an entire cycle. This is why the #1 criterion for judging an investor is longevity, not quantum, of outperformance. Decades, not years, are required to separate skill from luck.

Size is gravity for returns– Investing strategies don’t scale well, especially when inflows lead to step jumps in fund-size. Factors such as ability to build positions, liquidity, inefficiency or impact cost are very different at $ 1 billion AUM than at $100 million. The only peer-group at that size (pension & sovereign-wealth funds) has delivered single-digit long-term returns. Headlined time-weighted returns usually mix up big returns with small money followed by small returns with big money.

We’re suckers for extrapolating recency– Predictions of asset or commodity prices are severely biased by recent movements. Naturally, those selling funds for a commission pile onto this ride as it’s easier to palm off whatever’s hot. Everyone, fund managers included, starts believing in permanence of recent success. Topical nonsense (e.g. valuation doesn’t matter, this time is different) is extrapolated as timeless wisdom. Between misplaced expectations, inherent mean-reversion of any hot-hand strategy and size-effect, majority of inflows are set up for disappointment.

System doesn’t help investors’ cause one bit– Self-delusional fund managers on premature victory laps. Intermediaries’ mis-selling products with ridiculous return promises. Investors not learning from history. Media cheerleading instead of cautioning. Disregard for fundamentals/valuations being rationalized as new normal. What a fund manager does when one’s strategy stops working is the acid test of investing.

Anand Sridharan concludes that aforementioned factors aren’t independent and feed on each other in unknown ways. What can a retail investor in institutionally managed funds do? Ideally, stick to systematic investment in passive index funds.

Source: Buggy humans in a messy world by Anand Shridharan

Asset Multiplier comments:

  • It is difficult to distinguish the exact role of luck in successful trades or decisions, especially in the near term. As a result, performance of a stock or fund should be assessed over a longer period of time rather than the quantum of performance.
  • Humans are hardwired to place huge importance on recent occurrences than on earlier events. Just because a fund has a track record of outperformance does not guarantee that it will continue to outperform in the future.
  • When it comes to active funds, the only thing that can support an average investor is a suspicious, buyer-beware attitude.
  • One of the most significant impacts in stock markets is the behaviour gap, which is the difference between the rates of return that investments create when an investor makes rational choices and the rates of return that investors actually get when they make emotional judgments.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

The Truth about Investing 101

This is taken from a presentation by Howard Marks Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital. This is the first in a series of articles to follow. Mr. Marks makes concise and incisive comments about the art of investing that can help amateur and professional investors alike.

Superior results don’t come from buying high quality assets, but from buying assets – regardless of quality – for less than they’re worth.

Benjamin Graham emphasized that margin of safety means never paying too much for a stock. The margin of safety would act as a buffer for unanticipated negative occurrences impacting the investment choice. This is the fundamental premise of value investing; with margin of safety, investors may reduce downside risk, insulate themselves from mistakes, and earn remarkable returns. A thorough examination of the financial accounts can aid in the identification of alpha opportunities.

Investors would be wise to accept that they can’t see the macro future and restrict themselves to doing things that are within their power.

The macro future consists of market cycles; hence markets are bound to correct in the current scenario. People do not miss their financial goals as a result of market corrections but due to their own reaction to the market correction. What we can do as rational investors is invest in stocks of a company with a viable business model by learning about their businesses, industries, and the business, as well as the elements that influence the business. Controlling emotions can benefit in financial decisions; nevertheless, this is easier said than done. Fear of loss can induce investors to act impulsively, making poor investing selections.

One of the main reasons for the sultry predictions is the enormous influence of randomness.

The economy is a broad network of interrelated production and consumption activities that help determine how finite resources are allocated. It is difficult to foresee each and every interconnected action with certainty. The one thing we can be assured of is that the future is unpredictable. Most investors cannot predict the macroeconomic future better than anyone else. In an unpredictable market, time-tested investing tactics may fail, causing investors to lose money.

Once in a while someone receives widespread attention for having made a startlingly accurate forecast. It usually turns out to have been luck and thus can’t be repeated.

