Consumer durable

Business at 85-90% of pre-COVID levels – Amber Enterprise

Update on Indian equity market:
Indian markets were slightly higher today with Nifty closing the day 57 points higher at 11,954. Within the index, the gainers were led by POWERGRID (4.2%), BHARTIARTL (3.5%) and TATASTEEL (3.1%) whereas BRITANNIA (-4.3%), TCS (-2.3%) and SBILIFE (-1.9%) were the laggards. Among the sectoral indices, REALTY (4.7%) METAL (2.4%) and BANK (1.6%) led the index higher whereas FMCG (-0.9%), MEDIA (-0.5%) and IT (-0.4%) led the laggards.
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Jasbir Singh, Chairman & CEO, Amber Enterprise Ltd (Amber) published on CNBC-TV18 dated 19th October 2020:
The recent notification by the central government to ban the import of ACs with refrigerants would increase local manufacturing. 30% of ACs worth Rs 40,000 mn were imported in India in FY20. 75% of this had refrigerants. The company is eyeing the majority share from this opportunity.
The decision of the government will shift the complete manufacturing of all the imported goods to India and the company will benefit as they have the capacities in place.
India currently produces 7mn RACs (Refrigeration & Air Conditioning) whereas China produces 110 mn RACs.
The business is back on track and the industry is back to 85-90% of pre-COVID levels on a month on month basis.
The company has won some orders from Metro and Railways which are moving normally. The company expects some more orders in the recent future.
He said that pent demand during the months of lockdown resulted in increased manufacturing orders by OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers)
The company recently bought the remaining 20% stake in Sidwal Refrigeration Industries. Accordingly, Sidwal is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amber. The company expects a 15% growth from Sidwal acquisition in FY21E.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)
The closing price of Amber was ₹ 2,307/- as of 21-Oct-2020. It traded at 96x/ 35x/ 26x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 24/ 66/ 90 for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
The consensus target price of ₹ 2,050/- implies a P/E multiple of 23x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 90.
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Lost 60 days of sales which is 50-60% of the business during summer – Voltas

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Monday, NIFTY closed in the red at 11,387 (-2.2%). The top gainers in NIFTY50 were ONGC (+1.6%) and TCS (+0.6%). The top losers were Sun Pharma (-7.3%), SBI (-5.9%), and Cipla (-5.5%). The top sectoral losers were MEDIA (-5.8%), PSU BANKS (-4.7%), and PHARMA (-4.6%) and there were no sectoral gainers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr Pradeep Bakshi, MD and CEO of the Tata Group AC Company, with CNBC TV18 dated 28th August 2020:
● Generally summer months starting from March till June accounts for more than 50% of the sales in the compressor products like the air-conditioner products. Unfortunately, due to the lockdown, right from March 20 onwards until May 20, they lost out nearly 60 days of sales.
● Out of three and a half months, they lost out two months that is somewhere around 50-60% of the business was lost for the industry during these summers because of the lockdown.
● Voltas has done better than the industry while highlighting that most brands haven’t registered growth.
● During this period, the industry has been able to sell the products but most of the brands have not registered growth. However, Voltas’ business, they have done decent numbers during this period.
● In terms of volume, revenue and profitability they are way ahead of the competition and the industry.
● The industry as a whole has not been able to do a great job during Q1. Until July, August also, they have been doing sales, some numbers are clicking but there is a large pile-up of inventory in the industry.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and websites)
● The closing price of Voltas was ₹ 635/- as of 31-August-2020. It traded at 48x/ 30x/ 27x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 13.2/ 20.9/ 23.9 for FY21E/22E/FY23E respectively.
● The consensus price target is ₹ 659/- which trades at 28x the earnings estimate for FY23E of ₹ 23.9/-
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

A tremendous shift to mindful shopping seen – Havells India

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, Nifty50 ended 0.7% higher at 11,215 after reports citing India and the US are close to inking a trade deal. EICHERMOT (+4.9), ICICIBANK (+3.6%), and RELIANCE (+3.6%) topped the gainers. AXISBANK (-3.8%), SHREECEM (-1.9%), and HINDUNILVR (-1.4%) led the laggards. PHARMA (+1.4%), REALTY (+1.4%), and AUTO (+1.4%) led the sectoral gainers while IT (-0.2%) was the only sector to end the day in the red.

