FMCG

27 Aug

Pandemic has impacted all layers of FMCG – Nestlé

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Wednesday, NIFTY ended up 77 pts (+0.7%) at 11,550.
Among the sectoral indices, MEDIA (+2.5%), AUTO (+1.5%) and PVT BANK (+1.8%) were the top gainers while FMCG (-0.2%) and PHARMA (-0.1%) were the losers.
Among the stocks, TATAMOTORS (+8.8%), HEROMOTOCO (+6.4%), and INDUSINDBK (+6.0%) were the top gainers. BHARTIARTL (-2.9%), ULTRACEMCO (-2.2%), and ASIANPAINT (-1.4%) were the top losers.

Pandemic has impacted all layers of FMCG – Nestlé

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Suresh Narayanan, MD & CEO of Nestle with Mint dated 25th August 2020:

• Food companies with a strong digital-first capability are the ones that are going to hold consumers’ interest for a long time, Nestlé boss Suresh Narayanan said.
• His comments on consumer sentiment and mobility:
o Covid-19 is not just a health challenge, it is also a humanitarian call to redefine the way humans live, engage and work innovatively.
o Companies that are better placed to react to the new normal will naturally be preferred more by consumers.
o Food companies need to leverage their in-depth knowledge of food habits, nutrition, quality and safety in order to innovate and renovate, and adapt to this new normal.
o They need to respond to new demands, reset defining relationships with consumers and reconsider their product portfolio in the post-covid era to make products healthier, while allowing consumers to make an indulgent choice.
• His outlook for the Indian economy in the short and medium term: India’s economy is showing signs of recovery after withstanding the impact of covid-19. Some sectors were impacted more than others. With easing of restrictions on economic activities, businesses are slowly getting back on track. The government announced several measures to ensure business continuity and sectoral revival.
• When asked what other measures government should take to drive demand, he replied that the government has taken measures to increase liquidity and is hopeful that it will help the economic climate and push up demand. MGNREGA inputs have maintained an income source for a large number of people in rural areas and helped maintain demand. A good monsoon also helps. While we do see a push up in rural demand, as the economy starts opening up, it should create jobs and help build up urban demand as well. A strong focus on infrastructure development will revive the job sector as well as demand.
• Nestlé has witnessed better growth in Tier 2, 3 and 4 cities, semi-urban areas than urban areas during the lockdown. Rural consumption continues to be stronger than urban demand.
• Strong performance was delivered in the e-commerce channel. The demand in all out-of-home consumption channels experienced a sharp decline due to the lockdown. However, Nestlé brands enjoy trust, credibility and strength as far as in-home consumption is concerned. This boosted sales of dairy whitener, milk and coffee, all of which performed well. Maggi witnessed solid growth towards the end of the quarter after initial supply constraints.
• When asked whether consumer preferences will change when things will go normal, he stated that Covid-19 has had a profound impact on the pace, channel, texture and frequency of consumption, across a variety of segments in FMCG. There is a redefinition of out-of-home consumption in favor of brands and formats that are more in-home.
• Channel contexts have undergone sharp changes with a surge in e-commerce. Nestlé witnessed contribution of e-commerce going up significantly, while out-of home has not done well. If you look at e-commerce channels in the US, what took eight years in terms of penetration was achieved in eight weeks. Clearly the e-commerce journey is here to stay and there will be recalibration of channels.
• Quality, safety, nutrition and trust have undergone sharper re-definition and consumers tend to favor tried-and-tested brands and relationships formed herein. A new word has been added to the lexicon of consumer needs, which is “immunity” for self and the family. Categories that are in favor have changed and, together with the economic pandemic that followed Covid-19, a recalibration of the consumer wallets is taking place where essentials are taking precedence over luxuries, however affordable they are.
• When asked how Nestle has prepared to adapt to this change, he commented that their entire innovation funnel is undergoing a change. Every business is recalibrating in the context of newly relevant consumer behaviors that are coming in, that is, what innovations we should go with, what innovation should be left out.
• He is a great believer that in a crisis, one should engage, not disengage. If we disengage, then the consumer has other choices. Going forward, consumers are going to be more digitally active than they were earlier, and food companies with a strong digital-first capability are the ones that are going to hold consumers’ interest for a long time. Overall, Nestlé have accelerated digital engagements across key parts of our portfolio and put out innovative digital campaigns to engage with consumers.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com websites)