Analysts and major brokerages often forecast an index’s climb to historic highs, particularly during bull runs. However, such forecasts are usually attention grabbers that drive more traffic to the blog or website. Usually, it turns out to be a lucky coincidence. Investors must strive to distinguish between market noise and market information about their stock. A methodical, calculated approach to building a balanced portfolio that meets your goals is far superior to putting everything on the line for one call. Investing decisions should never be made only on the basis of a single source or perspective. Coffee-can investing is a tried-and-true approach that never fails: buy low, sell high.

Source: Howard Marks- Truth About investing.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

A walk in the park

The legendary US-based investor, Bill Miller, provided a list of worries in his latest 2021 third-quarter letter: “Today’s worries include, but are not limited to, China’s regulatory actions, high and rising fuel and food prices, labor shortages, inflation or stagflation, the effect of Federal Reserve tapering, disrupted supply chains, potential default due the debt limit standoff and the ongoing dis-function and polarization in Washington.”

What should investors be worrying about now?

A walk in the park :  There was once a lady who liked to walk her young dog each morning using a very long leash. Her dog was always easily excitable. It would dart all over the place. You could never guess where the dog would be from one minute to the next. But over the course of the two hour stroll, you can be certain that the dog is heading east at five kilometers per hour. What’s interesting here is that almost nobody is watching the lady. Instead, their eyes are fixed on the dog. If you missed the analogy, the dog represents stock prices while the lady represents the stocks’ underlying businesses.

Optimism: There are 7.9 billion people in the world today who will wake up every morning wanting to improve the world and our own lot in life – this is ultimately what fuels the global economy and financial markets. This is the lady, walking steadfastly ahead, holding her dog on a long leash. And this is ultimately what investors should be watching.

Source: The Good Investors

Asset Multiplier Comments: –

As minority shareholders, we participate without any control or influence on the operations of a company. We trust the management to adjust the business depending on the headwinds or tailwinds that they face. What we need to focus on is on identifying businesses which have great products or services, guarantee longevity of profits and sustainable growth, and have the ability to withstand shocks and cyclical downturns. Stocks prices may be volatile for any number of reasons. Investors should tune this noise out and focus on movement of the business as seen in quarterly results. Performance of the business will eventually be the driver of share price.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Expect double digit growth in the wind-energy business– Timken India

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY closed higher at 17,536 (+0.7%) led by REALTY (+2.0%), OIL & GAS (+1.9%), and HEALTHCARE (+1.6%), while AUTO (-0.5%), PSU BANK (-0.5%), and FINANCIAL SERVICES (-0.2%) ended lower. Among the Nifty50 components, RELIANCE (+6.4%), DIVISLAB (+2.4%), and ITC (+1.8%) ended higher, while MARUTI (-1.3%), BRITANNIA (-1.2%), and IOC (-1.1%) ended lower.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Sanjay Koul, MD, Timken India with CNBC TV-18 on 24th November 2021:

  • The business is continuing to recover, and they have seen strong 2QFY22 results, albeit on a low base.
  • Looking ahead, end user market demand in commercial vehicles or off highway raw materials is picking up, and the Indian government is going ahead with the infra push, and railways are back on track, all of which are very good signs for the company.
  • The export market is improving as a result of China’s current problems, and there is a strong demand for freight. Manufacturing plants are completely occupied.
  • The export market is picking up as problems in China are helping the business, good demand is seen on freight. Manufacturing plants are fully loaded.
  • There is strong demand across all categories. Commodity price inflation is an issue and the firm is in discussions with their B2B clients.
  • Commodity price hikes have been passed on to customers by the corporation. Revenue of Rs 20,000 mn is expected in FY22E. EBITDA margins will remain stable at 20-22 percent.
  • On a year-over-year basis, the company’s revenue in the wind-energy industry has been around Rs 1,000 mn. The company anticipates a double-digit growth rate in the business.
  • There are gear box manufacturers in India’s wind business. The gearbox market is rather healthy, and India has been looking for export potential. China’s wind market is down, and geo-political tensions with China provide India an advantage.
  • The company is in discussions with one of the top Indian companies intending to enter the wind-energy business.
  • Rail exports to Europe and North America are developing quite well, and they have begun to trickle into Russia, where they should gain traction in the future. During the epidemic, Indian passenger rails were shut down, but as the situation improves, more rail bearings are utilized. Rail exports have increased, although the global rail market remains subdued.
  • Orderbook contribution are around 22% rail, 22% heavy truck, 20% distribution, 35% exports, and the remainder is auto.
  • The company has been investing heavily in Barooch and Jamshedpur facilities in last 18 months. They have started making certain parts which used to be imported earlier.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Timken’s customers come from the defence, mining, aerospace, agricultural, rail, energy, and automotive industries. The company’s sales performance will improve as the Indian economy recovers.
  • The government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, which focuses on indigenous infrastructure development, has benefited industries ranging from defence to automotive, which includes some of Timken’s clients.

