Another price hike if gas prices rise further – Somany Ceramics

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY ended higher at 18,162 (+0.9%) as it closed near the intraday high level of 18,198. Among the sectoral indices, AUTO (+3.4%), METAL (+1.5%), and IT (+1.2%) ended higher, whereas REALTY (-0.2%) was the only sector which ended lower. Among the stocks, TATAMOTORS (+21%), M&M (+5.2%), and TATACONSUM (+4.3%) led the gainers while MARUTI (-2.6%), ONGC (-2.2%), and SBILIFE (-1.8%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Abhishek Somany, MD, of Somany Ceramics (SOMANYCERA) with CNBC TV18 on 12th October 2021:

  • About 1000 plants that manufacture ceramics and are located in Morbi, Gujarat have decided to increase prices as the gas prices have gone up. There has already been a price increase this week and there will be a further price increase in the next 15-20 days. When this happens, Somany Ceramics will increase prices again.
  • The gas price constitutes 25-28% of the company’s cost. The industry has increased price by ~Rs 2-3 a square foot. The industry passed on a reasonable increase in gas prices. As the gas prices stabilise, the industry will be able to pass on 80+% of the prices to its customers.
  • The company is at 100% capacity utilisation though the prices have gone up. The demand is back, at least for brand new players. It is good news for the industry as the demand for the real estate sector has picked up.
  • Tile is not a very large renovation market. About 18-20% is used in renovation, rest is used in the new application.

 

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • As the demand for real estate is picking up, this will prove as a tailwind for Somany Ceramics in the near to mid-term, as the company’s product (tiles) is used largely in new applications.
  • The company’s margins may improve as the raw material prices stabilise, along with an increased price of company’s products.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of SOMANYCERA was ₹ 830/- as of 13-Oct-2021.  It traded at 33.7x/23.5x/18.3x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 25/35/45 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 810/- implies a PE multiple of 17.9x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 45/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Exports will be the focus area after the acquisition – Motherson sumi

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday , NIFTY ended higher at 17,991 (+0.26%). All the sectoral indices were gainers, led by PSU Banks (+3.1%), Media (+1.5%), and FMCG (+1.2%). IT was the lone loser, down by (-0.9%). Among the stocks, Titan (+6.1%), Bajaj Auto (+3.3%), and Bajaj Finserv (+3.0%) led the gainers while HCL Tech (-3.7%), HDFC Life (-1.9%), and Coal India (-1.7%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Vivek Chaand Sehgal, Chairman , of Motherson Sumi (MS) with ET NOW on 11th October 2021:

  • Acquisition of CIM Tools in aerospace segment will be beneficial for MS. CIM Tools have an order book of more than $200 million and the company will do very well in coming time.
  • Exports will be the focus area because MS set up bases in the different countries with CIM Tools and there will be a rise in exports because of the customers are abroad.
  • CIM Tools is a profit-making company and idea would be to improve it and add to the top line. MS has a clear thinking. They get 40% return on capital employed.
  • MS is acquiring existing profit-making joint venture in China. It is very important because MS is more into in passenger vehicles and this one is all about commercial vehicles .
  • MS has a huge presence in China and company have a huge market that they can then generate in China itself.
  • Opportunity wise in two to three years company will be all over in China. Company is learning about commercial vehicles. It is a wonderful area to get into it because MS is very strong with commercial vehicles globally.
  • Comparing global and domestic business is very difficult. The kinds of cars that are produced outside and the cars in India are very different in terms of value. Every car that produced there has a buyer for it. That means customers are at very good situation. Companies have the orders but they have some supply constraints.
  • The chip shortage and all other things combated with customers in a very strong way. The demand is huge and the situation is also getting better.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Auto production cuts and raw material price increase due to inflation might affect company’s performance in the near term.
  • Company is expanding its business in different segments. This will be the growth driver.

 Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Motherson Sumi Systems Limited was ₹ 245/- as of 12-Oct-2021. It traded at 35x/23x/20x the consensus earnings per share estimate of ₹6.89/10.8/12.4 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 254/- implies a PE multiple of 20x on FY24E EPS of ₹12.4/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

This quarter is all about consolidation of growth momentum – TCS

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY ended higher at 17,946 (+0.3%) as it closed near the intraday high level of 18,041. All the sectoral indices were gainers, led by AUTO (+3%), REALTY (+1.7%), and METAL (+1.5%) except IT which was down by (-3.3%). Among the stocks, TATAMOTORS (+9.1%), COALINDIA (+4.4%), and MARUTI (+3.4%) led the gainers while TCS (-6.3%), TECHM (-2.7%), and INFY (-1.8%) led the losers. 

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. Rajesh Gopinathan, CEO and MD, of TCS  with Business Standard on 11th October 2021:

  • TCS believes that this is one of the best quarters they have had. The growth was broad-based. From a deal win standpoint, every vertical has come back strongly.
  • Large verticals like retail and manufacturing have all done well.
  • Growth has been driven by three aspects: increased outsourcing, building a digital core, and growth and transformation agenda of clients.
  • This growth is evident in customer metrics as the numbers are above pre-pandemic baselines and each layer of the customer pyramid has grown.
  • This growth momentum is expected to continue as the demand is strong but there could be seasonality of demand and operations which are specific to industries and regions. How this seasonality pans out remains to be seen.
  • Two years ago, TCS experimented by taking in 32,000-35,000 freshers in the first two quarters and this model proved to be successful. They plan to do this in FY22 as well, as their approach to providing fresher training is modified.
  • Fresher training is no longer looked at as a standalone activity. Rather, it is deeply integrated into business units themselves. The training is more aligned to where demand is and the focus of the curriculum is in tune with the business units.
  • By participating in G&T (Growth and Transformation) projects, TCS has been trying to be aware of which part of the customer agenda they were partnering with. Creating awareness and articulating what TCS does, both internally and externally are the key part.
  • What matters is that TCS is relevant to its customer base. They have over 1,000 customers and 98% of its business is repeat business’s relevance to customers should continue and increase.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • TCS like the entirety of the IT Industry has been facing the brunt of attrition-related margin pressures. Strong brand building and employee satisfaction have helped it keep attrition at an industry low.
  • We expect these input pressures to sustain over the next 2-3 quarters post which TCS’ long-term growth levers would kick in and help the company venture into the next phase of growth.

 Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of TCS was ₹ 3,686/- as of 11-Oct-2021. It traded at 38x/33x/30x the consensus earnings per share estimate of ₹ 105/119/132 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 3,978/- implies a PE multiple of 30x on FY24E EPS of ₹/132-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

This week in a nutshell (4th – 8th October)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 4th October at 17,616 and closed on 8th October at 17,895. It made a weekly gain of ~1.6%. On the upside, 17,948 might act as a resistance. On the downside, 20DMA of 17,648 might act as a support. RSI (14 days) of 66 is indicating the index is in an overbought zone.