• The closing price of Nestle India was ₹ 16,202/- as of 26-Aug-2020. It traded at 71x/51x/62x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 228/269/311 per share for FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E respectively.
• The consensus target price of ₹ 16,758/- implies a PE multiple of 54x on FY23E EPS of ₹ 311/-

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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12 Aug

Healthcare and hygiene portfolio has grown by 29% in Q1 – Emami

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Tuesday, NIFTY closed in the green at 11,322 (+0.5%). Top gainers in NIFTY50 were Zee (+5.2%), JSW Steel (+3.9%), and Axis bank (+3.9%). The top losers were Shree Cement (-3.9%), Titan (-3.6%), and UPL (-2.3%). The top sectoral gainers were MEDIA (+1.9%), PVT BANK (+1.7%) and METAL (+1.6%) and sectoral losers were PHARMA (-1.4%), IT (-0.5%), and REALTY (-0.5%).

Excerpts of an interview with Mr NH Bhansali, CEO, Emami with ET now dated 10th August 2020:

● April was impacted badly. They progressed well in May and in June they grew in single digit. The July trajectory is also good. They grew in double digits in July and they expect the growth to resume.
● On the international front also, while they have declined in the first quarter but in the second quarter, they expect to improve on the international front as well. They expect moderate growth in 2QFY21.
● The healthcare and hygiene portfolio has grown by 29% in Q1FY21 and it contributed around 43% of the turnover in the first quarter. While the summer brands and other brands including the male grooming all de-grew by 44%.
● This pulled down the overall growth which contributed around 57%. Going forward they expect good growth from the healthcare and hygiene products kind of sanitizers.
● new launches there in the healthcare and sanitizers like Boroplus Sanitizer, soaps, aloe vera gel, zandu immunity range, chyawanprash they all contributed around 5% of the turnover.
● Navratna and others were declining in the first quarter but now in June-July they have started recovering. Kesh King range was declining in April-May but cumulatively in June, the Kesh King range has been able to wipe out its losses.
● It is stable now, it has maintained its growth and they expect now the growth to come in in the second quarter. Summer brands have also now started picking up while the decline earlier was higher but in June-July the decline has been lesser.
● The gross margins have reduced by 230 bps and EBITDA margins has improved by 480 bps. The gross margin has been mainly because of the benign cost and they expect this kind of margins to continue.
● On the EBITDA level, they had taken many initiatives, right from reducing on the advertisements which was not required in the April as they were completely off air in April, May and June now gradually they are resuming some of the advertisements
● They have internally targeted to improve their costs by around Rs 80-100 crore in the next 12 months and they are well on the path and they would continue to achieve it.
● They have made 12 new launches in this quarter and which were all around health and hygiene and sanitizers and all. In the times to come, they are planning to get into the home hygiene products which may include disinfectants, toilet cleaners and bathroom cleaners and other things.
● Rural demand has picked up well, in fact, it is visible in the rural areas compared to the urban but there is no significant down trading on LUPs.
● They have initiated so many things, they have done digital marketing because their focus is more on addressing the consumers digitally without physical touch so while the retail and modern trade has been impacted, and they are exploring other channels also.
● They are doing a lot many initiatives by telemarketing, digital marketing, tele-calling for taking the orders and ensuring that the supplies are done on time. In fact, the E-commerce business has more than doubled in this first quarter despite such a decline and it is continuing to grow.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing.com websites)

● The closing price of Emami was ₹ 337/- as of 11-August-2020. It traded at 34x/ 31x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 9.9/ 10.8 for FY21E/22E respectively.
● The consensus price target is ₹ 301/- which trades at 28x the earnings estimate for FY22E of ₹ 10.8/-
Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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03 Aug

It’s business as Usual – Dabur India

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, disappointing US GDP data led to weakness in the broader Asian markets. Nifty50 ended 0.3% lower at 11,074. PHARMA (+3.6%), PSU BANK (+1.4%), and REALTY (+1.4%) led the sectoral gainers while MEDIA (-0.9%), FINANCIAL SERVICES (-0.6%), and PRIVATE BANK (-0.3%) led the laggards. Among the stocks, SUNPHARMA (+5.5%), CIPLA (+5.1%), and GRASIM (+5.0%) were the top gainers while EICHERMOT (-2.7%), RELIANCE (-1.8%), and HDFCBANK (-1.7%) led the losers.