The buying pattern of consumers has undergone a transformation since the pandemic started and businesses have had to device new strategies to get consumers back. Mr. Ravindra Singh Negi, President, ECD (Electrical Consumer Durables), Havells India talked about the company’s online to offline model with Economic Times.

Here are the edited excerpts of the interview published on 22nd July 2020:

  • The online to offline program combines technology and execution at the local level. This model provides a solution to customers worried about going out and partners concerned about sales. Products can be selected, and payment made online and delivery is made at a fast pace by local channels.
  • The launch of the beta version of the program led to a 4 times surge in the average monthly revenue generated by the e-store. The response led to the program being rolled out across the country in June, except for in Kolkata and Maharashtra.
  • Cognizant of the potential of digital power, Havells has made the swift movement to online sales and invested in the e-store for the brand at large. The hybrid model will be integral to business recovery as it aims to remove customers’ hesitance to go and shop offline due to health and safety concerns.
  • There has been a profound impact of the Covid-19 on the business due to the dependence on domestic consumption. April was a washout and May witnessed little recovery. June was better than the previous two months with a considerable contribution from smaller towns and semi-urban geographies. Although semi-urban and rural are almost back to normal, urban centers will take a while to get back on track.
  • Customer behavior has settled into the new normal significantly and there has been a tremendous shift to mindful shopping. There has been an uptake of domestic appliances such as air fryers, mixers, juicers, and blenders as these seem to invade the essentials category.
  • With the spas and salons shut for a long time, the grooming products too are high on the consumers’ shopping list. Beard trimmers sale has seen a spike of 5x.
  • Consumers are going to look at buying safe and quality products with superior after-sale service, which adds brand recall and loyalty. During the lockdown, more than half of their service issues were solved digitally through video calls or through do-it-yourself videos on their social media channels, which was appreciated by consumers.
  • The pandemic has revamped the business structure altogether. The focus remains on ramping up Make in India capabilities to offer better quality products to customers.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Havells India was ₹ 608/- as of 23-July-2020. It traded at 68x/ 42x/ 38x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 8.9/14.4/16.2 per share for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 547/- implies a PE multiple of 34x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 16.2/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”


AC sales likely to decline 30% in 2020- says Blue Star’s B Thiagarajan

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY closed in the green at 9,187 (+2.3%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were ZEEL (+20.0%), Reliance (+9.8%) and Asian Paints (+5.2%). The top losers were ONGC (-5.2%), VEDL (-2.5%) and L&T (-1.7%). Top sectoral gainers were Media (+6.5%), Auto (+2.5%) and FMCG (+2.5%) and sectoral losers were Realty (-0.8%) and PSU Banks (-0.1%).
Excerpts of an interview with Mr. B Thiagarajan, MD, Blue Star Ltd with CNBC -TV18 dated 22nd April 2020:

  • He expects a big decline in the AC segment as he thinks the upcoming summer is going to a tough one.
  • He said things are tough and the industry will de-grow by at least 30 per cent compared to the previous year.
  • About 45 days ago they were worried whether they will lose sales during the summer season. But things have entirely changed. He thinks they can still salvage the situation by attempting to sell in the month of May and June.
  • Room air conditioners are not going to impact the health of the people. Central air conditioning – there are certain solutions which will make people comfortably use the central air conditioning system.
  • On the lower end kind of consumer durable products, he feels, the recovery is going to be faster.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and websites)

  • The closing price of Blue Star Ltd was ₹ 565/- as of 22-April-2020.  It traded at 26x/ 22x/ 19x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 21.9/ 25.9 /30.4 for FY20E/21E/22E respectively.
  • The consensus price target of Blue Star Ltd is ₹ 779/- which trades at 26x the earning estimate of ₹4/-

Blue Star- The demand in the festival season is expected to grow 12% YoY in FY20

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY was up 1.07% to close at 11,586 level. The top performers in the index were yes bank (+15.47%), Tata motors (+13.27%) and Eicher Motors (+7.96%). HCL tech (-1.06%), VEDL (-0.97%) and Grasim (-0.59%) were the worst performing NIFTY stocks. Among the sectorial indices, NIFTY Auto (+3.13%), NIFTY PSU Banks (+3.0%) and NIFTY PVT Bank (+1.71%) were the top gainers. NIFTY IT (-0.41%) was the only negative performing index today as all the other indices were in green.