Weekly highlights

  • Auto companies released the monthly volume data for September-21. Domestic CV volumes were robust, aided by healthy freight availability and better freight rates. Tractor sales reported a strong MoM growth albeit on a low base due to good rainfall. Supply issues and an inauspicious period led to subdued volumes for other segments. Companies suggest an inability to cater to demand due to supply chain challenges. This has led to lower inventory build-up before the festive season. This might lead to longer waiting periods or postponement of festival purchases by customers.
  • Media reports suggest the government may abandon its demand for spectrum charges of Rs 400 bn from telecom operators to support companies. This latest move may provide another ray of hope to companies such as Vodafone Idea Ltd and Bharti Airtel Ltd after the government’s decision to offer a 4-year moratorium on dues.
  • The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and their allies (OPEC+) said it would stick to its existing plan for a gradual increase in oil output, which sent crude prices to three-year highs. West Texas Intermediate reached USD$ 78 a barrel while Brent Crude rose 3% to ~US$ 82 a barrel. The OPEC+ ignored calls from big consumers such as the USA and India for extra supplies after oil prices surged over 50% this year.
  • The US indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) held on to weekly gains. Throughout the week, investors’ attention has been on rising energy prices, concerns about inflation, and negotiations on the debt ceiling. On Thursday, the US Senate has voted to extend the debt ceiling until December 3. This provides some relief to investors worried about the government default this month.
  • The Indian equity markets remained volatile during the week ended October 8. The key positives were RBI maintaining its stance with no rate change, and Moody’s upgrading India’s outlook to stable from negative. Rising bond yield, and crude oil prices, Fitch cutting India’s FY22 GDP growth forecast (to 8.7% from 10% in June) worried investors.
  • The government of India has sold the national carrier, Air India to the Tata Group. Tata Sons submitted a winning bid of Rs 180bn as the Enterprise value. The conclusion of this sale indicates the government is serious about its ambitions of privatisation.
  • Though the foreign institutional investors (FII) selling continued this week, the quantum was much lower at Rs 36,857mn vs Rs 61,520mn last week. Domestic institutional investors (DII) buying reduced to Rs 34,581mn from the Rs 75,030 mn in the previous week.

Things to watch out for next week

  • The 2QFY22 result season has started with TCS reporting earnings this week. The result season takes centre stage next week with other IT companies such as Infosys, Mindtree, and Wipro set to announce their earnings. While the street is estimating sequential revenue growth for the companies, commentary on deal wins and margin pressures due to rising employee costs & attrition would be critical.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

Expects 2 Year Revenue CAGR to be in double digits: Godrej Consumer Products

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY closed higher at 17,800(+0.9%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were TATAMOTORS (+12.6%), TITAN (+10.5%), and M&M (+4.9%). The top losers were ONGC (-4.4%), DRREDDY (-1.3%), and COALINDIA (-0.96%). The top gaining sectors were REALTY(+6.2%), CONSUMER DURABLES (+5.2%), and AUTO (+4.4%), while OIL & GAS (-0.3%) was the only losing sector.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Sameer Shah, Chief Financial Officer, Godrej Consumer Products with CNBCTV18 on 6th October 2021:

  • The company expects high single-digit growth in 2QFY22E and a gradual recovery in 2HFY22E.
  • The company is witnessing consumer offtakes for stapes and discretionary relatively strong.
  • At the beginning of the year, Company had laid out the ambition of double-digit sales growth. It is on track and expects to see the same for 2HFY22E.
  • Staples continued its growth momentum and discretionary or out-of-home categories continued to see an uptick.
  • The hygiene category is expected to normalise at levels much higher than pre-COVID, but not at the peak of COVID levels.
  • The company expects rural consumption and its growth momentum to be strong for the medium term. More importantly, the consumer offtake is looking robust.
  • The company expects international performance to be mixed. Challenging macro-economic variables are impacting the performance.
  • In countries like Indonesia the vaccination is picking up but the recovery is slow as compared to countries like India. The overall consumption has been relatively muted. Gradual recovery is expected for the rest of the year and over a period of time to reach double-digit growth.
  • In Africa, double-digit growth is seen since the last 5-6 quarters and the company expects this growth momentum to continue in the medium term.
  • The commodities prices are at their peak especially the agri-commodities. The prices of Palm oil which is a key ingredient for the personal wash category and crude which is an indirect derivative and key ingredient for packaging material are at their peak.
  • The company believes the input cost is transient, it is taking calibrated price increases and working on cost-saving programs. It thinks scale leverage and premiumization should mitigate the high input cost impact partly if not fully.
  • On an annual basis, the company expects margins to be marginally lower than 21% levels.
  • The company plans to focus on double-digit sales growth. Once revenue growth is achieved and input cost normalizes, margins are expected to move up.
  • Mr. Sudhir Sitapati to take over as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer on 18-Oct-21.
  • The company wants to stretch its play in the personal care space, some steps are already taken by the company in this direction, and wants to continue to expand in the next 3-4 years.
  • Advertisement costs would be a mix of digital and traditional mass-market media like television and print.
  • The advertisement spends are in the range of 10-12% in India, another growth pivot has always been innovation which needs a lot of awareness among consumers. Directionally, the company does believe the ad spends could go up.
  • New launches drive premiumization and the company sees an increase in budgets of ad spends in the next 12-18 months.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • We think the company has been performing consistently well in various large categories. New product launches, premiumization and increasing advertisement spends will likely support the sales and margin growth.
  • We believe the company continues to focus on multiple building blocks and will be able to drive profitable and sustainable sales growth in the medium term.