Mr. Mohit Malhotra, CEO, Dabur India discussed the company’s 1QFY21 performance with CNBC TV-18 on 31st July 2020. Here are the edited excerpts:

  • In oral care, the toothpaste category declined 18.8% in volume terms. In terms of primary sales, grew 2.6% with Dabur Red growing ~8%. They gained market share of 63bps to reach an all-time high of 16.1% market share in toothpaste. In the markets of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Chennai, Dabur is the number 1 brand in the toothpaste category.
  • Sequentially, the business has only improved. Witnessed a decline of 40% in April, in May saw growth of 2%. In June, growth is back to pre-covid levels of 6-7%, as the pipeline filling is happening.
  • July also saw a similar trend, though pipeline filling has happened. This is because DIL’s portfolio has clear tailwinds due to the focus on the healthcare portfolio.
  • Although there are certain categories and certain geographical areas that are still not performing well, overall, DIL is back to pre-covid levels.
  • Healthcare, immunity, and hygiene categories are definitely seeing a tailwind. Despite the healthcare business going down by ~40% in April has shown a growth of 30% plus.
  • The Health & Personal care and Food categories are dragging the performance. Items such as hair oils, skincare, and home care which are more discretionary in nature are not performing as well. The out-of-home consumption is majorly impacted since people are not going out, consumption of 200ml juices has declined.
  • The modern trade channel has declined by almost 25% during the quarter and continues to remain under pressure. Department stores such as Big Bazaar and DMart continue to operate below the normal levels. The open format outlets which offer home delivery to consumers are doing better. E-commerce channel has seen significant growth.
  • Other channels not performing include Horeca, institutional and enterprise business.
  • Barring localized lockdowns, all states seem to be doing well. The highest growth trajectory is seen in the Southern parts of India.
  • The rural markets have always performed very well for Dabur and there is a 1000bps difference in the rural performance vs urban performance.
  • The company is on the growth path now and looking at low to mid-single-digit growth in 2QFY20, with the tailwinds for the healthcare products and new products. Mr Malhotra is of the opinion these tailwinds are here to stay. With the penetration of products like Chyawanprash increasing, habits are formed and these habits will last even if Covid disappears.
  • The HPC category has seen benign raw material and packaging material costs. In healthcare, the surge in demand has caused a 3% inflation in the price of the herbs, which has been offset to a certain extent by an increase in prices. Overall, there will be margin improvement as the healthcare category which is margin accretive grows.
  • DIL is looking to do a capex of Rs 3000-3500 mn in line with business requirements.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Dabur India was ₹ 513/- as of 31-July-2020. It traded at 55x/ 48x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 9.3/10.7 per share for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 507/- implies a PE multiple of 47x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 10.7/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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12 Jun

We are committed to reaching normalcy by 4QFY21: Titan MD

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Thursday, Nifty ended 2.1% lower at 9,902. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were IndusInd bank (+4.3%), Hero Motocorp (+0.8%) and Nestle India (+0.8%) while the losing stocks for the Infratel (-8.9%), ZEEL (-6.7%) and SBI (-5.6%). All the sectors ended in the red zone. The top losing sectors were PSU Bank (-3.9%), Metal (-2.8%) and Bank (-2.7%).