Excerpts of an interview with B. Thiagarajan, managing director, Blue Star (From Livemint dated 17/10/2019)

  • According to Mr. Thiagrajan, the festival season has been good.   Summer season has been great. Starting with Onam, the Dussehra season and now leading up to Diwali the consumption seems to be good and they are doing better than the market.
  • They are launching new TV commercial, print and digital campaigns in an orbit-shifting move. It is because the market is doing well.
  • They have engaged Virat Kohli and it is a new orbit-shifting move as far as Blue Star is concerned.
  • Advertising expesnes will be somewhere around 12% over last year in value terms. Considering the entire festival season up to New Year perhaps starting from Onam. So far that figure is holding good.
  • They would like to grow faster than the market. If the market is growing by 12%, they would aim to have 17% growth in the festival season. He expects between 10-12% market growth, anywhere between 15-17% Blue Star growth. This is in terms of room air conditioners.
  • In air conditioners the penetration levels are around 6%, there are many first-time buyers, low-end products are getting sold, and consumer finance is at an all-time high.
  • 90% energy consumption reduction has been achieved in AC. So it is no longer viewed as an energy guzzling device. Altogether, the monsoon season has ended well. Though there will be some delayed crops, he thinks agriculture income will be good.
  • Therefore tier-3-4-5 markets also should be doing well. This prompts him to say that anywhere between 10% and 12% growth should be taking place in the market.
  • Association with Virat will be for 14 months. Just like Virat is good in T20, one day and test cricket, Blue Star is a player in corporate commercial; light commercial like shop, showroom, and boutiques and residential. They need the mass connect because tier-3-4-5 towns are doing well. They are proud of that association.
  • They will spend around ₹550 mn out of the revenue target in this association. In terms of percentage of ad expenses to revenue it is not going to make a difference because they are growing and this association is going to bring more sales, they are excited about this.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The stock price was ₹ 826/- as of close of 17-10-19 and traded at 39x/ 29x/ 23x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E EPS of ₹ 23.1 /28.3 /36.1 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 805/- implies a PE multiple of 22x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 36.1/-.

Blue Star Limited (BLUESTARCO): Will use the extra money from corporate tax cut in capital expenses

Update on the Indian Market:

On Friday, Market was more or less flat. Nifty closed 0.5% lower at Rs 11,512. Bharti Airtel (+2.89%), Bajaj Finance (+1.61%), ITC (1.36%) were among the biggest gainers. IndusInd bank (-4.92%), Yes bank (-5.0%), Vedanta (-5.69%) were the losers. Among the sectoral indices Pharma (-2.06%), Realty (-2.28%), Metal (-2.84) closed lower while there were no gainers.