 

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener websites)

 

  • The closing price of Godrej Consumer Products was ₹ 1,030/- as of 07-Oct-21. It traded at 54x/46x/40x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 19/22.1/25.2 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 1,093/- implies a PE multiple of 43xon FY24E EPS of ₹ 25.2/-.

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

Demand growth visible despite price hikes – Blue Star

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Wednesday, NIFTY ended lower at 17,629 (-1.1%). All the sectors were losers today led by METAL (-3.0%), PSUBANK (-1.9%), and PHARMA (-1.9%). Among the stocks, TATACONSUM (+2.5%), ONGC (+2.2%), and UPL (+1.7%) led the gainers while HINDALCO (-4%), SBILIFE (-3.6%), and INDUSINDBK (-3.4%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Mr. B Thiagarajan, MD, Blue Star with CNBC TV18 on 5th October 2021:

  • The sales of room air conditioners in the month of Sep-21 were better than last year (Sep-20) and have reached the pre-pandemic levels.
  • The summer season, which is the strongest quarter for the company, was impacted by the second COVID-19 wave. It will be extremely tough for the company to make up for it in 2QFY22E and 3QFY22E.
  • However, demand from the month of Jul-21 has been considerably higher than industry expectations. As people are working from home and spending more time in their homes, they are renovating and upgrading their houses which could be the reason for robust demand. The company anticipates strong demand throughout the next festival season.
  • In 1QFY22, Bluestar was at 35% of pre-pandemic levels and in Sep-21 have reached the pre-pandemic levels.
  • The company is getting growth from first-time buyers, as the number of first-time purchasers has considerably grown. Despite the price seen in the months of Jan-21, Apr-21and Sep-21 the demand is not impacted. 50 percent of buyers used consumer finance schemes.
  • In terms of price hikes, there was an average rise of roughly 4% in the month of Sep-21.
  • On a YoY basis, the company anticipates a 1% decrease in margins due to raw material inflation, which would be compensated by operating costs. Hence the overall EBIT/PBT Margins would not be impacted.
  • The firm does not anticipate any significant increases in freight and commodities in the near term.
  • The B2B segment is performing well in the manufacturing sector. There are also various infrastructure projects like metro railway project and data center which are important segments for Bluestar. It includes air conditioning and electro-mechanical work. The company is closely tracking this segment and participating actively in the enquiries.
  • In the B2B segment, the important sector is building which includes offices and light commercial or retail (shops, showrooms, boutiques, and restaurants). Such kind of infrastructure is built upon in many Tier-3/4/5 cities. The manufacturing, commercial segment, and buildings account for 30%, 40%, and 30% of the B2B segment revenues respectively.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • There has been a bounce-back in demand starting from July-21 which will likely be reflected in 2QFY22 sales numbers. However, a complete recovery will likely be visible in 1QFY23E.
  • Upcoming investments in infrastructure and a recovery in real estate bode well for the company that predominantly services large infra-projects. The Company will have the added benefits of PLI Schemes, New Greenfield Project in FY23 adding to top-line growth and margin improvement.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of BLUESTAR was ₹ 871/- as of 06-Oct-2021. It traded at 52x/33x/27x the consensus earnings per share estimate of ₹ 17/26/32 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 845/- implies a PE multiple of 26x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 32/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