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr CK Venkataraman, MD, Titan Company Ltd; dated 10th June 2020 from Retail Economic Times:

  • Titan stores have started opening from the first week of May and as of 9th June 2020 nearly 80% of their stores have opened and some of them had seen a four-week run. Titan is trying to get a sense of the trend and it seems that the trend is currently varying across different formats perhaps because there are underlying reasons for people to buy those products.
  • The company had started on a cost erosion programme at the end of CY19, without any idea that COVID is going to come the way and therefore it was a very good thing that Titan had reached a certain momentum and some of that showed up in quarter four of FY20 performance and that momentum will continue to carry that effort into FY21 as well.
  • The sales levels of FY21E are very uncertain. At the moment, Titan is not seeing any major impact on the gross margins of the various product categories despite pressures. The operating margin or the profit margin for the business will be determined by the final sale level the Company will reach for the year which is very difficult to determine.
  • Titan needs to work on creating a desire for products in the customers’ mind even when they are sitting at home. It would involve either getting them to come to the stores or enabling them to buy from home.
  • Marriages are now going to be less grand and the families are going to have more money in their hands which they have not spent on five-star hotels or catering for 2,000 people at lunch and dinner and so on. The industry as well Titan can influence them to flow into jewellery purchase. Thus, Titan bets there to be a higher demand for jewellery.
  • Demand is going to be sluggish but the basic need of people to socialise is not going to go. He is sure that in three-four months from now, people will start doing that and their products will become part of that socialising.
  • Innovation will help the Company in CY2021E.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener and investing websites)

  • The closing price of Titan Company Ltd was ₹ 951/- as of 11-June-2020. It traded at 74.9x/ 44.0x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 12.7/21.6 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 1036/- implies a PE multiple of 48.0x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 21.6/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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03 Jun

We have a very healthy cash surplus of over Rs 3,800 crores: Dabur

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Tuesday, Nifty ended 1.6% higher at 9,979. The top gainers for Nifty 50 were Bajaj Finserv (+9.5%), Zee Entertainment (+9.1%) and Bajaj Finance (+8.2%) while the losing stocks for the day Coal India (-3.3%), Maruti (-1.9%) and BPCL (-1.4%). The gaining sectors for the day were Realty (+4.9%), Media (+3.3%) and Pvt Bank (+3.2%). FMCG (-0.7%) was the only losing sector for the day.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Lalit Malik, CFO, Dabur India Ltd; dated 29th May 2020 from Retail Economic Times:

 

  • Volume growth has seen a decline of 14.6% in 4QFY20 for Dabur which was the lowest growth in 11 quarters. The growth was on track till February and the Company was ahead of other FMCG companies. However, in March, due to the sudden lockdown, there was a supply chain blockage and Dabur was not able to invoice which was due even in case of seasonal goods like juices, glucose etc. This caused a decline of 14.6% in the India FMCG business.
  • For the juice and glucose categories, it was the peak season for the Company, given the summer setting in. If things were normal, Dabur’s growth would have been on track.
  • The healthcare segment of Dabur saw a slow opening in the middle of April. With the launch of the sanitizer during this period, Dabur has gained momentum and things may have been much better.
  • At present, though all manufacturing units are open, Dabur is working at 60-70% capacity. As far as the supply side is concerned with regard to the C&F as well as to the distributors, barring a few areas which are in the red zone and where there are restrictions with regard to supply, other categories including rural have returned to normal.
  • Mr Malik added, E-commerce has been growing at the rate of more than 100%. There are different channels which are giving promising returns in the new normal. However, there are still some pockets which are in the red zone where there are some restrictions and Dabur is waiting for that to get normal so that they will be back to 100%.
  • Dabur has a very healthy cash surplus which is more than Rs 3,800 crores. They don’t see any stress to their balance sheet or liquidity. The Company is being careful with regards to their working capital management as well as its operating cash flow.
  • With 60-70% running capacity, the Company sees no major deviation with regard to their inventory pile-up or shortage because they are monitoring the demand and supply side very carefully. For example, their healthcare category is moving at a faster pace. In the case of Chyawanprash, the growth rate is almost 400%. Thus, Dabur has accelerated production and therefore they are able to meet the increase in demand. There are different pockets where the demand is increasing and therefore they have increased their production and supply.
  • At present, the discretionary item demand is slow and this is where the Company is going slowly with regard to production so that they are able to manage the inventory and there is no loss of sale in case demand comes back.
  • Dabur has extended its village coverage by 52,000 though the target was to reach 65,000 villages because of the lockdown, they were not able to expand.
  • In the current scenario, there are two very important things according to Mr Malik:
  1. It is very important to have healthcare products that they manufacture to be made available to people at large because that is a need in the country right now. Therefore, their focus is to have all their products like Chyawanprash, Tulsi drop, Haldi drop, Giloy etc., made available to the people as these are all immunity boosters.
  2. On the hygiene and sanitiser front, their focus is to reach out. When volumes are affected, there would certainly be pressure on the margins. For that, they have undertaken a cost savings initiative under project Samridhi, where they are focussing on zero-base budgeting and questioning every line item of expenditure and addressing what is essential for them in the new normal scenario.