Excerpts from the interview by Mr. B Thiagarajan, MD – Blue Star

  • Effective tax rate was 32% in FY19 and would have been ~ 31% in FY20. So, setting aside certain concessions they will forego if they move to this regime, they should be gaining around 4.5 percent and 5 percent in terms of EPS.
  • They will pump in this extra money into the capital expenses. They have been on an indigenization mode and they will accelerate indigenization or reduce in-China dependency.
  • In FY20, they are looking at indigenizing deep freezers. So ~ Rs 120 cr is being invested in Vada in Maharashtra. Sri City plant which they had acquired the land there, they would have looked at FY22-23, they may end up accelerating that because the room air conditioner market continues to be good.
  • Plastic injection moulding, compressor manufacturing industry will benefit due to indigenization drive.
  • They will accelerate the capital investment there. So the entire Sri City plant should get frozen sometime in January-February 2020.
  • Unlike many other durables, air conditioners have been witnessing and even during Onam season they witnessed good growth. He thinks that will further grow.
  • The Onam season is an indication because there were floods. He thought Onam season will be a washout, the markets are priced close to around 40% growth over last year, but last year also there were floods. The year before there was around 12% growth.
  • Going forward, the festival season should be ~ 12-15% growth. Having said that, the demand is for lower-end products and 40% of the sales have been through consumer finance schemes.
  • According to him, there is no room for more discounts because the dollar has moved up. They have to keep a close watch on the exchange rates because copper and quite a few components still get imported.
  • The competition is stiff and the reach is becoming very complex; with 65% of the market for them are tier III, tier IV, and tier V.
  • To reach out, they have to pump up the advertising expenses. So, there won’t be price dilution. He expects that they would maintain last year margin levels and marginally improve that.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of BLUESTARCO was ₹ 794/- as of 27-September-19. It traded at 34x / 28x / 22x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 23.1 / 28.3 / 36.1 respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 792/- implies a PE multiple of 22x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 36.1/-

VIP Industries Ltd – Weak Yuan positive for VIP

Dated : 4th Sept 2019

Update on Indian market:

Domestic equity indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell over 2 percent on Tuesday. NSE Nifty ended at 10,798, down 225 points or 2.04 %. Market sentiment got impacted due to subdued auto numbers and a set of macroeconomic data like GDP data showing the country’s growth rate slumped for the fifth straight quarter to hit an over six-year low of 5 %. Growth of eight core industries dropped to 2.1 percent in July, mainly due to a contraction in coal, crude oil, and natural gas production. PMI data showed the country’s manufacturing sector activity declined to its 15-month low in August. The IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 51.4 in August, its lowest mark since May 2018, from 52.5 in July. The Indian Rupee fell by 64 paise to reach 72 mark against the US dollar and sustained outflows by foreign portfolio investors (FPI). Gainers among Nifty50 stocks were Tech M (1.4%) and HCL Tech (0.5%) while the losers were Tata Steel (-4.5%), Ultratech and ICICI Bank(-4.4%).  

VIP Industries Ltd – Weak Yuan positive for VIP

Key highlights of the Interview by Mr. Dilip G Piramal, Chairman of VIP Industries on CNBC TV18

VIP Industries is into manufacturing of luggage and travel accessories and imports less than 50% of the raw material from China. The Chairman of the company in the recent interview stated that a weakening yuan helps.

He also mentioned that:

1.    August and September traditionally weakest months of the year.

2.    Luggage is a narrow segment with limited players, so they don’t see contract manufacturing or single-brand retail having a significant impact on competition.

3.    Weakening of Rupee will benefit as VIP is also getting into exports gradually.

4.      Demand has not picked up yet, VIP Ind is in wait & watch mode. No plans for price cuts to propel demand.

5.      Due to China-US trade war Chinese manufacturers have become more dependent on India which benefits the company to get better schemes and offers from them.

6.      100% Foreign Direct Investment in contract manufacturing will improve the Indian economy gradually and in 5-10 years a lot of the low-end manufacturing from China will move to India because India is a country with a very large population. A lot of the manufacturing is moving already from China to Vietnam, Cambodia but these countries do not have so much of the population. There are so many large industries at the lower-end, readymade garments being the largest and all other consumer goods industries like shoes, toys, everything else will move out of China gradually.

Consensus estimates (Marketscreener website):

·       The stock price was Rs 422/- as of close price of 3rd September 2019 and trades at P/E multiple of 36x / 29x the consensus EPS of Rs 12.2/ 15.0 for FY20E /21E respectively. 

·       Consensus target price is Rs 500/- implying P/E of 33x for FY21E EPS of Rs 15.0/-

Amazon deal not just for funds; it’s to share payment ecosystem: Future Group Founder Kishore Biyani

Dated: 29th August 2019

Updates on Indian Market:

On Wednesday, BSE benchmark Sensex plunged over 300 points intraday, but recovered to settle at 37,452, down  0.50%, while the Nifty closed below the 11,050-mark led by a rebound in HDFC and gains in IT stocks. Yes Bank, Tata Steel shares emerged among the biggest losers, slumping up to 7%. Concerns over the state of the Indian economy stayed as analysts believe government’s dole-outs may not do much to prop up demand.