Multi-Year growth potential for all verticals – Infoedge

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, NIFTY ended higher at 17,822. The top gainers in NIFTY50 were ONGC (+10.8%), INDUSINDBK (+5.0%), and COALINDIA (+4.2%). The top losers were CIPLA (-2.4%), HINDALCO (-2.1%), and SHREECEM (-1.8%). The top gaining sectors were OIL & GAS (+2.8%), IT (+1.2%), and MEDIA (+0.8%), while the top sectoral losers were REALTY (-1.4%), HEALTHCARE (-0.7%), and PHARMA (-0.5%).  

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Hitesh Oberoi, CEO & MD, Info Edge with CNBCTV18 aired on 04th September 2021:

  • In the last few quarters, the job market, especially for engineers has not been of the type one has seen in maybe the last two decades. It’s a super-hot market with attrition rates for most companies going through the roof, talent is impossible to hire.
  • The company believes it is a rock-solid market, and it is slowly spreading now to the non-IT sectors as well. Starting with the IT market, which has been growing for the last three quarters but now, it’s now beginning to spread to the other sectors as well, as the Indian economy starts to recover.
  • There is a limited pool of talent, every company wants to go digital and companies have brought forward their multi-year plans. Companies that were hoping to get 30-50 percent of their business to come from digital in the next five years are now hoping that 70 percent of their business will be digital in the next two years.
  • The fact that there are remote working opportunities, people are able to get jobs not just in India but even overseas. There is this massive surge right now, one cannot overnight produce a lot of engineers, or overnight upskill them. Unless the demand is hit for some reason, the situation will continue to be like this for the next few quarters as well.
  • The company is a pure-play internet company that runs an online job portal Naukri.com. It has massively benefitted from this uptick in the employment market and has managed to translate that to revenue growth as well.
  • The company is also bullish on the growth prospects of its other website 99acres.com, a real estate classifieds platform due to demand pick-up post lock down impact. According to him, growing prices, demand pick up across the country, cheaper credit availability are all signs of a multi-year growth cycle for real estate.
  • The Wedding cycle is also poised to pick up with more liberal government policies and the pent-up demand due to lockdowns that had brought this industry to a stand -still, the upcoming festive and wedding season bodes well for Matrimony.com.
  • Infoedge continues to be a startup incubator and aggregator with investments across startups like Zomato and Policy Bazaar and the company will continue to be on the lookout for strategic acquisitions in the startup ecosystem which is currently in a valuation bubble.
  • The Company is planning to launch an in-house blue-collar job portal called JobHai which is currently in the test marketing stage and also has made strategic investments in real estate, jobs, and education verticals.
  • The company has significant cash and capital balances to fund more startups and acquisitions to expand its portfolio and will look at listing each of its businesses separately if it believes that will help shareholders unlock more value.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • The intensity of digital penetration across India has increased over the past few years, however, there is a lot more value to be unlocked for companies like Infoedge by expanding across India.
  • Infoedge has created a value chain through its verticals and strategic acquisitions that range from education to jobs, insurance to real estate, and now food delivery, which will likely consolidate its presence as the undisputed leader of internet-based aggregators in India.

Consensus Estimate (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Infoedge was ₹ 6,493/- as of 05-Oct-21. It traded at 193x/148x/118x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 36/47/59 for FY22E/ FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 6,520/- implies a PE multiple of 111x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 59/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

 

Mid-market segment to lead growth in festive season – Bajaj Auto

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, NIFTY ended higher at 17,691 (+0.9%) as it closed near the intraday high level of 17,751. All the sectoral indices were gainers, led by METAL (+3%), MEDIA (+2.6%), and REALTY (+2.2%). Among the stocks, DIVISLAB (+7.8%), HINDALCO (+4.6%), and NTPC (+4%) led the gainers while CIPLA (-3%), GRASIM (-2.3%), and UPL (-1.4%) led the losers.