 

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and Tikr.com websites)

  • The closing price of TIMKEN was ₹ 1,925/- as of 25-November-2021.  It traded at 53x/ 41x/ 33x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 36.3/ 46.9/ 58.3 for FY22E/23E/24E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 1,757/- which implies a PE multiple of 31x the earnings estimate for FY24E of ₹ 56.8/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

Passive investing reaps richer rewards

Most mutual funds are run by people picking stocks or other investments that they think will earn above-average returns. Index funds, however, are passively managed. That is, they seek only to match (rather than beat) the performance of a given index. The goal of most actively managed funds is to earn a return greater than that of their respective indexes. Interestingly, most investors actually would be better off in index funds. Why? Due to the high costs of active management, the majority of actively managed funds fail to outperform their respective indexes.

Picking funds based on superior past performance was usually unsuccessful and proved to be only slightly better than picking randomly. If you’re looking to pick a future top performer, picking a low-cost fund is your best bet. And looking for low-cost funds naturally leads to the selection of index funds as likely top-performers.

Why Index Funds Win:  Because all the fund has to do is buy all of the stocks (or other investments) that are included in the index. When you compare such a strategy to the strategies followed by actively managed funds (which generally require an assortment of ongoing research and analysis, in order to try to buy and sell the right investments at the right times) index funds tend to have considerably lower costs than actively managed funds. It’s counterintuitive to think that by not attempting to outperform the market, an investor can actually come out above average.

A strategy for picking funds would be as follows:

  1. Determine your ideal overall asset allocation (that is, how much of your overall portfolio you want invested in Indian stocks, how much in international stocks, and how much in bonds).
  2. Determine which of your fund options could be used for each piece of your asset allocation.
  3. Among those funds, choose the ones with the lowest expense ratios and the lowest portfolio turnover.

Source: Oblivious Investor

AM Comments-

  • Passive investing is polar opposite of active investing, which is a more aggressive strategy offering possibility of larger short-term gains, but also accompanied by higher risk and volatility.
  • Passive investing may be laissez-faire. It’s a well-thought, long standing philosophy which believes that even though the stock market does experience ups and downs, it inevitably rises over the long periods.
  • The concept underlying passive investing is that the longer-term outlook on markets is bullish, which will result in financial gains along the course. As a result, it is better suited to investors with a longer time horizon, such as retirement planning.
  • One of the primary reasons for the success of passive funds is their low cost. Fees for index funds in India are normally in the range of 0.1-0.2 percent of AUM, while fees for actively managed funds can range from 1-1.5 percent of AUM.

Passive investing is gaining traction in India as a result of greater mutual fund penetration and accessibility, which is no longer a barrier thanks to the availability of various online platforms.

 

Aluminum Prices continue to increase impacting margins in 2QFY22  – Endurance Technologies

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed in the red at 17,898 (-0.05%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were ASIANPAINT (+2.4%), MARUTI (+2.4%), and SBILIFE (+2.4%). The top losers were UPL (-3.2%), RELIANCE (-2.2%), and CIPLA (-2.1%). Top sectoral gainers were AUTO (+0.7%), MEDIA (+0.4%), and HEALTHCARE (+0.3%) and sectoral losers were REALTY (-1.6%), OIL & GAS (-1.5%), and PHARMA (-1.3%).