 

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Dabur India Ltd was ₹ 461/- as of 02-June-2020. It traded at 51.5x/ 44.8x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 8.9/10.3 for FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price of ₹ 463/- implies a PE multiple of 45.0x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 10.3/-.

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

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21 May

We are all about Made in India, Made for India– Nestle India

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Monday, Nifty closed higher (+2.1%) at 9,067. Within NIFTY50, DRREDDY (+5.9%), HDFC (+5.9%), and M&M (+5.7%) were the top gainers, while INFRATEL (-7.0%), INDUSINDBK (-2.6%) and HEROMOTOCO (-2.3%) were the top losers. All the sectoral indices gained in the session led by PHARMA (+4.1%), FIN SERVICE (+3.1%) and MEDIA (+2.4%).

We are all about Made in India, Made for India– Nestle India

Excerpts of an interview with Mr.Suresh Narayanan, Chairman, & MD –Nestle India published in Business Standard dated 20th May 2020:

  • Nestle has not been able to establish contact with all retail partners yet and does not have the exact count of stock in trade channel. As a result, it is difficult to quantify the business impact caused by the lockdown.
  • Nestle’s manufacturing had come to a halt and is gradually being ramped up to 70% of capacity.
  • On being asked whether the loss in business since April 1 could be at least 30%, Mr. Narayanan said that the impact could be higher than that.
  • Narayanan expressed that PM Modi’s call for swadeshi was misinterpreted by some. Nestle India is all about Made in India, Made for India, and serving India and Indian customers. Nestle is operating in India for the last 108 years, employees 7,200 Indians, works with over 100,000 Indian farmers and contributes ~ Rs 36,000 mn in taxes each year.
  • Narayanan observes that consumer preferences are changing. Many consumers may scale down due to poor consumer sentiment- leading to growth in popular products in essential categories. Some consumers may scale up towards safer/ more hygienic products. The shifting dynamics may lead to some product redundancy.
  • The ongoing reverse migration from urban to rural may boost rural market growth.
  • Nestle is working on its product portfolio to identify brands and products with better prospects. This exercise is also leading to a rescheduling of the innovation pipeline, wherein some projects may no longer be relevant. However, the pace of innovation will not slow down. Nestle has launched 50 products in last 3 years and will continue the trend.
  • Some operational issues still persist. Initial challenges like arranging trucks have become less severe. Obtaining permits (e-passes) for interstate transport is still an issue for Nestle. In terms of retail outlets, only 40%-50% have been activated so far.
  • Distribution in smaller towns and markets is better than large centers.
  • This crisis has accelerated e-commerce as a growth engine. Nestle has seen 90% jump in business through e-commerce (from 1.5% share of revenue a year ago to 3% now).
  • Narayanan expressed that he plans to be very conservative in terms of reopening of offices. The branch offices will remain shut for a few more weeks. Only the head office is functioning with a dozen employees vs. the capacity of 600. Even field executives have been allowed to operate only in green zones.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screenerand investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of NESTLEIND was ₹ 16,303/- as of 20-May-2020. It traded at 70.8x/ 59.5x the consensus EPS estimate of ₹ 230/ 274 for CY20E/ CY21E respectively.
  • Consensus target price of ₹ 16,464/- implies a PE multiple of 60.1x on CY21E EPS of ₹ 274

 

Disclaimer: “The views expressed are for information purposes only. The information provided herein should not be considered as investment advice or research recommendation. The users should rely on their own research and analysis and should consult their own investment advisors to determine the merit, risks, and suitability of the information provided.”