Excerpts of an interview with Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director, of Bajaj Auto (BAJAJ-AUTO) with CNBC TV18 on 1st October 2021:

  • Chip shortage is affecting the manufacturing of high-end bikes and their customers around the world are disappointed. The company is able to meet only 65% of the requirements.
  • On the export side, the company is very comfortable despite the container and chip shortage and it will do much more in October ‘21 compared to September ’21. The demand is returning well in markets like Latin America, Africa, South Asia. The company expects sales volumes through exports to remain over 200,000 vehicle per month.
  • Migration from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle to electric is going to continue. The company cannot determine the pace of this change as it is primarily driven by factors like overall costs coming down for customers, reassurance regarding charging infrastructure. In this phase, the company is pre-occupied with building capabilities.
  • The company’s retail outlook in the festive period is positive. The indicators like rural demand pickup, behaviour of retail finance, shaping up of enquiries, excitement at dealership level suggest a single digit to low-double digit growth during the festive season. It expects the mid-market segment to lead growth during the festive season.
  • The company plans to occupy and retain a premium position in 2-wheeler electric vehicles (EVs). It is offering the most highly priced vehicle in this segment with self-proclaimed value additions in terms of very good design, best performance, an all-steel body, and a very good customer care.

Asset Multiplier Comments

  • Bajaj Auto is planning to set up a separate subsidiary for EV. It already sells Chetak scooter and is planning to launch 3-wheeler EVs in FY22. This will help the company to build the required capabilities and cater to growth in the EV business.
  • The domestic volume figures will improve from 3QFY22 as the company plans to aggressively launch products in 125cc segment, and provide innovative offerings in the entry motorcycle segment.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of BAJAJ-AUTO was ₹ 3823/- as on 04-Oct-2021. It traded at 21x/17x/15x the consensus earnings per Share estimate of ₹ 186/221/248 for FY22E/FY23E/FY24E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 4232/- implies a PE multiple of 17x on FY24E EPS of ₹ 248/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

This Week in a nutshell (27th Sept to 01st Oct)

Technical talks

NIFTY opened the week on 27th September at 17,932 and closed on 01st October at 17,532 during the week, the index lost -2.23%. Nifty is trading at an RSI of 58, with support at 17336 and resistance at 18,138.

Weekly highlights

  • US President Joe Biden on Thursday signed a nine-week stopgap funding bill that averts a government shutdown but fails to resolve the threat of a US default linked to the debt limit.
  • US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that if lawmakers fail to raise the debt limit by about Oct. 18, the government may not be able to pay its bills, posing a dire risk to the US and World Economy with the US Treasury defaulting on its debt obligations.
  • Japan’s former foreign minister Fumio Kishida is set to replace Yoshihide Suga as prime minister after he won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership vote on Wednesday. Kishida will succeed Prime Minister Suga, the world’s eyes will be on the third-largest economy in the world which is facing stagnant economic growth battered by the coronavirus pandemic, the remnants of an unprecedented public health crisis, and increased political manoeuvring by China.
  • Brent Crude is at its highest since October 2018 and heading for $80 per barrel, as investors fretted about tighter supplies because of rising demand in parts of the world. Brent crude was up $1.44, or 1.8%, to settle at $79.53 a barrel, having posted three straight weeks of gains. Global supplies have tightened due to the fast recovery of fuel demand from the outbreak of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and Hurricane Ida’s hit on U.S. production
  • China’s top state-owned energy companies have been ordered to ensure there are adequate fuel supplies for the approaching winter at all costs, a report said Friday, as the country battles a power crisis that threatens to hit growth in the world’s number two economy. The country has been hit by widespread power cuts that have closed or partially closed factories, hitting production and global supply chains. The crisis has been caused by a confluence of factors including rising overseas demand as economies reopen, record coal prices, state electricity price controls and tough emissions targets.
  • The country’s top carmaker Maruti Suzuki said that it will produce fewer cars in October due to the ongoing global chip crisis. It expects vehicle production at two of its plants to be around 60 per cent of normal levels. The chip shortage has emerged as a major crisis around the world since 2020 after a sharp rise in demand for consumer electronics and continued global supply chain disruptions.
  • During the week, the foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold equities worth Rs 61,520 mn, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 75,030 mn.