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Ramesh Gehaney, Director and COO– Endurance Technologies with CNBC -TV18 dated 16th November 2021:

  • On the European side, the semi-conductor shortage continues to hit production. The company anticipates that 3QFY22E will be stronger due to a perceived improvement in the semi-conductor chip situation.
  • However, there are further obstacles, such as a greater shift from traditional petrol and diesel cars to EVs and hybrid vehicles, which will need the use of more semi-conductors. The number of new automobile registrations in Europe and the United Kingdom is down by 22 to 23 per cent.
  • In terms of Malaysian chip production, the company believes that the allocation of semiconductor chips to the sector has grown, albeit the situation may not improve until the end of FY22.
  • The firm is actively engaging with OEMs and EV players and has obtained orders from Ather and Bajaj Auto, as well as being in active discussions with all of them. In Europe, they secured orders of Rs 110 mn on electric vehicle platforms and hybrid goods, accounting for 50% of 2QFY22 sales.
  • The current impact on margins is primarily due to a rise in commodity prices. Aluminium can price up to 50 Rs per kg, a 42 per cent increase over the current price. Steel prices were similarly high, but they are gradually levelling off. However, the company anticipates that the raw material situation will improve from present levels as steel prices stabilise.
  • Going Forward, margins numerically would be under pressure. But the company’s profit has increased by 55%.
  • Assuming the aluminium prices remain elevated, the impact on margins would be around 3.7% in FY22 and FY23. If the impact of higher material prices is removed, Endurance has maintained its EBITDA margin of 17%.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • 2QFY22 performance was impacted by raw material cost inflation and semi-conductor shortage.
  • We expect the share of EV/Hybrid technology to increase in the near future as the demand in Europe shifts towards less polluting vehicles to reduce carbon footprint as they have bagged a brake system order of RS 500 mn from Ather.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Endurance Tech was ₹ 1,759/- as of 17-November-2021.  It traded at 39x/ 27x/ 23x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 45/ 65/76 for FY21E/22E/23E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 1,893/- which trades at 28x the earnings estimate for FY23E of ₹ 61/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

Must ignore the siren song to enjoy the Melody

 

Joe Wiggins stresses on correct behavioral commitments for long term investors by citing example of Homer’s Odyssey. Ulysses and his crew must navigate their ship past the sirens. The sirens produce a beguiling and irresistible song, which if heard would lead the men to their deaths. Ulysses applies some behavioral science. He instructs his crew to fill their ears with wax to avoid temptation and has himself tied to the mast to avoid action.

Most of us have long-term objectives best facilitated by doing less, yet the constant noise and narratives of markets are there to lure us into frequent injudicious decisions.

Being a long-term, low action investor is the easiest approach to adopt in theory, but the hardest in practice.

 

How do we make a commitment like Ulysses to protect us from our future investing selves? Plugging our ears means ignoring the chaotic vacillations of markets and the unpredictable path of the economy. Rarely checking our valuations, cutting off our subscriptions to financial news. Cancelling the brokerage account, losing the password for our portfolios, or adding elements of friction to slow an investment decision-making process. Avoiding anything that will entice us away from our plan.

Commitment devices do not have to be entirely restrictive. We might commit to acting only when certain extreme valuation levels are reached. This approach is obviously imperfect compared to an avoidance pact. Setting a high threshold for action, however, at least protects from the worst ravages of noise and overtrading.

A critical part of managing our behavior is understanding the challenges we will face and planning in advance how we will mitigate them. Good investment is primarily about making sensible decisions at the start and avoiding bad decisions on the journey. The problem is that the compulsion to veer off course is likely to be overwhelming.
Most of us want to be long-term investors, but unless we make the right behavioral commitments at the outset the siren song of financial markets will make that an impossible aspiration.

 

Source: Behavioral Investment by Joe Wiggins

Asset multiplier comments-

  • Obsession with short-term market fluctuations makes sense only for day traders who earn money by accumulating minor gains and limiting losses in as many securities as possible.
  • For investors with a long-term perspective, it is meaningless to analyze each and every event and its implications on your portfolio.
  • Investors should understand clearly that volatility and risk are two different things. Reacting to volatility created by market news will only yield bad decisions i.e., buying at a higher price or selling too low.