 

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16 Mar

Rural India has felt more of a squeeze from the slowdown, says Adi Godrej, chairman, Godrej Group

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY ended up 433 pts up (+4.5%) at above 10,023 level. It was an eventful and highly volatile session with significant gains after posting a record intra-day recovery. The Nifty50 index was locked in 10 per cent lower circuit early morning, prompting a halt in trading for 45 minutes. However, once the markets re-opened, the headline indices Sensex and Nifty shot up as much as 5,381 points and 1,604 points, respectively, from their early morning lows. The volatility index surged over 24 per cent during the session.

PSU Bank (+11.7%), Financial Services (+6.2%), and Metal (+6.5%) were the top performing sectors. Media (-0.6%) was the only loser for the day.

Among stocks, SBI (+14.9%), TATA Steel (+14.5%), and HDFC (+10.5%), were the top gainers. UPL (-7.2%) ZEEL (-4.2%) and NESTLE IND (-3.7%) were the top losers.

Rural India has felt more of a squeeze from the slowdown, says Adi Godrej, chairman, Godrej Group

While the discretionary spend in rural areas has not risen as per expectations, FY21 is likely to deliver better numbers than the ongoing fiscal, says Adi Godrej, Chairman of the Godrej Group.

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr Adi Godrej, Chairman of the Godrej Group; dated 13th March 2020:

When asked about his views on GST implementation he said that the implementation of GST has been good for the economy and it would not be correct to attribute the decline in GDP growth to the new tax regime. There are other factors like the China and US trade war or the killing of an Iranian general by the Americans that might have impacted the economy; we can’t be sure. So, it’s a combination of geopolitical and other factors that have affected GDP growth. He also added that there is no doubt that the economy has slowed down, but it will recover, if only slowly and expects FY21 to be better than FY20.
He commented that for FMCG products, the slowdown has been more pronounced in the rural areas, though rural growth was ahead earlier. The rural economy has been impacted by the slowdown in production and an irregular monsoon. Also, the discretionary spend of the rural population has not grown as per expectations. He expects to fare better in FY21, though a lot would depend on government policy going forward.
When asked about his suggestion on steps that should be taken by government to boost overall consumption, he suggested that there might be no tax on agriculture, but animal husbandry is taxed fully, bringing under the net income from poultry, dairy, fisheries, etc. which affects rural growth.
He informed that Godrej Agrovet was affected but it managed to recover from the lows and the business is expected to grow provided the government accepts the suggestion of treating animal husbandry on a par with agriculture.
He stated that Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) performed better in 3QFY20. The international businesses have been performing well as the economies there have done well, especially Indonesia, which is a large market for GCPL. The hair care business is rated number one in Africa; new products are being introduced in the haircare and repellant segments, besides those to prevent dengue and malaria.
When asked about the real estate business performance and company’s focus on residential or the commercial segment given the slowdown, he said that real estate business over the last two years we have had record sales and that the company will continue to grow both businesses though commercial segment as it is doing better. The factor contributing to such kind of growth even in a phase where construction projects are facing liquidity and demand-related obstacles is the reputation of the group and trust of the people on the brand.
When asked about his vision on India and Godrej group in next five to ten years he stated that he believes India has a great future. On purchasing power parity, India will be the largest economy in the world by 2050. At present, India is ranked third after China and the US and will overtake both. India will also overtake China on population. As far as the Godrej Group is concerned, it will keep growing faster than the economy.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com website)

The closing price of Godrej Consumer Products Ltd was ₹ 525/- as of 13rd March 2020. It traded at 36x/ 31x/ 28x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 15.6/18.1/20 respectively.
Consensus target price of ₹ 750/- implies a PE multiple of 37.5x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 20/-.

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09 Mar

Godrej Consumer confident of ramping up production when required says CEO Gambhir

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

On Friday, NIFTY closed 2.6% lower at 10980 because of the coronavirus scare and the Yes Bank crisis. RBI’s action of seizing control of Yes Bank and the possible consequences on the financial system weakened the market sentiments. The top losers for the day were Yes Bank (-54.9%), Tata Motors (-9.5%) and Zee (-7.3%). The few gaining stocks included Bajaj Auto (1.5%), GAIL (0.8%) and Maruti (0.4%).  All the sectors were in the red. The top losing sectors were Nifty PSU bank (-5.3%), Nifty Media (-4.8%) and Nifty Metal (-4.4%).