Things to watch out for next week

  • Q2FY22 Result season to begin with software services leader TCS announcing its results.
  • Rising Oil Prices, US Treasury Yields, Evergrande’s default, and the uncertainty over the U.S default of its debt obligations will be the themes that are in focus this week.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

Expect yearly addition of cards to be 2.4 million – SBI Cards

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, NIFTY closed 0.5% lower at 17,618. Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Bajaj Finance (+2.1%), Bajaj Finserv (+2.1%), and Tata Motors (+1.0%). The top losers were Power Grid (-2.8%), Asian Paints (-2.3%), and Shree Cement (-2.2%). The top gaining sectors were Realty (+1.5%), Consumer Durables (+1.0%), and PSU Banks (+0.8%), while the top sectoral losers were Media (-0.9%), Metal (-0.9%), and Bank (-0.8%).

Experts of an interview with Mr. Rama Mohan Rao Amara, MD & CEO at SBI Cards aired on CNBC TV18 on 29th September 2021:

  • The industry has recorded strong spending at the aggregate level. SBI Cards crossed pre- pandemic levels in terms of run rate.
  • The company adopted sustainable strategy and leveraged on every opportunity that they have that is reflected in improvement in market share. Both channels- direct sources and the parent company SBI are contributing equally to improvement in market share.
  • The results of strategy they implemented are reflecting in their improvement in market share, the market share was improving steadily and they have aim for very sustainable performance. This has also helped in diversification of risk and profitability of portfolio.
  • Gradual unlocking has a positive impact on spends per card. In 1QFY22, online spends were contributing to the card spend. With the unlocking, point of sale (POS) contribution is increasing, discretionary spends improved due to categories like jewelry, apparel, and restaurant spends are increasing. Non-discretionary categories such as insurance, health and wellness are also contributing in a big way.
  • SBI Cards aimed for 10,000 new accounts per day and they reached that level and they maintaining it consistently. They have to manage attrition for net growth of the company.
  • SBI Cards has open market and banca customer channel in open market they have many collaborations.
  • He expects growth of around 4 million card additions in a year & India is still an underpenetrated market when it comes to credit cards.
  • They are planning to expand their market into tier-III and tier-IV cities with the help of their bank channels which beneficiary for SBI Cards in customer addition.
  • The market expansion in tier-III and tier-IV cities takes slightly longer time compared to tier-I and tier-II.
  • If they are growing at 2 million, then it is safe to presume that it will be five times minimum for the industry, he mentioned.

Asset Multiplier comments:

  • The company is expected growth in tier-III and tier-IV cities, which might be lucrative for the industry.
  • SBI Cards might be have an advantage than other peers are their branch channels in tier-III and tier-IV cities which beneficiary for SBI Cards in customer addition.
  • The risk from growth of the Fintech organizations might be contraction in the market share of SBI cards.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener websites)

  • The closing price of SBI Cards was ₹ 1,027/- as of 30-September-2021.  It traded at 12x/ 10x/ 7x the consensus book value estimate of ₹ 84/108/139 for FY22E/23E/24E respectively.
  • The consensus price target is ₹ 1,185/- which trades at 9x the book value estimate for FY24E of ₹ 139/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”