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Expect Revenues to go up due to easing travel restrictions – VIP Industries

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY closed at 18,068 (+0.9%) led by PSU BANK (+2.2%), CONSUMER DURABLES (+2.1%), and OIL&GAS (+1.8%). Those in red were PRIVATE BANK (-1.0%), PHARMA (-0.7%) and HEALTHCARE (-0.6%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were TITAN (+4.5%), IOC (+4.5%), and BAJAJFINS (+4.2%). The top losers were INDUSIND BANK (-10.5%), DIVIS LAB (-5.2%), and M&M (-1.4%).

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Dilip Piramal, Chairman, VIP Industries with CNBC-TV18 on 02nd November 2021:

  • The company had a sales budget of Rs 5000 mn in the 1QFY22. However, 1QFY22 performed poorly due to the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic but things improved in September due to the opening up of restrictions.
  • During the first 15 months of the pandemic, there were hardly any sales, hence the company did not import from China. In 1QFY21 company had more inventory than what they sold in FY20.
  • Supply has been disrupted very badly, till pre covid levels the company was dependant on China heavily. The Chinese supply has become very uncertain and expensive and hence the company is facing a lot of issues concerning supply in the market. It intends to reduce its dependence on China for raw materials.
  • There is a lot of turbulence in the market from the supply side due to higher freight costs and inflation, problems with imports of, both, raw materials and finished goods from China.
  • Freight costs have gone up, which affects the company significantly as luggage being a voluminous product, freight is a considerable cost.
  • Usually, the 3rd quarter is the best quarter for the company with the wedding and travel season in full swing. With the gradual opening up of economies and travel, the company expects good revenues going forward.
  • The company is positive and expects 3QFY22E will be better than the 3QFY21. The company expects revenue to be in the range of -10% to +10% from the 3QFY19 levels which is Rs 4,300mn.
  • The company hasn’t taken any price hikes as of now but they would be looking at taking price hikes very shortly. Revenues on an MoM basis should be better than in earlier months.
  • All the manufacturing of the hard luggage which accounts for 47% of the 2QFY22 revenue is done in India. Not too much manufacturing in India for soft luggage.
  • Mass and premium segment bags were affected since a majority of sales occurred in the malls and malls were badly affected in the pandemic.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • The Ministry of Civil Aviation removed restrictions on domestic flight capacity and allowed to operate flights at full capacity. Luggage being the proxy to the travel and tourism industry we think VIP Industries is well placed to meet the increasing demand.
  • Looking at the capex plans of expanding the capacity of Bangladesh and Nashik plants, price hikes, margins delivery, and product launches we expect VIP Industries to perform well going ahead.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)  

  • The closing price of VIP Industries was ₹ 634/- as of 08-November-21. It traded at 111x/50x/37x the eps estimate of ₹ 5.7/12.6/17.1 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 646/- implies a Price/earnings multiple of 33x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 19.6/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Death by Cigarettes

 

Nick Maggiulli writes on his blog that there are two kinds of risks in investing and in life—fast risk and slow risk. Fast risk is the stuff that makes headlines. It’s the things that we are warned about every day. The reason for this is simple—the consequences of fast risk are immediate and usually devastating. But then there’s slow risk. Slow risk is the accumulation of bad decisions that eventually leads to an unwanted outcome.

Slow risk doesn’t make headlines. Every time a hedge fund blows up you will probably hear about it. But you never hear about the person who sat in cash for 20 years because they were too afraid to get invested. Both are equally devastating, but one seems less spectacular than the other.

The simplest analogy to differentiate between fast risk and slow risk is heroin vs. cigarettes. Heroin is fast risk. Cigarettes are slow risk. Heroin tends to kill people quickly (especially in the event of an overdose), while cigarettes tend to kill people slowly.

