The Week in a nutshell (30th March-1st April)

Technical Talks

NIFTY opened the week on 30 th March at 14,628 and closed on 1 st April at 14,867, a weekly
gain of 1.6%. On the upside, 15,536 could be a resistance to watch for. On the downside,
100 DMA of 14,139 might act as a support. RSI on the uptrend at 52 and reducing negativity
in MACD indicates that the market might see some uptrend in the coming days.

Weekly highlights

● The government has approved a Rs 109 bn production-linked incentive scheme for the food
processing industry (PTI). The scheme will attract investments from global and domestic
companies in the food processing sector.
● GST collections rose 27% to hit a record high of nearly Rs 1,240 bn in March, helping to
narrow the deficit for the full financial year to ~7%. Revenue from imported goods jumped
70%, while those from domestic transactions, including services imports, were 17% higher
than the corresponding periods of 2020. Economic activities are picking up which will be
positive for economy linked stocks.
● A sharp recovery in the US dollar, hints of a strong global economic outlook, and a surge in
US treasury yields continue to hit the safe investment demand and thus the price of gold.
The Gold futures have fallen from a high of US $ 1962 to the US $ 1730 on April 1. A
possible physical demand recovery due to the upcoming marriage season in India and China
can attract fresh buyers.
● OPEC+ agreed on Thursday to gradually ease its oil output cuts from May. The new U.S.
administration called on Saudi Arabia to keep energy affordable, mirroring Donald Trump's
practice of calling OPEC's leader over oil policy.
● Auto volumes for the month of March-21 were reported. Companies have been talking of
the supply chain being impacted due to the global chip shortage issue. Despite the supply
chain issues, most companies reported good performance. Maruti and Tata Motors reported
2% and 15% MoM growth. NIFTY AUTO witnessed a gain of 1.6% on Thursday.
● Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in Indian equity of Rs 26,044 mn,
against net selling of Rs 67,013 mn in the previous week. Domestic Institutional Investors
(DIIs) continued to be net buyers of Rs 39,660 mn, lower than last week’s buying of Rs
50,181 mn.

Things to watch out
● RBI Monetary Policy Committee to announce the new policy on 7 April. No interest rate
changes are expected in this meeting too. After a cumulative reduction of 115 bps in the
policy repo rate to 4.00 per cent in two of the out-of-cycle meetings held in March 2020 and
May 2020, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged in the
subsequent policy reviews. Since the last policy review, the CPI inflation has risen from a low
of 4.1 per cent in January 2021, to a sharper-than-expected 5.0 per cent in February 2021.
Consensus expects no changes in interest rates.
● Due to the everyday rise in covid cases, the Government is planning a weekend lockdown in
Maharashtra and planning to close restaurants, Malls, parks etc. How the market reacts to
these rising cases in the country will be the key thing to watch out for.