Excerpts from an interview of Mr. Vivek Gambhir, Managing Director and CEO, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd published in Live Mint dated 06th March 2020:

  • The surge in demand for hand sanitizers and soaps in the wake of fears of the COVID-19 epidemic will not have any significant impact on earnings for GCPL since it constitutes a small business segment.
  • The rabi harvest has been good and the demand from the rural market is expected to start picking up in the next one or two quarters.
  • The market is seeing a temporary demand in hand soaps, hand sanitizers, small soaps, and handwashes as well. GCPL has enough production capacity and will be ramping up the same to fulfill the demand.
  • According to Mr. Gambhir, the Company will definitely see some temporary spikes in demand mainly in April- May timeframe.
  • GCPL is rolling out some new digital campaigns to educate consumers about the coronavirus and what they can do to protect themselves.
  • The hand sanitizers and Rs 10 soaps are around 30% of the entire soap segment for the company. The company will see an uptick in demand but will not be material enough at this stage.
  • In regard to ramping up the production capacity, Mr. Gambhir said that they have enough production capacity to meet the increased demand and don’t see any challenges in meeting those demands. GCPL is also seeing some request for export orders from other parts of the world but these are relatively small numbers and won’t be material.
  • For the soap business in India, GCPL has seen strong volume growth in Q3 and has continued to gain market share in both their brands Godrej No 1 and Cinthol. There has been some value degrowth in this particular segment but the imbalance between volumes and value is expected to be corrected over the next couple of quarters. GCPL has taken a 5% hike in soap prices given some of the increases in palm oil derivatives. The Company will evaluate if there is a need for further increase in prices. With some price increases, the Company will be able to drive a better balance between volume growth and value growth. At the same time GCPL is intensifying some of its cost reduction programs and is hoping to maintain the margins. However, if it is required to take a dip in the margins for a quarter or two to drive the volumes, they are prepared for it.  Next year, the Company is expecting a better performance from both India and international business and on the margin front, they hope to sustain the levels if not improving.
  • FMCG sector has been experiencing challenges over the last few quarters with regards to a weakening consumer sentiment, sagging rural demand and liquidity pressures in the channel still continue.
  • GCPL expectation is that over the next one-two quarters, the industry will start seeing a recovery in demand particularly led by the rural sector which has been a big cause of concern.
  • The rural sector has been growing at 0.5x the growth rate which was 1.2x or 1.3x a few quarters ago. The deterioration in growth has been significantly fair. Recently there has been some gradual recovery because the rabi crops have been good. The rural inflation also augurs well for rural consumers. It is putting more money in the hands of farmers.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website)

  • The closing price of Godrej Consumer Product Ltd was ₹ 640/- as of 06-March-2020.  It traded at 41x/ 35x/ 32x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 15.6/18.1/20.0 for FY20E/FY21E/FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price is ₹ 754/- which implies a PE multiple of 38x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 20.0/-.
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02 Mar

Demand intact amid high gold prices and Coronavirus: Mr S. Subramaniam,Titan

Update on the Indian Equity Market:

Amid rising concerns over Coronavirus becoming a pandemic, major global indices witnessed heavy selling with markets falling in the range of 2.5- 4.5%. India was no exception to this as the Nifty fell 420 points (-3.6%) to close at 11,202. FIIs continued to be net sellers as they sold Rs 30,648mn on Friday. The depth of weakness in Friday’s market was such that 39 out of 50 stocks in the index fell more than 2% with VEDL (-12.8%), TATAMOTORS (-10.9%) and M&M (-8.0%) being the biggest losers. Only two stocks in the index, MARUTI (0.2%) and IOC (0.1%) survived the day on the positive side. All the sectoral indices fell in the range of -2.4% (FMCG) to -7.3% (METAL) with -5.3% (IT) and MEDIA (-4.9%) being the other two biggest losers.

Excerpts from an interview with Mr S. Subramaniam, CFO- Titan, published in CNBC TV-18 on 27th February 2020.