Amazon deal not just for funds; it’s to share payment ecosystem: Future Group Founder Kishore Biyani

Global E-Commerce giant Amazon acquired a 49% stake in Future Group’s Future Coupons, with an option to acquire the entire stake later. Future Coupons Limited is engaged in developing innovative value-added payment products and solutions such as corporate gift cards, loyalty cards, and reward cards primarily for corporate and institutional customers. Future Coupons currently does not own a stake in Future Retail but recently subscribed to convertible warrants for Rs 20 bn.

According to the founder of Future Group – Kishore Biyani, the deal is not just to raise money but also to become a part of the payment ecosystem. The deal is basically aimed at enhancing the payments portfolio of both companies.

Mr Biyani mentioned that they have a database of 8 bn transactions and 55 mn customers. Payments are one platform where they can acquire the customer base and if the customer starts using your payment mechanism then loyalty increases. So it’s about getting into the ecosystem. Meanwhile, Amazon had also emphasized the same saying that the tie-up between the two will enhance Amazon’s existing portfolio of investments in the payments landscape in India.

Food distribution centres: Mr Biyani also stated that the company has embarked on Rs 10 bn investment plan to create distribution centres for its food-on-demand venture. The group’s supply chain company, Future Supply Solutions plan to set up about 38 such centres. Named India Food Grid, the project will connect the entire country through a single, multi-layer network.

Media reports that Future Coupons, owned by Future Group promoter Biyani, holds 39.6 million warrants in Future Retail, which when exercised, will convert into a 7.3% stake in the company. Future Coupons said the stake will be acquired for about Rs 20 bn through warrants in February. The first tranche of Rs 5bn was issued in April. Amazon is paying the remaining amount of Rs 15 bn to get 3.5% stake in Future Retail, said officials aware of the development. This translates into Amazon valuing Future Retail at more than double its current market capitalisation of about Rs 210 bn  

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

Future Retail stock price was Rs 391/- as of close price of 28-08-19 and traded at 45x /37x /28x the consensus EPS for FY20E / 21E / 22E EPS of Rs 17/17.8/19.5 respectively. Consensus target price is Rs 533/- implying PE of 27x for FY22E EPS of Rs 19.5.

Bluestar (BLSTR): Company takes a cautious approach in the troubled times

Dated:- 22nd August 2019

Update on the Indian market:

In the past few days, all eyes are towards the government, expecting to announce stimulus measures for the economy to rekindle the risk appetite of investors. The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian’s comments reduced such a possibility, leading to a sell-off in the markets. NIFTY fell by 1.6%. Amongst the NSE 50, worst performers were Yes Bank (-12.2%), Vedanta Limited (-7.6%), Bajaj Finance Ltd (-5.2%) and Indiabulls Housing Finance Limited (-5.2%). While the best performers were Britannia (+1.7%) and Tech Mahindra (+1.5%). In the sectoral indices, the realty sector was the worst performer (-6.7%); followed by Metal (-3.6%), PSU Bank (-3.6%).

Bluestar (BLSTR): Company takes a cautious approach in the troubled times

In an interview on CNBC-TV18 on 21st August 2019, Bluestar MD, Mr B Thiagarajan talked about industry scenario. Key highlights are below:

·       The performance of the Electro-Mechanical Projects and Packaged Air Conditioning Systems (EMP) was a conscious decision made by the management. The order inflows from across the segments remain healthy. BLSTR reported 34% YoY increase in the order book at ~Rs 28,410 mn.  BLSTR delayed the order execution with the focus on controlling working capital.

·       BLSTR reported ~9% YoY growth in 1QFY20 in the Unitary Products segment revenues. The Room Air Conditioners (RAC) revenues grew by ~25% YoY while the commercial refrigeration product revenues de-grew by ~22% YoY. The decline in the commercial refrigeration products sale was a result of efforts for migration to a new technology product range. The commercial refrigeration product sales peaked in 4QFY19 and were muted in 1QFY20. BLSTR is seeing improved demand in 2QFY20.