Unfortunately, most of the time when people talk about risk, they are talking about fast risk. For example, stocks have lots of fast risk, but little slow risk. The S&P 500 could drop 20% tomorrow, but 30 years from now it’s likely to be much higher than it is today. On the other hand, cash has lots of slow risk, but little fast risk. Next year your dollar should be worth about the same as it is worth today. But 30 years from now? Not so much.

As your time horizon increases the risk of losing money in stocks decreases and the risk of losing money in cash increases. As Peter L. Bernstein noted in Against the Gods: Risk and time are opposite sides of the same coin, for if there were no tomorrow there would be no risk. This is why cash isn’t really a risk-free asset but more of a fast risk-free asset. Cash still has plenty of risk, but it is of the slow variety.

Source: dollarsanddata

Asset Multiplier Comments:

  • Even little amounts, if correctly invested, may build up to a lot of money over a young investor’s time horizon. In financial markets, consistency is essential, and never underestimate the power of compounding.
  • Every asset, whether debt, equities, hard cash, or art, carries a different degree of risk, but then so are the returns! Diversifying your portfolio will give you the required edge over the broader market while reducing the total risk of your portfolio.
  • The risk in a portfolio of diverse individual stocks and assets will be less than the risk in holding any one of the individual stock or an asset, given that the risks of the various assets are not directly related. A portfolio that contains both assets will pay off most of the times, regardless of market conditions. Adding one risky asset to another can reduce the overall risk of an all-weather portfolio. It’s all about choosing the right combination of stocks among which to distribute one’s nest egg.
  • Calculated investments, even in risky assets, may be better than haphazardly investing in debt funds.

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

This Week in a nutshell (25th Oct to 29th Oct)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 25th October at 18,299 and closed on 29th October at 17671 during the week, the index lost 2.5%. Nifty is trading at an RSI of 43, with support at 17,565 and resistance at 18,158.

Among sectors top losers were Nifty Private bank (-3.6%), BANK (-3.0%), and IT (-2.8%). PSU Bank (+0.1%) was the only sectoral gainer in the week.

Weekly highlights

  • This week was a tumultuous one for stock prices as they reacted to this week’s results.
  • China’s Evergrande Group has stated plans to prioritise the expansion of its electric car sector over the main real estate businesses. Evergrande chairman Hui Ka Yan stated that the company’s new electric car initiative will be its major business, rather than real estate, during the next ten years.
  • The third-quarter earnings season resumed with results from US IT behemoths Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Google. Companies are indicating increased labor costs and operational disruptions impacting earnings.
  • The US budget deficit for 2021 totaled USD 2.77 trillion, the second biggest on record but a decrease from the all-time high of USD 3.13 trillion in 2020. Both years’ deficits represent trillions of dollars in government expenditure to mitigate the terrible effects of a worldwide epidemic.
  • Profits at China’s industrial firms rose at a faster pace in September even as surging raw material prices and supply bottlenecks squeezed margins and weighed on factory activity.
  • According to a CRISIL Ratings analysis of India’s top three PV original equipment makers (OEMs or vehicle makers) with a combined market share of 71%, a global shortage of semiconductors will moderate India’s passenger vehicle (PV) sales to 11-13 percent this fiscal, around 400-600 basis points (bps) lower than what could have been without the scarcity.
  • Last week, the number of Americans asking for unemployment benefits fell to a pandemic low of 281,000, indicating that the labour market and economy are still recovering from last year’s coronavirus slump.
  • Indian equities were downgraded this week by major foreign brokerages- Morgan Stanley, UBS, Nomura.
  • The foreign institutional investors (FII) continued selling Indian equities and sold shares worth Rs 1,57,023 mn. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers this week and bought equities worth of Rs 94,272mn.

 

Things to watch out for next week:

  • US Fed tapering expected, with an increase in interest rates. The central bank is largely anticipated to declare that it will begin unwinding its $120 bn monthly bond purchases, with the scheme expected to end entirely by the middle of FY23.
  • Several earnings reports are expected next week  including those from pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer and Moderna in the US. In India, companies such as HDFC, Tata Motors, and Sun Pharma are set to announce earnings.
  • The next week will be a truncated one for Indian equity markets due to Diwali. 

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”