  • Gold prices in India have hit record high levels as investors tried to shift from risky asset classes to safe assets. Mr Subramaniam said that he is not sure if there is any major impact on consumption due to the increase in gold prices and Coronavirus.
  • About Coronavirus, he said that the impact on the business due to the virus is extremely remote or small. Although the company relies on some supplies for watches from China, as of now the stock situation is not deteriorating.
  • The increase in the price of gold has not affected the demand for the company. He cited two possible reasons for this; first, people are now looking at gold as something which will be going up over time and second, there’s wedding season going on in the country.
  • In January, he gave guidance for the revenue growth around 11-13% for the quarter. He reiterated the target again in the interview as he is confident of achieving the target.
  • He talked about the demand situation in the current market. It is quite expensive to buy gold at these elevated prices. At the same time, because of issues like Coronavirus and microeconomic global situation, people may start looking at gold as an investment. As a result, there may be a pick-up in demand on the back of ETF gold coins rather than the jewellery side. Jewellery is still driven by festivals and customary requirements.
  • In the eyewear and watch business, the demand situation was not bad in January. It is still low but not as bad as it was in December. He expects a reasonable quarter for both these segments. He stated that the demand situation is possibly at the bottom and the company might witness improvement in the future.

Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener website and investing.com websites)

  • The closing price of Titan was ₹ 1,254/- as of 28-February-2020.  It traded at 70x/ 55x/ 46x the consensus earnings estimate of ₹ 18.0/ 23.0/ 27.5 for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E respectively.
  • The consensus target price for Titan is ₹ 1276/- which implies a PE multiple of 46x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 27.5/- .
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24 Feb

Coronavirus impact likely from 1QFY21: Dilip Piramal Chairman, VIP Industries

Update on the Indian Equity Market:
On Thursday, Sensex ended up 152 pts lower and Nifty settled 45 pts lower at 12,080 level led by weekly expiry. Metal (+0.8%) and PSU Bank (+1%) were the top-performing sectors. NIFTY FMCG (-0.6%), NIFTY IT (-0.7%) and NIFTY Media (-0.6%) led the declining sectors. Among stocks, Cipla, Asian Paints, HUL and TCS were the top laggards, while gainers were INDUSIND Bank, Zee, SBI and Tata Steel.

Coronavirus impact likely from 1QFY21: Dilip Piramal Chairman, VIP Industries

Edited excerpts of an interview with Mr. Dilip Piramal, Chairman, VIP Industries; dated 19th February 2020:

Mr. Piramal said the Chinese companies’ accounts for 50% of its supplies.
Speaking about Coronavirus he said that this is an unprecedented situation and will have to see how this pans out. This will definitely have an impact on travel and on the general economy as China is a large supplier for most of the products in the world. But India is not so much part of the international economy as yet, so it could have some advantage.
The international travel is going to be affected on the whole as there will be some negative reaction.
China is a large part of VIP’s supply chain as VIP imports from China. The dependence on China is reducing gradually over the last few years.
Coronavirus is going to affect the whole luggage industry as it is dependent on China for finished goods, including the unorganised sector.
The factories in China have started after the Chinese New Year holidays with local workers last Monday, but that is still a small part of the overall employment.
Talking about the Supplies requirement from China, Mr. Piramal informed that 60% of the supplies for the Jun quarter are stocked up and there might be some delay, shortfall and may have to see some decline in revenues.
VIP’s supplies are now about 50% from China and the rest is sourced in India and Bangladesh.
When asked about the pricing scenario, Mr. Piramal commented that he doesn’t expect any price surge in the luggage industry but there will be some amount of firmness and decline in discounts and offers.
Mr. Piramal said that it is too early to comment on the sales growth to be expected in Jun quarter but they have stocked up and hopes that the stock levels go low and they don’t lose any sales.
Because of the downturn and loss of market share, the sales growth for 9MFY20 was less than 5%. The market share as of now stands at ~50%.
Consensus Estimate: (Source: market screener, investing.com website)

The closing price of VIP Industries was ₹ 450/- as of 20th February 2020. It traded at 34x/ 32x/ 26x the consensus EPS for FY20E/ FY21E/ FY22E of ₹ 13.4/14.4/17.7 respectively.
Consensus target price of ₹ 520/- implies a PE multiple of 29x on FY22E EPS of ₹ 17.7/-.

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