·       ~40% of the air conditioner sales are through consumer finance schemes. The payback period is ~10 months and currently, no repayment issues have been noticed. BLSTR deals through financers like Bajaj Finance.  The demand is higher for the lower end products.

·       The floods in certain parts of India may lead to subdued demand in the festive season. BLSTR expects ~10-15% growth in the unitary products segment for FY20E. The Rupee depreciation will put stress on costs. 

·       BLSTR intends to focus on margins and cash. The cash position has been improving at BLSTR. In 1QFY20, it became ~Rs 10 mn net cash company from a borrowing level of Rs 4,050 mn in 1QFY19.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

·       The closing stock price of BLSTR was Rs 710/- as of 22-August-19. It traded at 31x / 25x / 22x the consensus EPS for FY 20E / FY 21E / FY 22E EPS of Rs 23.0 / 28.3/ 32.8 respectively.

·       Consensus target price of Rs 779/- implies a PE of 24x on FY22E EPS of Rs 32.8

Bluestar: 1QFY20 – Increase in raw material prices impact profitability

Dated:- 16th August 2019

1QFY20 Results

·       Bluestar (BLSTR) reported consolidated revenue growth of 4% YoY to Rs 15,755 mn in 1QFY20. The Electro-Mechanical Projects and Packaged Air Conditioning Systems (EMP) segment reported muted revenues at Rs 6,239 mn impacted by a slowdown in the execution of projects business. The Main business of ACs – Unitary Products (UP) – segment revenues grew by 9% YoY to Rs 9,069 mn. The Professional Electronics and Industrial Systems (PEIS) segment revenues declined by 23% YoY to Rs 446 mn on a higher base of 1QFY19.

·       The EBITDA declined by 16% YoY to Rs 1,149 mn. The raw material costs increased by ~440 bps YoY while the other expenses reduced by ~325 bps YoY. The EBITDA margin contracted by ~180 bps YoY to 7.3%.

·       All segmental margins were lower YoY. In the UP segment, the EBIT margins declined by ~50bps YoY to 10.9%. The EMP segment margins declined by ~100 bps YoY to 5.4%. The PEIS segment margins declined by ~450 bps to 9.9% impacted by the variation in the mix of new orders.

·       The other income was higher at Rs 217 mn on account of receipt of an industrial promotion subsidy for the manufacturing facility at Wada.  The finance costs were lower at Rs 82 mn (v/s Rs 121 mn in 1QFY19) due to the effective management of working capital and consequently lower borrowings in Q1FY20. Consolidated PAT stood at Rs 768 mn v/s Rs 916 mn in 1QFY19.

Management Commentary

·       Rs 140 mn industrial promotion subsidy received for the manufacturing facility at Wada; includes Rs 84 mn allocated to the EMP segment and Balance Rs 56 mn allocated towards the UP segment.

·       For the EMP Segment, the order book reported a growth of 34% Yoy to Rs 28,410 mn and the order intake increased by ~55% YoY at ~Rs 9,669 mn

·       The UP-segment margins were impacted due to the adverse product mix. In 1QFY20, there was an increase in the demand for 2 Star – 3Star fixed speed ACs which are comparatively lower margin products.

·       Management guided for 12-15% YoY revenue growth for the Room AC segment for FY20E and margin guidance of ~9.5%-10%. BLSTR’s current market share is ~12.5% and the management expects to reach 13.5% by FY20E end.

·       The Market size of Room ACs is ~Rs 110 -120 bn with annual volumes of 5.5 mn-6 mn units. The industry market share of inverter AC segment was ~60% in Q1FY20, BLSTR’s inverter share was 52% during the quarter.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

·       The closing price of BLSTR was Rs 702/- as of 16-August-19. It traded at 30x / 25x the consensus EPS for FY 20E / FY 21E EPS of Rs 23.3 / 28.3 respectively.

·       Consensus target price of Rs 776/- implies a PE of 27x on FY21E EPS of Rs 28.3.