Expect double digit growth over the next 5 years – Kansai NerolacRicha Varu Rathod
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Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. HM Bharuka, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Kansai Nerolac with ETNOW dated 3rd September 2020:
• His comments on completing 100 years: Feels proud to complete 100 years, there are few companies in India who have thrived and survived 100 years. Surviving through various crises in the past 100 years and going through Covid indicates the strength of the company.
• His views on the next 3-5 years and visibility for the business: Paint industry since 1991 is having double-digit growth. He thinks the penetration level is still low, per capita income is rising, and expects double-digit growth for the next 20-25 years. Looking at various parameters like consumer, demography, infrastructure, auto industry gives confidence that these sectors will grow from hereon and sees good prospects for the paint industry for the next 20-25 years.
• When asked about his views on auto sales numbers picking up in the month of Aug-20 he commented that it is slowly picking up, because of the pandemic and financial crisis, the auto industry was facing problems. But every 3-5 years, the auto industry does see a dip and then recovers back. It was about to recover but due to the pandemic it got postponed and now we can see month on month improvement, but he thinks still there is a long way to go. Commercial vehicles are still in problem and for 2 wheelers, some companies have done well and the others have not. Overall, he thinks it will take time for the auto industry to recover but positive signs are beginning to show up. In fact, he thinks pandemic would accelerate if we are able to sort out financial issues, because of the social distancing norm and people avoiding public transport, everyone would now like to own their own private vehicle. India should focus on the auto industry as it an important core industry and can become an export hub for auto and auto components and is optimistic about the auto sector.
• When asked about the demand scenario and whether he sees continuing volume growth for the rest of the year he stated that despite there being problems like non-availability of painters and people fearing to interact with each other still, Nerolac saw growth from May-20 onwards, which is a positive sign. Posting double-digit growth in 1FY21 indicates the strong nature of the paint industry and is confident about the architecture industry and is also positive on auto, infrastructure, and white goods segment.
• When asked about the possibility of market share shifting from urban to rural areas, he informed that the penetration level of this industry is low in rural areas, so in any case, Nerolac is supposed to do better in rural areas as compared to the urban market. Due to this pandemic, the rural economy is doing well and expects rural demand to continue to grow faster than urban going forward. He is counting more on the rural market to do well for double-digit growth for the company.
• When asked whether Indian companies are complete “aatmanirbhar”, he said that India has only one manufacturer of TiO2, an important raw material for paints, and that too is government-controlled. More than 2/3rd of India’s TiO2 consumption is currently being imported. He believes there is a big opportunity to make TiO2, Monomers, and other pigments used for specialty paints in India.
• His comments on strategy for the next 5 years: This is the industry is a defensive and growing industry which is reflected in PE multiple ranging from 40-60x. For the next 5 years, Nerolac expects to continue to grow in double digits if growth continues there are few players as entry barriers are high and hence expect margins to expand. Of course, global consolidation will take place, but despite that, all major players are in India and it is expected that current players will expand its topline and bottom line. He expects 12% compounded growth for the company and stock return to be higher than 12%. He sees a golden period for investors and shareholders. Commenting on dividend payout, he said that this industry has positive cash flow, and when there are no other investment opportunities there is no point keeping the cash as ROCE goes down. So, certainly, cash should be given back if no other investment opportunities are found.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)
• The closing price of Kansai Nerolac was ₹ 486/- as of 04-Sep-2020. It traded at 59x/43x/36x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 8.27/11.5/13.7 per share for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 426/- implies a PE multiple of 31x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 13.7/-
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